TOKYO: When Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi sprang to power in 2001 he pledged to reform his ruling party’s hide-bound ways or destroy it in the attempt. Now Koizumi — headed for a showdown with ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) rebels over his pet project to reform the postal system — looks to be keeping that campaign pledge.
Parliament’s upper house is set to vote on Monday on bills to privatize the postal system in the 10 years beginning in 2007. Rejection of the legislation, the cornerstone of Koizumi’s economic reforms, could determine not only the fate of his government but whether the LDP stays in power or remains intact.
Koizumi has tacitly threatened to call a snap election if the bills are defeated, despite warnings the LDP could well lose.
“He believes in what he’s doing and he believes in changing the LDP,” said Gerald Curtis, a political science professor at New York’s Columbia University.
“He wants to destroy the old machine.”
Voters were growing fed up with the scandal-tainted LDP, in power for most of the past half-century, when the sound-bite savvy Koizumi with his wavy, silver hair turned his ‘Change the LDP, Change Japan’ slogan into a successful public appeal.
Koizumi has been bickering — and compromising — with his party’s old guard ever since.
He is now staking his legacy on achieving his dream of privatising the postal system, and risking political chaos to do so.
“At this point, he feels that people are not arguing about the content of the bills but just trying to get rid of him, and he’s not going to be gotten rid of that easily,” Curtis said.
Japan Post, with a network of almost 25,000 post offices and $3 trillion in assets, doesn’t just deliver mail. Japanese savers have made it the world’s biggest deposit-taking institution and its insurance business equals that of Japan’s four top private life insurers combined.
Koizumi’s LDP rivals have vowed to kill the legislation, which is designed to break up Japan Post and sell it off by 2017.
Many LDP lawmakers fear privatization would weaken their political machines, which have relied on powerful rural postmasters to get out the vote and on the system’s assets, as well as the state budget, to fund wasteful but popular public works projects.
Such tactics were perfected in an LDP faction founded by the late prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, a populist who was an arch rival of Koizumi’s own political mentor.
Scenarios for the outcome of the showdown abound.
Many analysts think the postal reform bills, which were approved by the powerful lower house by a mere five votes, will squeak through, maybe by an even slimmer margin, but agree it is hard to predict.
Some politicians say Koizumi may call an early election even if the legislation is passed as a way to restore his clout and purge the party of his opponents.
Party rebels insist Koizumi should resign if the bills are rejected, but analysts say he would almost certainly call a lower house election instead — a risky move since the main opposition Democrats are now seen as an increasingly viable alternative.
“It’s a great chance for Okada and the Democrats,” Curtis said, referring to Democratic Party leader Katsuya Okada.
“They could throw it away, but they have a good chance.”
LDP executives have threatened to withhold approval of those who vote against the bills as official party candidates in the next election, meaning a possible de facto split in the party.—Reuters
