‘No’ verdict could undermine French influence in EU
By Paul Carrel
PARIS: A new opinion poll on Thursday put France firmly on course to reject the European Union’s new constitution, increasing pressure on President Jacques Chirac before his final plea to voters to back the charter.
A French rejection of the constitution could kill the charter, undermining France’s role in the 25-member bloc and causing a crisis of confidence in the EU that delays integration of new member states and raises jitters on financial markets.
The new survey by the TNS Sofres-Unilog polling group put opposition to the charter at 54 percent of people who had decided how to vote, a one percentage point increase from the group’s previous poll almost two weeks earlier.
Some 20 per cent of those questioned in the poll did not give a view — a pool of undecided voters which the “Yes” and “No” camps are trying to sway.
The founding father of the constitution — which sets new rules to make the EU run more smoothly following its enlargement last year — said he believed France would approve the treaty because a majority of undecided voters would support it.
“The people who are undecided are more inclined towards the ‘Yes’,” former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing, who led a Convention of lawmakers and national representatives who drafted the charter, told Reuters in an interview.
“The undecided voters are people who do not like to express their views because they feel isolated in their economic or social milieu. The ones hesitating are probably people who just have not said until now that in fact they want to vote ‘Yes’.”
A leading opponent of the treaty, former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, urged voters to turn out in force.
“It’s not the opinion polls that count. It’s the vote,” Fabius told France Info radio. “I call for a massive turnout so that there is a meaningful result.”
DUTCH HURDLE AHEAD: Eleven successive polls have put the “No” camp ahead in France. Surveys show rejectionists also clearly ahead in the Netherlands, which votes on the treaty on June 1. The treaty must be adopted by all EU member states to take effect.
Dutch politicians have proposed holding a second vote if the Netherlands rejects the treaty, but their French counterparts have has ruled that out.
Underlining markets’ sensitivity to the referendum, the euro rose slightly against the dollar after a spokesman for Nicolas Sarkozy denied newspaper reports that the leader of France’s ruling conservative party had said the vote was already lost.
Mr Chirac has said he will not quit if voters reject the text. Political analysts say he is also unlikely to follow the example set by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and call an early election if France rejects the constitution.
Schroeder put his job on the line by making a surprise call for new federal elections, one year ahead of schedule, after his Social Democrats lost a regional poll on Sunday. Treaty opponents, driven by concerns ranging from criticism of EU economic policies as too liberal to fears about Turkey’s EU membership bid, say a rejection would bring positive changes.
Mr Chirac and EU leaders say there is no “Plan B” if the treaty is rejected — an outcome that would leave the EU to operate on the current rules agreed in 2000, which were designed for a smaller bloc and are now widely considered inadequate. —Reuters
