AMMAN: Now that Sunni Arabs have been included, Iraq’s parliamentary committee that is drafting the new constitution is the closest to an elected, representative body that the country has ever seen.

In the two months that the committee now has to come up with the draft and in the referendum that will follow in October, it will become clear if that is enough to stabilise the country and reduce the violence.

It is by now a truism to say that the Sunnis, who ruled the country for centuries before the fall of Saddam Hussein two years ago despite being a minority, are largely responsible for the insurgency. They are said to be annoyed at their loss of power, and consequently income, and are fighting either to restore their old dominance or to cut a better deal. The coming months should show whether the rest of Iraq can cope with these issues and whether this really is what it is all about.

Early signs are not encouraging, especially from the Sunni side. While members of the Sunni political, social and religious groups that negotiated the deal to join the constitutional committee voiced hopes that their participation would increase peace and stability, the influential Sunni Committee of Muslim Scholars denounced the deal. “We can never accept any process orchestrated from behind the scenes by the occupation,” said Sheikh Abdel Salam al-Kubaisi from the Committee.

Such pronouncements should be taken seriously as they have in the past provided a clear indication of the mood among the insurgents. The phrasing of the denunciation also chimes with what other pro-insurgency politicians have said: any deal that flows from the post-invasion structure of the country will be rejected. The only possible solution for the hard-core militants is either a return of the pre-invasion government or to a government dominated by them.

The hard-core may not represent the whole Sunni population, and it is encouraging that the groups that negotiated participation in the constitutional committee in the end accepted a compromise of 17 seats. That will give them two more seats on the 70-member committee than the Kurds to whom they are roughly equal in size. But it is well below the 27 that the Sunnis had demanded.

Iraq’s Shias make up approximately 60 per cent of the country’s 26 million people, with the Kurds and the Sunnis both on 16-20 per cent, and other minorities such as Christians making up the rest.

That the Sunnis have now joined the constitution drafting process is seen as a sign that they are willing to join the political system after having largely boycotted January’s parliamentary elections. They only hold 17 seats in the 275-member Council.

Another positive sign is the apparent willingness of the government of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari to embrace inclusiveness, albeit after US urging. But powerful Shia leaders, such as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, have made very clear that they will not tolerate any challenges to the political dominance of their group in the new Iraq, based on their majority. How much leeway he will give the Shia politicians may well depend on how his more radical, and anti-American rival Moqtada Sadr reacts to the constitutional process.

All groups are restrained by the terms of the interim constitution under which the new one is being drafted. The final document will first have to be approved by parliament but then it will face a much tougher hurdle in a referendum that is set for October. In that poll, the draft will have to get the nod from at least 16 out of Iraq’s 18 governorates. Four governorates have Sunni majorities, giving them a blocking vote.

If the constitution is rejected, new elections will follow and the process will start all over again, which may be an attractive option for the Sunnis who feel seriously underrepresented, and for the insurgents who could see a chance to wreak more havoc.

Ironically, it may also suit the Bush Administration since it would give the United States more reason to keep its troops in Iraq. Following a dip in support for the war among Americans, some lawmakers have demanded an early exit, by the beginning of next year. The Administration has rejected this. Even without all this, it would be hard to see whether Iraqis can ever draw up a constitution that will reconcile the positions of all groups. Unfortunately this has little to do with high-minded demands and more with a fight over the division of the spoils.

It is hard to see, for example, how Kurds and Sunnis will resolve their disagreement over the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk, which is claimed by both. And will oil income from the Shia south be shared with the rest of the country? Will the presidency, the prime minister’s position and central government ministries be assigned on a sectarian basis? And what about government contracts and jobs? Because that is what it is all about, with each group demanding its share and not having any confidence that a neutral system will emerge.

On questions of principle, the divisions run at least as deep. Kurdish autonomy is a foregone conclusion but how about the role of Islam in the country? Kurds are dead set against it, Shias are in favour of a strong Islamic flavour, and Sunnis are somewhere in the middle, in favour of their own brand of Islam but furiously opposed to what they see as the “Iranian” tendencies of the Shias.

