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DAWN - the Internet Edition


June 7, 2005 Tuesday Rabi-us-Sani 29, 1426

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Opinion


Kashmir trap: a way out
Growing menace of sectarianism
Erdogan’s crucial visit
Unnamed sources
Deep Throat speaks
What’s the truth about 1965 war?



Kashmir trap: a way out


By Shahid Javed Burki

IN spite of the efforts made by India and Pakistan to improve their relations following the pledge made in April 2003 by Atal Behari Vajpayee, the then Indian prime minister, to bring lasting peace to South Asia by extending a “hand of friendship” to Pakistan, not much progress has been made in resolving the issue. Several high-level meetings and one more summit have been held since then but the two South Asian countries have failed to define the scope and depth of a new relationship.

In these discussions, as on many previous occasions, India and Pakistan have taken two very different positions in attempting to resolve their differences. The Indians want to focus on improving contacts between the two countries. They want to see an easy movement of people across the borders, not just across the established boundaries but also across the Line of Control that divides the two parts of Kashmir. New Delhi would also like to see more cultural exchanges and has offered to take Pakistani students and Pakistani patients into their admittedly better universities and hospitals.

The Pakistan government has adopted a different approach. It is fearful that these efforts are meant to deflect attention from Kashmir in the “composite dialogue” the two countries have initiated and engaged in with not much consequence. Pakistan, more than India, has to deal with the weight of history. In the earlier attempts to bring lasting peace to South Asia — the attempts made in the 1950s and 1960s — Pakistan found that India was not prepared to yield much ground on the Kashmir issue. Its position has not changed in spite of the enormous amount of grief that has been visited upon the region as a result of the Kashmir dispute.

India remains committed to preserving the status quo in Kashmir. Manmohan Singh, the current Indian prime minister, has stated clearly that he does not have the mandate to make adjustments in the country’s boundaries once again on the basis of religion. Pakistan is equally determined to bring about a change in the current status. President Musharraf has talked about dividing the state into seven parts, each representing a distinct ethnic community. “I am not talking about using religion as a basis for settlement but providing autonomy and self-governance to the state’s many ethnic groups. I can identify seven such groups in the state,” he said to me in a conversation in March. These two very different outlooks have resulted in the adoption of different strategies by the two countries to achieve their very different objectives. There was greater consistency on the Indian side. Notwithstanding Article 370 in its constitution, New Delhi has continued with its efforts to make Jammu and Kashmir an integral part of India. That article granted Kashmir a special status within the Indian Union — Kashmir’s own flag, a semi-autonomous executive headed by a prime minister and not a chief minister, and a parliament that could legislate with greater freedom than allowed to state assemblies in other parts of the country. It was the palpable effort by New Delhi to dilute the extent of autonomy granted by the constitution that contributed to the insurgency that began in 1989 and continues to this day.

India has demonstrated that it is prepared to expend large amount of resources, take heavy losses of soldiers and risk its reputation as a peace-loving country to defend its stance. This was done whenever there was a serious challenge to its position in the state. This policy was maintained by governments of different ideological persuasions — by the Congress committed to a secular India and by the Bharatiya Janata Party with interest in moving the country towards a more pronounced Hindu entity. Pakistan, on the other hand, tried a series of different approaches. Four of these are apparent as we go over the history of the dispute.

The first was the path of negotiations. This was attempted by a series of Pakistani leaders, including Liaquat Ali Khan, General Ayub Khan, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and now General Pervez Musharraf. Little came of these attempts for the reason already discussed: the Indian stance against changing the status quo. The second Pakistani approach was to force a military solution. This was attempted twice; in 1948-49 and in 1965, again with not much success.

The third was to involve the United States in putting pressure on New Delhi to relax its posture. The Americans were uneasy about getting involved in the dispute by taking a posture that was not acceptable to India even when the Indians were closer to Moscow than to Washington. There is now even greater reluctance at this time as relations between India and the United States have improved and Washington is prepared to regard India if not quite as yet a global superpower then at least a regional power of considerable significance.

