BEIRUT: The emergence of Michel Aoun as undisputed leader of Lebanon’s long-marginalised Christians leaves the anti-Syrian opposition in disarray but could restore some equilibrium to the country’s sectarian balance. Weeks after returning from exile, the former general who staked his political career on opposition to Syria’s role in Lebanon has driven prominent anti-Syrian Christian rivals out of parliament in the first election since Damascus pulled its troops out of the country in April.
“Yesterday’s election confirmed that Aoun is the prime leader in the Christian community with the widest support in the traditional Maronite Christian heartland,” political analyst Paul Salem told Reuters.
“He has completely changed the balance of power within the Christian community and become its dominant.”
Lebanon’s anti-Syrian opposition capitalised on the outpouring of anger over the February killing of Sunni Muslim former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri to demand Damascus end its 29-year military presence.
They urged Aoun’s return from 14 years of exile in Paris, but gave the soldier-turned-politician the cold shoulder when he came back and excluded him from their electoral alliances.
Aoun, who launched a “war of liberation” against Syrian forces in Lebanon at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, was forced into exile when his revolt failed. That ushered in 15 years of peace under a Syrian-imposed order that undercut the traditional domination of the Maronite Christian community.
In 1994, Maronite former warlord Samir Geagea was jailed, increasing feelings of marginalisation among Christians.
He remains in jail, though most anti-Syrian politicians, including Aoun, have publicly called for his release.
“Hariri had established himself as Sunni leader, Jumblatt consolidated his place as Druze leader as Hizbollah did among the Shias,” said Sami Baroudi, political science professor at the Lebanese-American University.
“The Christians wanted a strong leader of their own.”
Aoun joined forces with pro-Syrian politicans in a series of unlikely alliances that turned the tables on the rest of the opposition and shattered their campaign to throw out President Emile Lahoud and replace him with one of their own.
Aoun and his electoral allies are unlikely to dominate the next 128-seat parliament, but analysts say they will have enough clout to paralyse the opposition’s plans.—Reuters
