Afghan poll: some misgivings
By Amir Usman
BEFORE discussing the implications of the forthcoming elections for Afghanistan and the Afghan people, it is necessary to make one thing clear that it is not for the first time that the Afghans will be electing their representatives through adult franchise as is being made out by some apologists who would make us believe that in fact it is the American invasion and occupation that has brought to that country the twin blessings of elections and female education.
In fact, the Afghans have been choosing their representatives since the promulgation of the first constitution in 1923 under King Amanullah Khan. Then election started from the lowest administrative unit the “illaqadari” or village. Each village elected four persons who were to represent their area in the “Hukumati” or town council which was required to send its representatives to the “Hukumata-i-Kalan” and then to the district level and so on. This representative mechanism was to go up to the highest level known as Shura-i-Markazi. Thus the Afghan democratic experiment started at the grass-roots level and culminated at the highest level of the national parliament.
This process was continued by successive rulers with some variations till 1977 when the last election for 429 members of the Loya Jirga was held in January that year under the constitution promulgated by Sardar Daud Khan as the head of state. In fact, as against the bicameral legislature, which is the norm in democratic countries, Afghanistan used to have election for three tiers; the People’s Assembly or “Ulusi Jirga,” the Upper House or “da Masharano Jirga” and “Loya Jirga” or the Supreme Council.
The elections in the past were decreed by the constitution of the day promulgated by legitimate rulers and held under the supervision of an independent election commission. It was a purely Afghan affair, managed and supervized by Afghans themselves. There never was a complaint of manipulation, influence peddling or rigging. In fact in 1965 election, two diehard communists, namely Babrak Karmal of Parcham and Hafizullah Amin of Khalq, were duly elected.
The most impressive feature of the Afghan democracy was that the entire proceedings of the parliament were broadcast live by Radio Kabul. Contrast this with the environment in which the forthcoming elections are to be held. The country is under foreign occupation and governed by a coterie of persons imposed by the occupying power who have no roots among the people and the government’s writ, courtesy of the International Security Force, is confined only to the capital city.
Security and law and order are almost nonexistent. Major parts of the country are under warlords who owe allegiance to no one. The provincial governors and administration function through the courtesy of the local machos. What kind of election could or would be held in this environment is anybody’s guess.
Even otherwise the magnitude of the electoral process is mindboggling for a country like Afghanistan; 12.4 million voters voting for over 5,000 candidates, including 582 women for an assembly of 249 deputies in the lower house and an unspecified number in 34 provinces. This in a country which has no infrastructure worth the name and where the government is incapable of guaranteeing the safety of either the candidates or the voters.
The Brussels-based widely acclaimed International Crisis Group, in an analytical report on the Afghan elections has predicted the relative success of the election process only “if the electoral system enables a true reflection of popular will; if the election process, including registration and vote counting, is properly conducted. If overall security is sufficient to allow for a free and fair contest and if the elections are for institutions and properly defined roles and responsibilities.”
Meeting a criterion which is qualified by so many ifs and buts is not easy for many developing countries, much less for the present-day Afghanistan. The report also describes the weakness in the process by pinpointing the poor groundwork that has been done for the legislative or locally devolved bodies.” All eggs of state have been put in the basket of one man, the chief executive, President Hamid Karzai,” the report says. Some other prestigious international organizations have also expressed similar apprehensions.
Add to these institutional and administrative flaws the absence of any census figures, lack of authentic voters’ lists, discouraging political parties to openly work for their candidates, prohibiting the use of election symbols that is the only indication by which an illiterate voter can recognize his favourite candidate and vote for him, and you have a fairly accurate picture of the chaotic conditions in which over 12 million Afghans are supposed to exercise their right of franchise.
Considering the prevailing chaotic scenario, one is forced to question the necessity or the rationale of holding election at this stage when the country seems to be utterly unprepared for this critical exercise. Rationally considered, the election is bound to bring more chaos and further fragmentation of an already fractured society. To think that free, fair and impartial elections, reflecting the true will of the people, could be held in a country occupied by foreign forces and virtually ruled by warlords is asking for the moon. What then is the rationale for this undue hurry for holding election?
One reason that readily comes to mind is an American desire to leave Afghanistan at the earliest possible opportunity. The main impelling factor is the non-fulfilment, so far, of the pledges made and a timetable set at the Bonn conference of which holding of election was an important component and the culmination of the process. Once this is achieved, the Americans will have no justification for staying on in Afghanistan.
In fact, Americans have a very limited objective in Afghanistan which they are not prepared to admit publicly but which is a fact recognized by many American think-tanks and others. The foremost is the capture or elimination of Osama bin Laden and to ensure that his organization does not have the same friendly environment which was provided to it by the Taliban regime. Once this objective is achieved the Americans will then seriously think of quitting Afghanistan, leaving a subservient government in place.
Is election the panacea for all the problems that Afghanistan is currently facing? No keen and dispassionate observer of the Afghan scene will agree with this proposition. Election can be a blessing and a legitimate exercise only if it is held in a peaceful environment, free from intimidation, corruption and influence paddling. The electorate is to have a highly developed sense of civic responsibility and understands the value of vote. Also, that process has to be held under the supervision of an independent election commission that ensures that the entire process, before and during the election, is free fair and impartial.
In the current context, elections in Afghanistan will neither be free nor impartial and, consequently, will not solve the myriad problems that the country is facing, nor will it provide legitimacy to Mr Karzai that he is so desperately seeking. Warlordism will be further strengthened as most of warlords are contesting elections and are sure to win because of their power and money. This will give them the added advantage of exercising political power as people’s representatives.
The urgent need of Afghanistan, at the present juncture, is not election but reconciliation amongst the different factions of society. This will bring the much-desired unity that has been badly bruised because of the factional fighting in the last two decades. Once this is achieved, then, of course, elections should be held for a truly representative parliament
Afghans are very lucky as they now have a personality in their midst that is capable of bringing about the desired reconciliation. The former King Zahir shah is the only father figure who is respected by most of the Afghans because of his forty years’ benign rule. During this period Afghanistan saw record development in all fields. There is no doubt that the Afghans will listen to his call for reconciliation and unity. One also hopes that by now the Afghans have learnt a lesson from their self-inflicted misery and will be more amenable to heeding the voice of sanity and rationality.
The writer is a former ambassador.