The more recent approach adopted by Washington with respect to India in general and the Kashmir in particular is detailed by Strobe Talbott in his account of his dialogue with India — in particular Jaswant Singh, then India’s foreign minister — following New Delhi’s decision in May 1998 to test five nuclear bombs. One condition that President Bill Clinton placed on his willingness to meet with Nawaz Sharif to diffuse the tension created by the “Kargil incident” was that he would not get directly involved in the Kashmir dispute. Sharif accepted the American position. It is unlikely that Washington would be prepared to change that stance.

The fourth Pakistani approach was to get Islamic “freedom fighters” involved in the dispute. The first attempt to do this was in 1965 when as a part of what was called “Operation Gibraltar” Pakistan infiltrated mujahideen into Kashmir. Some of them were regular Pakistani soldiers who cast off their uniforms before crossing what was then called the Ceasefire Line. This operation led to a full-scale war between the two countries. That operation failed since the citizens of Kashmir were not prepared to rise against the Indian control.

The more recent insurgency in Kashmir has the support of a large segment of the population of the part of the state controlled by India. The jihadi groups, many of whom are the veterans of the war against the Soviet Union’s occupation of Afghanistan and some of whom have been supported by Pakistan, have added a religious dimension to the problem. This has complicated the situation not just in Kashmir but also, by providing these groups a raison d’etre for their activities, for Pakistan. If President Musharraf wishes to challenge these groups as a part of his programme to modernize Pakistan, he will have to rethink his Kashmir strategy.

In his December 30 address to the nation to explain his decision not to retire from the army but to continue to be the head of the armed forces, President Musharraf spent a fair amount of time on the Kashmir dispute. He asked the Indians to show flexibility in the way they should approach the problem, implying that Pakistan had already done that by its willingness not to insist on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions that had asked for ascertaining the wishes of the people of Kashmir. What kind of flexibility is the president seeking in light of the well known Indian position that they will not partition Kashmir along religious lines and not change the current boundaries of the state in favour of Pakistan?

At an earlier time, President Musharraf had suggested that in the dialogue between the two countries the two sides should clearly indicate the lines they would not cross. For the Indians this presumably means changing the borders and for Pakistan giving up its claim on Kashmir. Once these lines are drawn, the two sides should attempt to negotiate for the areas that are left between them.

This is a highly pragmatic approach that could lead to the resolution of the problem over the long-term. Pakistan needs to change the timeframe within which it is seeking to find a solution. As already indicated, none of the four approaches it has tried in the past have worked in its favour. The fifth approach would be the outcome of the recognition that Pakistan is now considerably weaker economically as well as militarily to force a solution on India over the short-term. It has already paid a heavy price for keeping the Kashmir issue alive as a dispute about the status of the state. This price was paid in terms of both the cost to the economy and creating an opportunity for radical and militant Islam to assert itself in the country. It would be wrong — perhaps suicidal — to maintain that posture.

At the same time, India has to recognize that this time around the insurgency in the state is based on deep-rooted resentment of the way the Kashmiris feel they have been treated by New Delhi. In this context, it would be useful to quote at length from a book by Tavleen Singh, a well regarded Indian journalist.

“India has compelling reasons for wanting to keep Kashmir Indian. Unfortunately no one seems to know any more how this could be done. In the absence of any other ideas, the only one that Delhi seems to come up with is a military solution. Delhi continues to believe that Kashmir can be taught to recognize that you cannot take on the might of the Indian state and win.

“Most Indians appear to share this view. And most Indians believe that the reason why Kashmiris have been able to get away with their defiance is only because India is a ‘soft state’. Since the press, by and large, cooperates with the government in not telling the truth about what is going on in the Valley, the ‘soft state’ image persists. ...Nine out of ten articles in the Indian press propagate this view. They rarely speak of the very unsoft side of the Indian state that Kashmiris usually get to see.”

India’s unsoft approach in Kashmir and Pakistan’s inability to force a change means that a new approach needs to be found to move the state towards eventual settlement. One possible way of dealing with this seemingly intractable problem is to move along three fronts simultaneously. One, to get India to grant autonomy to the state well beyond that promised in Article 370 of its constitution. Two, India and Pakistan should allow free movement of people, goods and commodities between the part of Kashmir India occupies and Pakistan.

