BERLIN: In politics there is no such thing as a sure-fire bet. But pollsters say German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s defeat at the hands of the conservatives is almost certain. “No party has ever had such a huge lead going into an election,” said Klaus-Peter Schoeppner, head of the Emnid polling institute. “(An SPD win) would require an issue that turned everything on its head, something quite extraordinary.”

Schroeder has staged dramatic revivals before. In 2002, he came from behind to catch challenger Edmund Stoiber, winning crucial backers in the final weeks of the campaign due to his able handling of floods in the east and resolute opposition to the looming US-led Iraq war.

But in the run-up to that election, Schroeder’s Social Democrats (SPD) trailed Stoiber’s conservatives (CDU/ CSU) by no more than 10 points in the polls.

Now his party sits 20 points behind Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, with only three months to go until voters cast their ballots.

Complicating Schroeder’s task this time is the large number of traditional SPD voters that have abandoned the party in recent years.

Schroeder secured victory in 2002 by mobilizing disaffected SPD supporters, who had threatened not to vote, but pollsters say repeating that feat is virtually impossible — even if the torrential rains of 2002 return.

Manfred Guellner, head of the Forsa polling institute, says that of Germans who voted SPD last time, around half say they will do so again, just under 30 per cent are undecided, while just over 20 per cent have moved to other parties, many to Merkel’s Christian Democrats.

“It means, even if they mobilize all the undecided voters, they’ll still fall short. Winning voters back from other parties is a huge task,” he said. “I see nothing that can help them.”

Some polling institutes remain cautious in their wording after getting burned by inaccurate predictions last time, yet the message is clear.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper said this week the SPD was heading not just for defeat, but for a disaster and carried an Allensbach institute poll with more grim news for the chancellor.—Reuters