What chance IPI?

REPORTS emanating from Islamabad suggest that Pakistan, Iran and India are expected to start trilateral negotiations on the IPI gas pipeline by November. Given the uncertainty surrounding the fate of the project after the Americans expressed their reservations about it very vocally and India temporized for a while, one will have to wait to see if the talks are back on track. The 2,670-kilometre pipeline project has been on the cards since 1995. Initially it was stalled by the confrontationist nature of India-Pakistan relations in the ’90s which made a project of this kind difficult to implement. Now that the relations between the two neighbours have taken a turn for the better and they are cooperating in trade and economic ventures, the IPI pipeline prospects seem brighter. For Pakistan, the pipeline would facilitate the import of gas from Iran at a relatively low cost. It will also get substantial royalty on the gas which flows to India across its territory. The negotiations which were going quite smoothly until the first meeting of the India-Pakistan joint working group took place in July and agreed to set a timeframe for the project despite the US objections.

The project could be in the doldrums if the three partners do not assert themselves forcefully. When the Indian prime minister visited Washington last month, President Bush offered him advanced nuclear technology and soon thereafter Mr Manmohan Singh spoke of the pipeline project being “fraught with risks”. However, his petroleum minister dispelled the doubts that were created and though the project has not been scuttled, its pace has definitely been slowed down. Iran and Pakistan have said that they will proceed with their side of the project, but India’s enthusiasm appears to have been somewhat dampened. Thus, the joint working group’s meeting scheduled for end August has not been announced. Neither is India willing to sign an MoU with Iran. The trilateral meeting which is supposed to expedite matters does not ensure India’s participation since it is still waiting for a report from its consultants on transaction structure, selected risks and risk mitigation measures. This foot dragging on New Delhi’s part is a bit disappointing. More so now that the United States has stepped up its dabbling in oil and gas politics. The latest warning it issued was directed at Pakistan when the World Bank chief told leaders in Islamabad that the bank would not allow any international financial institution to finance the project.

Washington has also threatened to apply the ILSA of 1996 to impose sanctions against any country which invests more than $20 million in Iranian oil business. The only positive feature of this struggle for oil and gas is that Russia has also entered this area and has expressed its interest in the IPI pipeline project. This may prove to be a balancing factor and provide the smaller powers the counterweight they need in such a situation. There are several multilateral agreements on oil and gas — Qatar-Pakistan-Iran, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India and, of course, IPI — on the cards. With their need for energy growing as their economies grow, it is not advisable to restrict the South Asian countries in their quest for oil and gas. Politically, too, this approach which America has adopted is not a rational one. Hence, one hopes that India will give priority to its regional ties rather than allow itself to be browbeaten by American chauvinism.

Egypt’s electoral politics

PRESIDENT Hosni Mubarak’s election as president for a fifth term is almost certain, but it is the post-election scenario that will be full of possibilities. The Sept 7 vote is Egypt’s first presidential election. So far, Mr Mubarak has been the only candidate and “won” it each time by securing a yes vote of over 90 per cent. This time he is being challenged by no less than nine candidates who between them represent a wide spectrum of opposition to his 24-year-old autocratic rule. Evidently, the Egyptians no more buy the Mubarak line that stability is more important than democracy. The Sharm el-Sheikh blasts have been a blow to his image, and some people believe the bombs were set off by Egyptian opposition groups rather than Al Qaeda. Unfortunately, the Egyptian security apparatus has used the Sharm el-Sheikh episode to further oppress the opposition. No wonder, the left and right should have come together. Those in the anti-Mubarak alliance include the Moslem Brotherhood, the centre-rightist Ghada (Tomorrow), the liberal and revived Wafd Party, the Marxist Tagammu, and the Nasserites, besides the unofficial opposition Kefaya (Enough), which has been organizing street demonstrations. Also disgruntled are jobless college and university graduates. Mr Mubarak has tried to placate them by promising a new industrial and tourism policy that will create 700,000 new jobs. On the political front, he has pledged that the more than two-decade-old state of emergency will be lifted when a new anti-terrorism law is adopted. But many in the opposition doubt if he will keep his promise.

Mr Mubarak will, no doubt, secure a fifth term, but the Sept 7 election will unleash a new wave of opposition whose momentum he will find difficult to contain. The official permission for the nine candidates to contest the election means that the opposition will get a chance to contact the masses on a scale unknown in Egyptian history. This will help the opposition in the parliamentary elections due in November. Mr Mubarak has been Egypt’s ruler for 24 years, and it is time he institutionalized the process of transfer of power. Any attempt to foist his son on the Egyptian people (as reported) is bound to meet stiff resistance, and this could lead to chaos rather than stability.

Derailment at Malir

MERCIFULLY, the goods train derailment on Sunday at Malir in Karachi was not a catastrophic event like the July triple train collision in which over 150 people had died. It was nonetheless a tragic incident compounded by its being shrouded in mystery as authorities scramble to ascertain the cause of the accident. Railway authorities say that an explosion occurred on the Lahore-bound train while the police dispute the claim, citing technical fault as the cause of the derailment of about eight bogies of the train on the Malir railway bridge, which has also been damaged as a result. Traffic was disrupted and will return to normal as soon as the tracks are repaired and put back in place. As the bridge is the only link between Malir and Landhi stations, alternate arrangements were made for commuters, which must have caused some inconvenience. One of the guards’ swift act saved a potential calamity. Soon after the derailment, when he realized that two Karachi-bound trains were headed his way, he waved a red flag to get them to stop. Such acts are part of the job, but given that human error plays a major role in accidents, the guard’s quick response deserves special mention.

As far as blame and counter-blame go, this has become commonplace in Pakistan and one has come to ignore official behaviour in this respect. This is most unfortunate for it is imperative that the truth be ascertained in all such cases. Sunday’s derailing should not be allowed to rest as a minor accident; it requires proper investigation. Authorities need to determine whether the cause was technical fault or human error and then rectify things to avoid anything similar happening in the future. The railway remains a popular and comparatively cheap form of transportation of goods and people. Safety has to be a paramount concern.