The most appropriate way of achieving this would be in the context of the South Asia Free Trade Area that is expected to be launched on January 1, 2006. Three, India and Pakistan should become partners along with the community of international and bilateral donors and launch a massive programme of economic development and reconstruction on both sides of the border.

In the coming weeks I will elaborate on the cost Pakistan has already incurred in keeping the dispute alive and what kind of sub-regional arrangement it should seek within the context of Safta to bring economic relief to the citizens of Kashmir.

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Growing menace of sectarianism


By Mahdi Masud

SECTARIANISM is the fascism of our country. Traditions are exploited for creating antagonisms and cleavages in the name of religious solidarity. The way the sectarian monster has raised its head threatens peace and stability of the country.

That the sectarian poison has been allowed to percolate freely since the early ‘80s denotes the perversity of the obscurantists. At this stage nothing short of drastic action would have any effect.

Among the many threats facing the country, none is more damaging to Pakistan’s stability, security, development, image and integrity than the spectre of sectarian terrorism. All claims to moderation and enlightenment, all hopes of attracting local and foreign investment, all efforts for internal development and external credibility, will prove elusive unless and until this menace is tackled as a top priority. This certainly has not been done so far.

Coinciding as the latest outrages at Bari Imam and in Karachi did, with high level visits to Pakistan from India and elsewhere, and occurring as they did on the eve of the prime minister’s and president’s important visits abroad, these attacks pulled the rug from under our diplomatic feet in the context of the government’s efforts to strengthen ties and promote our image and standing abroad.

On more than one occasion in the past, this writer had pointed out that unless the sectarian terrorists were brought to book and deterrent punishment awarded, the menace would develop into communal riots which would damage national unity beyond repair. This has now started happening with serious implications for the country’s peace and stability. The outburst at the recent attack at Madinat-ul-Ilm has also led to the tragic loss of lives of six KFC employees when the fast food outlet was put to the torch.

What is most disheartening is the absence of any deterrent punishment to the sectarian terrorists. It would be an object lesson were an independent body to ascertain and disclose the manifestly insignificant number of those who have been apprehended, convicted (and sentences carried out) in the wake of the thousands of sectarian murders committed. One hoped that the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan or any other organization concerned would take on this responsibility.

Since the large-scale unprovoked killings at the Hyderi mosque and the Imambargah Ali Raza in Karachi last year, one got used to the intermittent reports about the repeated postponement of court proceedings. No wonder that this delay has encouraged potential killers to have little fear of arrest or conviction.

Anyone with a grain of common sense knows well that religion teaches nothing, nothing at all, if it does not spread the message of respecting the other’s convictions. Avoiding any injury to the feelings of others is the only civilized way of co- existing in a multi-denominational

society.

Regrettably, intolerance pervades all fields of our life; ethnic, religious and political. In the religious sphere, there is intolerance towards the beliefs that fall outside the pale of our religion; intolerance towards other sects and refusal to accommodate even those in our own sect who do not wholly subscribe to our way of thinking.

It is quite amazing how people, including those with formal education, seem to overlook the apparent accident of birth; the fact that none of us had control over the language, domicile or creed to which we are born. The possibility that each one of us could have been born and bred in a totally different milieu does not seem to make any difference.

The bedrock of faith for Muslims in our country is the belief in Almighty Allah and the Holy Prophet (PBHU). Respect for positive traditions and cultural and religious heritage is a key element of all living civilizations. But should we not combine this respect for our heritage with an understanding of and accommodation towards heritage of others born in a different setting? The targets of extremist attacks have been diverse and have included state institutions and certain foreign interests.

The mainstream political parties must close their ranks for confronting the perpetrators of terrorism. Unfortunately, they have shown neither the courage nor the will to court the risks and challenges involved in facing up to the monster of obscurantism and terrorism. The religio-political parties, which have greater influence in society, have never conducted a sustained campaign to confront the sectarian monster.

The English language print media has often played a constructive role in bringing to public notice the serious implications of the continuing terrorism. But the vernacular press, which has a far wider reach, can play a much greater role in educating the public about the dangers that hate propaganda poses to society and the state.

