TEHRAN, June 15: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who wants better ties with the West, remained favourite for president on the last day of campaigning on Wednesday, but was far from sure of winning the closest election in Iran’s history. Friday’s vote may determine how Iran handles its atomic standoff with the West and whether it sticks to the bumpy path of reform initiated by outgoing cleric Mohammad Khatami.
The campaign has broken taboos in the Islamic state with many of the eight candidates pledging to resume talks with Washington and some employing roller-blading girls to hand out campaign leaflets to appeal to young voters.
Rafsanjani, 70, bidding to regain the post he held from 1989 to 1997, told CNN on Tuesday the time was right for a “new chapter” in Iran-U.S. ties, but said Washington should gain Iran’s trust by unblocking billions of dollar of frozen assets.
Polls in the country of 67 million people show the canny pragmatist, who masterminded arms-for-hostages swaps with the United States in the 1980s, remains short of the 50 percent support he needs to avoid a run-off against his closest rival.
His nearest challengers are reformist Mostafa Moin, 54, who has pledged to tackle human rights abuses, and conservative Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, 43, an ex-police chief rumoured to enjoy the backing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
An upset Moin victory could not be ruled out and the outcome of a Rafsanjani run-off against Moin or Qalibaf, possibly on June 24, would be hard to predict, analysts said.
Iran’s clerical leadership wants a high turnout to bolster the Islamic state’s legitimacy at a time when U.S. troops are stationed in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Iranians should cast their votes to protect the country, preserve its interests and inject fresh blood into the veins of this system,” Khamenei said on Wednesday.
TACTICAL VOTING: Voters like 36-year-old architect Maziar, keen to avoid a reverse of the limited social freedoms Iranians now enjoy after eight years under Khatami, said they would vote for Rafsanjani on Friday but then swing behind Moin if he forced a run-off.
“We don’t want to return to the past and have a president who will lead us into confrontation with the West,” he said. “The important thing is to keep the hardliners out.”
Hardliners, for whom a Moin-Rafsanjani run-off is a worst-case scenario, have also begun to think tactically after the four conservative candidates in the race failed to agree on a single presidential nominee.
“The probability is high that none of the loyalist (conservative) candidates will go to the second round,” wrote Hossein Shariatmadari, the influential editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan daily.
Without naming Qalibaf directly, Shariatmadari, who was appointed by Khamenei, said conservatives should vote in favour of the most popular conservative candidate.
“The loyalists know whom not to vote for ... The most reasonable course of action would be to vote for a candidate who has the best chance of getting more votes,” agreed Resalat, another hardline newspaper.
Analysts said Rafsanjani, favoured by Iran’s business elite and by many in the West who believe he has the political savvy and influence to mend ties with Washington and open up the state-heavy economy, had run a poor campaign.
Unlike Qalibaf and Moin, who have criss-crossed the country and targeted the many undecided Iranians, Rafsanjani has relied on his unrivalled name recognition and stayed in Tehran.
“Rafsanjani is still the front-runner but his campaign has not been very good in terms of presentation,” said political analyst Mahmoud Alinejad.
With half of Iranians aged under 25 and a voting age of 15, all candidates have targeted young voters.
Rafsanjani and Moin fielded questions about sex, satellite television and Islam from youngsters in TV ads while Qalibaf’s stylish campaign posters show the former Revolutionary Guards commander smiling benignly in a tailored suit. —Reuters
