VIENNA: Amid Iranian threats to break off negotiations and European warnings about “irreversible gestures” on Tehran’s part, the stakes are high as the two sides prepare to meet over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions. The outcome of the meeting, scheduled for midweek in Geneva, is crucial not just because of what it could portend for Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capability. If Iran leaves the negotiating table, the move could raise tensions throughout the Middle East and set the stage for a standoff between Tehran and the United States.

“The immediate concern is that if Iran carries out its threat, the US will bomb them, and people in the region have had enough of wars between the United States and Muslim countries,” said Gary Samore, a former adviser to the National Security Council and now director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The last-ditch effort to persuade Iran to continue its suspension of nuclear activities will be the first face-to-face contact since Iran threatened earlier this month to break off talks with Britain, France and Germany. Under the agreement reached in November, which is voluntary, Iran suspended all work on nuclear processing including uranium enrichment, which can lead to the production of nuclear arms, in exchange for economic, technological and political incentives from Europe.

French diplomats plan to send a message at the Geneva meeting that an Iranian move to restart activity related to uranium enrichment would scuttle the talks and could result in a response by the UN Security Council, a French diplomatic official said. “We will tell them that committing an irreversible gesture makes no sense. It is not in their interest politically, technically or economically. It will put them in the position of being an isolated country. That’s not good for their security,” said the official, who declined to be identified. The political calculus and diplomatic manoeuvring of the Europeans and the Iranians is exceedingly knotted, but the question that could be answered at the Geneva meeting is whether Iran will continue its moratorium on processing nuclear material and stay at the bargaining table — at least for the time being. Many experts believe that Iran will eventually restart its nuclear programme, but delaying that day and putting in place strong verification measures to ensure the country is not making a bomb would be a reasonable outcome.

In an interview this week in Tehran, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator said that the question was not whether the Iranians would resume nuclear work, but when. Iran says its nuclear efforts are for civilian purposes only. “My country has a long-term plan to generate 20,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity,” the negotiator, Hassan Rohani, said. “We cannot wait longer to implement our plans. . . . We believe that what is needed is to see a decision made by the Europeans over how to carry out (their commitments).”

He added: “The decision has been made in my country to resume activities at the (country’s) Isfahan facility. The time of resumption is in my hands.” The meeting comes after a week of charges and warnings about Iran’s ambitions. On Friday, a prominent Iranian exile claimed that Iran was smuggling a highly sensitive material that could be used to encase a nuclear warhead atop a missile. The exile, Alireza Jafarzadeh, said a source within the government provided evidence to him that Tehran’s Defence Ministry “has in the past and continues to smuggle” the material into the country. A day earlier, a senior US State Department official and international experts told a Senate panel they saw no signs that current disarmament efforts would deter the country’s rulers from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Two years ago, when the extent of its nuclear programme was first revealed, the United States had threatened to try to take Iran to the Security Council. At that time, however, there was little consensus among other countries to do so. Subsequently, US officials shifted their tactics and now are working behind the scenes with the Europeans — with whom they are in daily contact, although the Americans are not part of the official negotiations.

The United States has continued to take a tough line and insisted that that Iran give up all its nuclear activities — even those that could be used for the generation of electricity and other peaceful purposes, because even those create products that ultimately can be used in the uranium enrichment process and make weapons. Iran must “negotiate in good faith the eventual cessation and dismantling of all sensitive nuclear fuel cycle activities,” US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told the Senate committee. Diplomats involved in the negotiations say it is unclear whether the Iranians will follow through with their threat to leave the negotiations. “We have already been in a difficult context, on the verge of a breakdown,” said a French official, who declined to be identified. “And the sole fact that we kept talking enabled the re-establishment of negotiations. This is not the first time.” Going into the Geneva meeting, the Europeans are relying primarily on the threat of referring Iran to the Security Council to bring the country back to the bargaining table. However, they are also looking for a way “to sugarcoat it,” said a Western official close to the negotiations who declined to be identified.

Up to now, Iran has worked hard to avoid a Security Council referral. Since its nuclear programme was uncovered, it has complied with requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear verification agency, for information about the programme. Iran, however, is interested in more than sugarcoating. It has expressed dissatisfaction with the offers made so far by the Europeans, which include used airplane parts from the US and an opening for the country to apply for World Trade Organization membership. In comments last week, Iranian officials expressed an interest in having the Europeans deliver 10 nuclear reactors — for energy-generation purposes. It seems highly unlikely that such a deal could be struck anytime soon.

European diplomats warned Iran about pushing them too far. “If the Iranians write a letter saying they plan to restart conversion, they set off a political process over which they may not be able to exert control . . . they may think they can, but that is not at all clear,” a diplomat said. —Dawn/LAT-WP News Service