One hopes that the HRCP will make efforts to raise awareness about the need for combating sectarian terrorism. As it is, there is an absence, at present, of any visible sense of outrage by concerned citizens at the scourge of sectarian terrorism.

Eminent, respected Pakistanis from different walks of life may consider getting together for joint declarations which lay stress on close links of respect, affection and fellow-feeling among members of different sects. Programmes on television and radio by leaders of all sects and articles in the print media should highlight the negative effects of sectarianism on national interests. The intelligentsia should itself guard against any such prejudices.

Those among us who have not felt the pain and anguish of near and dear ones being killed on either side would do well to recall the memorable words of the Holy Prophet. In reply to a question as to when justice would be established on earth, he said, “Not until he, who sees injustice done to another, feels it as much as if the injustice was done to him.”

The writer is a former ambassador.

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Erdogan’s crucial visit


By David Ignatius

FOR a Bush administration that sometimes talks as if democratization in the Muslim world will be all sweetness and light, Turkey provides a reality check. Here, democratic reforms have opened a once-tranquil Turkish-American relationship to a noisy and occasionally nasty public debate.

Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, arrives in Washington this week for a meeting with President Bush. For both sides, it will be a chance to repair some of the damage of the past several years, during which time disagreements over Iraq have badly frayed the once solid Turkish-American relationship.

Both sides seem eager to restore a strategic partnership. Erdogan wants to reassure Bush that Turkey is on a steady course toward reform, according to one of his advisers. The administration wants to reaffirm support for Turkey, but it also wants to hear how Erdogan plans to combat the recent eruptions of anti-Americanism, says a senior US official.

“It could be a make-or-break kind of visit,” argues Soli Ozel, a professor at Istanbul Bilgi University. To put the partnership back together, he says, “Both sides need to be honest about expressing their interests — where they clash and where they coincide.”

The Erdogan government, in theory, is a model of what the United States would like to see more of in the Muslim world. His party is committed to free-market reforms and democratic freedoms. It’s also a quasi-religious party with deep roots among Turkey’s Muslim population. In that sense, it promises the possibility of modern, tolerant Islamic politics in a state that remains officially secular.

Bush lauded Erdogan as a religious-minded reformer when the two first met in late 2002. He welcomed the Turkish politician, saying: “You and I both believe in the Almighty, and we’re not ashamed to admit it. I think we’re going to get along,” according to a Turkish official who was present.

Then came the Iraq war, which many Turks opposed. Washington was furious that the Turkish parliament refused to allow American troops to invade from Turkey. Ankara was upset by the chaotic vacuum that followed Saddam Hussein’s ouster, and by the US failure to control fighters from the extremist Kurdish PKK party. Anti-American diatribes began to fill the Turkish press, and by last fall’s US offensive in Fallujah, a prominent member of Erdogan’s party was quoted as accusing the United States of “genocide.”

Turkey’s once-close relations with Israel have also deteriorated under the Erdogan government. And according to Silvyo Ovadya, president of the Jewish community in Turkey, there has been a rise in anti-Semitism in Turkey the past several years, with “Mein Kampf” and other anti-Semitic books becoming bestsellers. He says the government has taken some steps to curb this trend among Muslim extremists, but he wishes Erdogan would do more.

Once upon a time, these problems would have been almost unthinkable. Turkey was Israel’s best friend in the Muslim world and a crucial Nato ally throughout the Cold War. “For many years, this relationship was a kind of relationship between elites — security elites,” US Ambassador Eric Edelman explained in a recent interview with the Turkish newspaper Radikal. Now, with a more democratic Turkey, “you have to deal not just with elites but also with a broader dimension of public opinion.” And that public debate is sometimes animated by a sharp anti-Americanism.

After Turkish military and business leaders began complaining early this year that the anti-Americanism was veering out of control, Erdogan altered course. He approved new rights for US military aircraft at Incirlik air base in southeastern Turkey, he affirmed the importance of good relations with America in a speech to his party, and he travelled to Israel.