In the end Iraq may not be able to solve all these questions and the only thing that may really count is strengthening of the army and the security forces so that a central government can impose its will on reluctant parts of society. Unfortunately, progress towards that goal is extremely slow and uneven. Iraqis who see that the government has no power to impose its own laws may be even less inclined to vote for a then meaningless constitution.—Dawn/IPS News Service

IF we were to try and put aside the conventional cynicism of Karachiite and look at the reported news item “CS takes notice of street crime”, there is perhaps some reason to believe that the glass is half full. At least street crime is noticed, talked about in official circles, and the chief secretary has reportedly taken notice of the “increasing incidents of robbery and street crime”.

Indeed street crime is talked about in town and unfortunately most citizens are scared about being out on the street alone or in company. The fact that streets appear crowded and there is far more police presence, including the Rangers and private armed security, do not diminish in any way the aspect that a citizen is far more a wary person on the street than he has ever been in history. For all the reassurance that emanates from corridors of officialdom, there is uncanny feeling that something unexpected can always strike.   

One has frequently heard from citizens of how they have been held up, and robbed. I am distracted here by a shocking and fearful account I have heard from a colleague who was targeted by a mob in Gulshan-i-Iqbal near NIPA Chowrangi on May 30. He and his wife survived the attack. After three weeks now, they are still in a state of fear. His wife still wakes up at night at times and begins crying in fear. (This is a face of Karachi, I may add). The mob set his car on fire, I state here for the record. The attackers tried their best to ensure that the couple remain trapped in the small Suzuki. There was a bit of a tussle between the young men in the mob, and the couple managed to get out of the vehicle. They ran for their lives, and were pursued, for reasons they can’t understand. This colleague revealed that he wrote letters to the editor of five dailies, but none was published. One newspaper regretted that the subject was too sensitive to be published, he told me.   

One is heartened to see that the chief secretary has focused on street crime now. He took notice of certain incidents that were reported in print media, which included robberies in Gulshan-i-Iqbal and Liaquatabad, then snatching of Rs42,000 from a journalist in town (allegedly done by a police mobile, said a PPI story); as well as looting of minibus passengers in Lyari. The PPI story underlines that the chief secretary expressed “grave concern” at these news reports and asked IGP and CCPO to take steps for coping with such incidents.  

As one writes this thought goes back to the streets of Karachi, as they were in the past. They were never so unsafe, and one citizen disagrees with the premise that we can dismiss it all as “urban crime”. He says that street crime, at times small, petty, and quickly executed is symptomatic of the breakdown of neighbourhood values and affinity. Other aspects like hard economic times and unemployment are aggravating factors or primary factors. He recalls the times when neighbours knew each other and there was a meaningful, reasonable interaction between them. One Karachiite observes that today there is either indifference to neighbours or ignorance; in some instances a hostility. The reasons could be political.    

Of course Karachi is a political city and with the local government elections coming up in the next two months, some uneasy thoughts about what could happen come to mind. What will be its impact on the street rather street crime? The common man does wonder and hopes that it doesn’t mean that disorder lies ahead. A Karachiite I spoke to referred to the current spate of violence and wondered why there is this recurring restlessness and related unhappiness. People die, property is destroyed, and the damage done to the collective psyche is deeper than what we can imagine. It may not show in the form of street crime, strictly speaking, but it does make the streets unsafe.    

One well-known cause of our streets being unsafe is the snatching of vehicles and cellular phones. The growth in this crime has impacted how we use mobile phones in public. It has certainly made people more conscious of the need to be careful with their vehicles, and in and around them. Inside cars, people keep windows closed, if they can. And car doors are locked! Hence I have often heard colleagues talking of the need to be street smart now. It is time to teach family members the art of being street smart in markets and shopping areas. Sometimes criminals operate smoothly and swiftly at such places that no one but the victim knows. Of course, this is done at gun point. There may be police in the vicinity totally unaware of what is happening.    

Street crime in Karachi needs to be focused upon frequently, as street safety cannot be taken for granted. Given our changing society and the gulf between the rich and the poor as well as the inadequacy of the police force, street crime could pose a huge challenge in the days ahead, opined some Karachiites. One of them spoke out his apprehensions: “I feel very unsafe in Saddar when I walk alone. I have heard so many stories of people being held up at gunpoint.” Is more policing the answer to street crime?