JOHANNESBURG: South African President Thabo Mbeki is struggling with his biggest leadership challenge and his ruling ANC appears on the verge of a damaging split over a corruption scandal swirling around his deputy. Deputy President Jacob Zuma has openly refused to step down after a high court judge found that he had a “generally corrupt” relationship with his former financial adviser Schabir Shaik.
Justice Hilary Squires last week sentenced Shaik to 15 years in jail for fraud and corruption. Zuma had not been charged but the judgment, running into hundreds of pages, was full of references to a corrupt association between the two men.
Mbeki’s total silence in the week since Shaik’s sentencing in the Durban High Court has drawn flak from the opposition, media and analysts, many ridiculing his anti-corruption campaign and championship of good governance in Africa.
In the meantime Zuma, a folksy and wily politician who fires up African National Congress (ANC) rallies by leading party followers in song and dance, has drummed up support among the rank and file of the party and its union and communist allies.
The presidency announced on Monday that Mbeki would address parliament on Tuesday on the Zuma issue, but many analysts said he had left things too late and had probably damaged his presidency by a lack of decisive action.
“Mbeki was very ill-advised not to act immediately. He has weakened himself,” said John Kane-Berman, chief executive of the South African Institute of Race Relations.
“But the fact that a degree of support for Jacob Zuma seems to have built up I think makes it more important than ever that Mbeki dismisses him because he needs to send a very, very clear message in the country that corruption will not be tolerated,” Kane-Berman told Reuters.
Zuma’s name came up almost daily in the eight month trial of Shaik, stemming from a huge arms contract with a French firm. Among other things, he was accused of bribing Zuma in return for official protection.
Zuma has consistently maintained his innocence. He repeated after the verdict against Shaik that he himself had never been charged in court. Prosecutors said in 2003 that despite prima facie evidence against Zuma they could not win a conviction.
Since the verdict, Zuma has blamed politics for his plight and received support from ANC structures, including a standing ovation in parliament. By contrast, Mbeki’s promise of action after Shaik’s sentencing failed to materialise.
William Gumede, author of a recent critical book “Thabo Mbeki and the fight for the soul of the ANC”, said ideological opponents of the president within the ANC had turned the Zuma affair into a judgment on Mbeki’s style.
“They accuse him of not consulting, ruling by decree, not thinking of the party’s Left. That has been a simmering thing for sometime,” Gumede told Reuters.
Gumede said Mbeki, seen as aloof and lacking Zuma’s common touch, had failed to win open support on the Zuma matter from weighty political associates, such as respected Finance Minister Trevor Manuel.
“He feels he is in a corner now. None of the ANC’s big wigs are behind him. This is his crisis now,” Gumede said.
But other political analysts said Zuma may in fact be overestimating the support behind him. While those supporting the deputy president naturally tended to go public, many who think he is a liability preferred to keep quiet — just in case he survives the crisis.
“I think that is a realistic judgment call in politics,” said Keith Gottschalk, political science lecturer at the University of the Western Cape, adding that Mbeki himself may also be waiting for the right moment.
“It has often been Mbeki’s tactics or strategy to circle around his target rather than openly confront it,” he said.
Gumede said Mbeki had to act quickly, pointing to the fact that for the first time groups in the ANC’s ruling alliance such as labour federation COSATU were threatening Mbeki.
Mbeki received a wakeup call over the weekend one of his key provincial allies, Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool, was voted out as local ANC chairman by a pro-Zuma group. That scenario is likely to be repeated in Mpumalanga Province.