What should reassure Washington is Turkey’s mature reaction to the votes in France and the Netherlands rejecting the proposed European Union constitution, despite widespread commentary that they reflected, in part, voters’ hostility toward eventual Turkish entry into the EU. Ali Babacan, Turkey’s lead EU negotiator, says accession talks will begin October 3, as scheduled. “We should be patient and work very hard,” he says. “Every year that goes by will bring Turkey’s standards one step forward.” He suggests that even if Europe rejects his country, Turkey will be better off for making the reforms the European Union is demanding.

A democratic Turkey may be noisier, and its public debate may give the United States occasional heartburn. But if it stays on course toward joining Europe, it should also be a freer, more stable and more prosperous place. And that, argues Egemen Bagis, a top adviser to the prime minister, “is the antidote to the biggest fear we all have — the clash of civilizations.”—Dawn/ Washington Post Service

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Unnamed sources


AFTER the Newsweek debacle, this column’s policy will be to no longer quote “unnamed sources.” Unlike other columnists, I have rarely quoted “high officials” in Washington, but rather “low officials” that no one else talks to.

For example, I have quoted an anonymous whistleblower in a stem cell laboratory to protect his identity. Now I must use his name. It is Professor Heinrich Applebaum. Even if he loses his job because of it, it is the right thing to do.

Recently I wrote about a valet parker in front of the Pentagon. He parks the cars of generals, admirals, and civilians in charge of investigating them.

His name is Peter Parker and he leaked to me that Donald Rumsfeld takes his own lunch to work and has a trash can under his desk, so he won’t have to throw litter out the window.

By law I am not supposed to reveal the names of anyone who works for the CIA. But all that changed after Robert Novak named an undercover agent in his column.

Because of this, all of us are mentioning undercover agents with names like “Freddy Spyglass,” “Charley Witherspoon” and “Lady Godiva,” though you can never be sure if it is their real name. The reason I will print their names is that if I don’t, I will go to jail.

The intelligence organizations are fair game because they don’t want to admit whether the facts in a column are true or not. They don’t even want to admit that a source really exists, because it could hurt their cover.

In the past, I have referred to a White House spokesman as a “high-level administration spinner.” But no more. I will now quote Press Secretary Scott McClellan by name, even if I get the last seat in the back of the pressroom and he never calls on me.

It will be hard to eliminate “unnamed sources” from my columns. The reason is if you quote one, you can put words in his mouth, and, like “Deep Throat,” he can’t deny it without revealing who he is.

I have quoted “anonymous sources” for a long time, and no one has ever questioned them, but now I cannot quote them unless it is vital to my story.

Of course it always makes a better column if I pretend I have a solid source, but in truth I don’t have any at all.

Since there is always damage control at the State Department, there is always someone protecting his butt. I must now reveal who that person is when I tell his side of the story.

Yesterday an Iraqi oil-for-food programme official leaked a story to me about how Saddam made a fortune selling peanut butter on the black market. Ordinarily I would have kept his name out of the story, but playing by the new rules I had to reveal his name. It is Ali Zakari Ramzi Moussabi, Jr.

There are times when I have no choice but to use the expression “confidential sources” without revealing who they are. In that case, I must tell 12 editors and the publisher who my sources are before I can print it.I believe the new policy will make me a better person. —Dawn/Tribune Media Services

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Deep Throat speaks


FOR more than three decades Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein and former executive editor Benjamin C. Bradlee preserved an extraordinary secret: the identity of the source known as Deep Throat, who helped inform the stories The Post published in 1972 and 1973 exposing what became known as the Watergate scandal.

They kept the secret despite extraordinary pressure from the White House, including charges that Deep Throat was an invention; through the hearings and impeachment proceedings that led to President Richard M. Nixon’s resignation in August 1974; and despite endless speculation about the source’s identity in the years afterward.

Mr Woodward, now a Post editor, and Mr Bernstein, who no longer works there, said that they had made a commitment not to reveal Deep Throat’s identity until after his death. Now that pact has been finally superseded by the publication of statements by W. Mark Felt, former deputy director of the FBI, confirming that he was Deep Throat. He revealed his role in part because of his family’s belief that he deserves to be honoured for his actions while he is alive.

