TOKYO: A move by North Korea to test a nuclear bomb would prompt its Asian neighbours to seriously debate arming themselves with nuclear weapons, experts say. But Japan’s experience as the only nation ever to suffer a nuclear attack could make it difficult for policy-makers in Tokyo to actually take that step.
Pyongyang declared in February that it had some atomic weapons and has hinted it may be on the verge of conducting a weapons test. Last week, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan told ABC news that his country had enough atomic bombs to defend itself against a US attack and was making more.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan — key players in Northeast Asia along with nuclear power China — could consider joining the club of nuclear powers if North Korea conducted a test.
“If North Korea did carry out a nuclear test, South Korea and Japan could start debating seriously whether to arm themselves with nuclear weapons,” said Yasuhiko Yoshida, a professor at Osaka University of Economics and Law.
“It’s possible that a North Korean nuclear test could trigger a chain reaction. If Japan and South Korea decided to become nuclear powers, Taiwan could also want to take a similar path,” added Yoshida, a former official at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Some experts believe Japan could produce a nuclear bomb in a matter of months, but that it would take a couple of years to build a nuclear weapons system.
“Japan has lots of plutonium, the technology to enrich uranium, and missile or rocket technology, so Japan has enough technology to produce nuclear arms,” said Toshihiro Inoue, deputy head of the Japan Congress Against A- and H-Bombs, a major anti-nuclear group.
Some experts and activists say, however, that it would not be easy for Japan and other Asian countries to take the step, given likely opposition from their own citizens, neighbouring countries and the United States.
“Hawkish politicians and people in Japan want to take advantage of the North Korean nuclear threat to try to demonstrate the need for nuclear weapons,” said Haruo Fujii, an independent defence analyst.
“But it would be difficult for the government to press ahead to go nuclear because most Japanese citizens would certainly stand against such a move,” he added.
A Japanese taboo on debating the topic has been broken in recent years, but resistance to becoming a nuclear power remains.
A 1971 parliamentary resolution bans Japan from possessing nuclear weapons and successive Japanese governments have repeatedly vowed to stick to that principle.
Host to nearly 50,000 US military personnel, Japan instead relies on America’s “nuclear umbrella” for a deterrent.
North Korea’s nuclear policy risks drastically altering the security landscape in Northeast Asia, ushering in an era of regional instability and conflict, analysts said.
“If North Korea takes an adventurous nuclear policy, the military balance in Northeast Asia would be in deep disarray and fall into grave instability,” Fujii said.
Some analysts doubt if Pyongyang is willing to run the risk that conducting a nuclear test would entail.
“The question is, will North Korea benefit from a nuclear test?” Yoshida said.
“If North Korea actually did it, then the United States could launch pinpoint attacks on the North, so North Korea is faced with that risk.”—Reuters
