KABUL: Millions of Afghans will vote on Sunday for a national assembly and provincial councils, a milestone in Afghanistan’s difficult path to stability after the fall of the Taliban.

The vote will be a step forward to broadening representative government but analysts say the fledgling democracy remains fragile and many years of international support will be needed before it can stand on its own.

“People are really over-estimating what these elections will accomplish,” said Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University.

“Basic institutions are at a very poor state of development. Until Afghanistan has a functioning, legal economy and basic institutions, there’s nothing really for a parliament to do except act as a kind of puppet platform for people’s views.”

About 12 million of Afghanistan’s 25-28 million people are registered to vote in the UN-backed polls, the first of their kind since 1969. They follow presidential elections in October won by Hamid Karzai.

Critics say the voting system is likely to produce a fragmented parliament that is both conservative and parochial, and possibly more of a hindrance than a help to government.

The polls are being fought on a non-party basis but parties have candidates running and envisage parliamentary blocs. Opposition leader Yunus Qanuni, head of the National Understanding Front coalition, hopes to win 50 per cent of seats.

The election comes nearly four years after US-led forces overthrew the Taliban for refusing to give up Osama bin Laden, responsible for the Sept 11 attacks on US cities in 2001.

Since then the United States and its allies have spent tens of billions of dollars pursuing Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents and provided several more billion in reconstruction aid.

The engagement has brought Afghanistan its longest period of relative stability for more than a quarter of a century.

But Osama remains at large and thousands of foreign troops have been unable to subdue a Taliban insurgency that has worsened ahead of the polls. Meanwhile, frustration has been growing among Afghans about a lack of progress to improve their lives.

Analysts say a successful vote, with a high turnout despite Taliban intimidation, would be a significant boost for a US administration reeling from the fallout from Hurricane Katrina and its bloody involvement in Iraq.

The United Nations says the polls will not be perfect, given Taliban threats and questions about the past of some of the 5,800 candidates.

But it says Afghanistan badly needs more representative government after years of rule by presidential decree.

“In spite of existing insecurity, holding these elections is the right thing to do,” UN Special Representative Jean Arnault said in an interview. “Most Afghans are keen to have them.”

Karzai’s administration has drawn criticism over a perceived misuse of aid money and many have been disappointed by a failure to prosecute those responsible for war crimes and the fact that some of them are candidates.

Western governments have been disappointed that more has not been done to control the drugs trade.

Those standing in the election include several Taliban defectors, among them a former vice minister responsible for the notorious religious police, something that has bemused many Afghans.

“If they win, Afghanistan will return to the tragedy it suffered in the past, but people won’t vote for people with blood on their hands” said 58-year-old Abdul Majid Ghafory.

One of the assembly’s first jobs will be to approve Karzai’s ministers and already the opposition says some might not win their backing.

Analysts say the massive drug economy presents perhaps the biggest threat to stability, greater even than the Taliban.

“Taliban violence is manageable as long as Western countries are devoted to staying,” said Olivier Roy, of the French National Centre for Scientific Research.

“But drugs mean corruption, and as long as the local governor or police officer can make more money with drugs than from his salary, government will not work.”

Fallout from Hurricane Katrina and Iraq has raised concern that Washington might want to cut its commitment in Afghanistan, where it provides two thirds of foreign troops.

At the same time, doubts remain about the willingness of other Nato states to commit the men and resources for the alliance to take a greater counter-insurgency role.

James Dobbins, a former envoy to Afghanistan for George W. Bush and now with the Rand Corporation, said long-term international commitment was vital.

“Without the international presence, the country would begin to disintegrate again,” he said. “And if the commitment of the United States to help rebuild societies after conflicts is shown to be unreliable, it obviously has big implications for its capacity to make such commitments in future.”—Reuters