The honour is surely deserved. Mr Felt, now 91, was a dedicated servant of the FBI, and no softie: He was convicted of (and later pardoned for) authorizing illegal acts in pursuit of leftist radicals in the early 1970s.

Yet he was also outraged that the Nixon White House brazenly interfered with the FBI’s investigation of the burglary of Democratic Party headquarters.

— The Washington Post

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What’s the truth about 1965 war?


NEVER underestimate the magnetic power of a sideshow. As the crosscurrents of history sweep through the larger stage, the Hurriyat does what was unthinkable day before yesterday and unacceptable yesterday.

While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Pervez Musharraf lift the spirit of their language far above the stodgy bureaucratic wrangling that must inevitably inform discussions on detail; while the leader of the Indian opposition and an architect of the Ram Mandir movement, Lal Krishna Advani, apologizes for the destruction of the Babri mosque during a visit to Pakistan; Gohar Ayub Khan, son of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, pinches some of the headlines with the titillating claim that an Indian brigadier sold Indias 1965 war plans.

Who is this top spy? Mr Khan refuses to reveal the identity but strews the path with teasing hints. The spy is still alive. His wife needed the money for a hobby, canning fruits. The payment was made in London, through the Pakistan’s military attache there, Brigadier Said Ghaus. The plan was so comprehensive that for a while Ayub Khan even suspected it to be a plant and had it double-checked by other intelligence assets in Delhi. The plan envisaged the Indian army falling back behind the Beas in case of reverses.

In later interviews Gohar Khan, never without a Frontier twinkle in his eye, said that the brigadier was director of military operations between 1951 and 1958. I saw one Indian television news interview in which Mr Khan blithely claimed that everything relevant on the table of the Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru eventually reached his father, Ayub Khan.

As an Indian I was terribly reassured by this last statement, since Nehru was not prime minister of India during the 1965 war: Lal Bahadur Shastri had been prime minister for some 16 months when Ayub Khan launched Operation Gibraltar in the autumn of 1965, and sank this subcontinent into an era of economic stagnation and human despair from which we are at long last making a serious effort to recover. Alas, the television interviewer did not mention this to Mr Gohar Khan. It might have clouded at least some of those twinkles. It is possible, however, that the TV interviewer himself did not know this. Presumably the papers on Shastri’s table were safe.

My problem with the story is not that Gohar Khan made these claims, but the effortlessness with which journalists swallowed them. Even a cursory check with common sense induces cynicism. If the Great Indian Spy (henceforth to be codenamed Gus, a variation of GIS) was brigadier in 1951, he must be in his nineties now, and Rs 20,000 in the fifties must have bought a lot of cans for fruit. But these are negligible objections.

Field Marshal Ayub Khan was a Sandhurst graduate and saw action in the Second World War. People have called him many names, from hero to villain, but no one as yet has called him a fool. While every army has standard operational plans against any neighbour deemed to be hostile, or even deemed to be friendly, to call something written in the fifties the war plan for 1965, is about as absurd as it gets.

It is even more stupid to believe that there can be anything like a comprehensive plan, for the simple reason that no one knows where the enemy will concentrate its strike, unless of course some Gus has told you. The alleged plan on Ayub Khan’s desk could not have been of much use because India had no intention of starting a war in 1965. (This is in contrast to 1971, when India had every intention of starting a war, and a Gus in 1971 would have been extremely useful to President Yahya Khan. But like Shastri’s desk, Indira Gandhi’s desk was also clearly beyond the reach of any Gus.)

I know it is currently unfashionable to be aware of history, particularly the history of your own country, but there was a pretty startling episode in the history of the Indian army between the ‘50s and 1965. This was the war against China in 1962 in which the Indian army was humiliated and India humbled. The catastrophe of 1962 came near to taking Nehru’s job; his defence minister Krishna Menon did have to pay a heavy price.

The army command inevitably was churned up. Once again, would any general in Pakistan with the minimum IQ have believed that a document of the ’50s would have survived the rethinking and revaluation that took place after 1962? General Ayub Khan was not such a dud as to base operational plans for 1965 on intelligence purchased in the ’50s, if indeed there was any such brigadier who sold any such plan. For starters, the Indian army of 1965 was a very different force from the army of the fifties and indeed of 1962.

