TEHRAN: Iran’s nuclear programme stirs national pride across the Islamic Republic even if it has been the focus of a tense standoff with the West. But after years of isolation, some Iranians preparing for Friday’s presidential elections worry they may be paying too dear a price to master atomic power.
Western states are pressing Iran with a mixture of threats and incentives to scrap an enrichment programme that Iran says will be used to generate electricity but which the United States and Europeans suspect may be used for making atomic bombs.
“If the result would be similar to North Korea, where the people have a low standard of living but are making the atomic bomb, then we don’t want that,” said 45-year-old Abbas, who asked that his full name not be used in this sensitive debate.
The topic is so sensitive, that while other taboos — such as discussing ties with arch-foe United States or reviewing strict religious social laws — have become fair game in the campaign, none of the eight hopefuls has offered fresh ideas on breaking the nuclear impasse with the West.
Reformist and conservative candidates say Iran has the right to enrich uranium, and that is where debate has largely ended.
Yet, even if there is little to choose between the candidate’s public statements, analysts say only one candidate has the experience and authority to cut a deal with Iran’s powerful international critics — frontrunner and conservative cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
“Rafsanjani seems to be the most capable and most powerful candidate in the field. He would bring to the presidency his own power base that would perhaps balance some of the influence of Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei),” said Joseph Ciricione at the US Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Whoever is elected in Friday’s presidential race, the final word on matters of state rests with the supreme leader.
“Most of the power in Iran is in our leader’s hands ... It’s not very important who is going to be president,” said 40-year-old carpet salesman Ali, one of Iran’s many disenchanted voters. But he still sees Rafsanjani as Iran’s “second power”.
Rafsanjani, who leads the field in the polls but well short of the 50 per cent needed to win in a first round, has said his relations with Khamenei will be decisive in the nuclear debate.
“Regarding nuclear and other issues (US relations), I believe I am the closest person to the leader,” said the wily cleric who has already held office as president from 1989-97.
The alternatives to him are recipes for deadlock, analysts say. Mostafa Moin, a reformist in second place in the polls, has been alone in hinting he would extend a deal to suspend enrichment that was reached with European states in November.
But analysts say a Moin presidency would lead to policy gridlock, just as outgoing reformist President Mohammad Khatami’s policies have been blocked at every turn by hardliners in the courts and armed forces during his eight years of office.
“If you get Moin, you get a dysfunctional government that is not going to be able to cut a deal,” said Clifford Kupchan, a US-based Iran expert and former State Department official.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a conservative former Revolutionary Guard running third in the polls, is likely to be too close to Khamanei to broker a compromise, he added.
While some voters fear more isolation without a resolution of the nuclear issue, many stand staunchly behind the programme saying it is needed for Iran’s long-term energy security, despite the country’s massive oil and gas reserves.
“Iran has to continue its nuclear policy and the process of nuclear enrichment because this is not a monopoly of one or two countries, other countries have the right too,” said Ali, a 22-year-old student and part-time grocery shop worker.
Any compromise will be a hard sell for whoever wins.
The European trio of Britain, France and Germany who have been negotiating with Iran have promised to provide economic and political incentives to Iran by the end of July or early August.
If a deal fails, Iran would likely find its case before the UN Security Council, where it could face further international isolation via sanctions, although analysts say permanent members China and Russia are unlikely to back such a step.
Analysts said they believed Washington had not ruled out strikes against nuclear sites if diplomacy fails even though they say the impact may be limited and only bolster domestic support for Iran’s political leaders.
“It is very unlikely to be effective because Iran’s nuclear facilities ... are too dispersed,” said Shannon Kile at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “They might slow down Iran’s programme but the certainly wouldn’t stop it.”
Iranian negotiators have in the past rejected the few incentives offered in its talks with Europe as insignificant.
“It’s just indispensable. Somewhere in that formula, the US have to have a leading role,” said Kile.
Only the United States can offer incentives Iran wants, such as normalising US ties broken after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and security guarantees for Iran, which frets about US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and at bases in the Persian Gulf, analysts say.
Washington has signalled its readiness to join in by dropping opposition to Iran’s World Trade Organisation accession talks. But a US-Iranian “grand bargain” may still be some way off when Washington accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism.
“They don’t want to legitimise what they view as a fundamentally illegitimate regime,” said Kupchan.—Reuters