Here is a key question for Gohar Khan. If the brigadier had given Ayub Khan the full Indian plan for the 1965 war, how come Pakistan was surprised by the Indian thrust across the international border, and shocked by the fact that Indian troops reached the Ichogil Canal? A war plan that did not include what happened was not much of a plan, was it?

There were three surprises in the 1965 war. Perhaps, in hindsight, neither side should have been surprised, but neither country had enough foresight. The first surprise was Operation Gibraltar, in which the 7,000-strong Gibraltar Force began to slip across the Ceasefire Line in twos and threes from the morning of August 7, 1965, with the objective of sabotage, disruption, distribution of arms and the creation of conditions for a mass, armed uprising in the Kashmir valley.

The objective conditions seemed right for such a move. The Indian army was still reeling from the shock of 1962. The valley was in turmoil, particularly after the disappearance of the Mo-e-Muqaddas, the hair of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) from the Hazratbal shrine in the last week of December 1963. Its recovery, and, more important, acceptance that the recovery was genuine, calmed matters for a while but convinced Nehru that Sheikh Abdullah’s long imprisonment was a costly mistake.

The Sheikh was released in April, and in May — after consultations with Acharya Vinoba Bhave, Jaya Prakash Narayan and C. Rajagopalachari — was introduced the novel idea of a confederation of India, Pakistan and Kashmir. On May 23, 1964, the Sheikh went to Pakistan to sell his three-nation theory, but Ayub Khan was in no mood to purchase uncertain goods. On May 26 however the Sheikh did announce that there would be a Nehru-Ayub summit.

On May 27, 1964, Nehru died, and the Congress began to backtrack, leaving the Sheikh furious. On January 15, 1965, the Sheikh said in a public speech that the peaceful agitation might not remain peaceful forever. He went on a Haj trip with political ramifications, meeting Zhou Enlai (the visit was arranged by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto), and returned to India in May to find rearrest awaiting him.

By this time, Pakistan had tested Indian arms, with success, when fighting broke out in the Rann of Kutch on April 9, and there were hopes of greater success when Gibraltar was launched. Instead, the Kashmiris, for the most part, supported the Indian response, which included moving to block the passes through which the Gibraltar force had come.

But if Gibraltar failed, the second Pakistan punch, Operation Grand Slam, commanded by Major-General Akhtar Hussain Malik, launched on September 1, was a stunning success. The bridge across Chenab lay in front of 7 Division and Jammu was at its mercy, with the possibility that the Indian army in the valley would be surrounded and cut off.

At this point something totally inexplicable happened. Malik, the hero of the hour, was shifted to Kargil and Major-General Yahya Khan was told to take command in mid-battle. While Pakistani soldiers were waiting for the code word to move forward, headquarters was playing favourites. (The memoirs of General Mohammad Musa are illuminating.) The stalled Pak offensive reached Jaurian only on September 5, and despite orders to take Akhnur as quickly as possible, Yahya Khan dallied. He gave India the only thing it needed, time.

On September 6 India opened a front from Sialkot to Kasur, and it became a different story. This was the second surprise. It was Pakistan’s turn to be outflanked. It is true that India’s Army chief General Chaudhury had contemplated, during those days in which the situation seemed hopeless, that India consolidate behind the Beas, but his colleagues would not consider what would have been an abject surrender of Punjab. Punjab meant something to Sikhs like General Harbaksh Singh. Rather than retreating from Amritsar, they took the war into Lahore.

Gohar Khan exaggerates the role of one driver and his accident, which he says, prevented Pak armour from breaking through on the Punjab front. More sensible accounts talk of the lugubrious nature of tank movement.

Suffice it to say that Indian generals found a brilliant tactic: they stalled the heavy Patton tanks (heroes of the second world war) by flooding the monsoon-moist fields of Punjab, and then poured withering fire on the trapped elephants in a decisive battle known in India as “Asal Uttar” (the Real Answer). This was the third surprise.

No plan can ever contemplate such realities.

The writer is editor-in-chief of Asian Age, New Delhi

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