BEIRUT: Lebanese Premier Najib Mikati’s government won an overwhelming vote of confidence recently after two days of debate, and immediately scheduled the legislative elections to begin on May 29 and continue over the following three Sundays. The rapid developments followed the US administration’s warning recently against delaying Lebanon’s election beyond the constitutional timeframe of May 31, saying Speaker Nabih Berri’s bid for a one-month postponement could force Lebanon down a “dangerous path leading to a constitutional crisis”.
The current transitional phase is marked by the unclear stands of the various political parties. The compromise between loyalists and the opposition over the election law to avoid the postponement of the polls was not unanimous and has been opposed by some parties. The compromise saw in effect the adoption of the 2000 electoral law, leading to a political reality that some parties consider temporary.
Some observers saw in the deal an alliance based on sectarian considerations as the political forces that reached the settlement were Chouf MP Walid Jumblat’s parliamentary bloc (Druze) Amal and Hezbollah, (Shias) the Beirut Decision bloc and the Future Movement (Sunnis).
But in fact, some of the Christian Qornet Shehwan Gathering’s leaders were not totally against the settlement, although they preferred to go along with other Muslim opposition members — an electoral law based on small districts.
But these groups accepted the 2000 law for fear Speaker Nabih Berri would delay the elections if small district were adopted. Observers believe speculation in the media over such an alliance increased recently after word spread of a dispute over the confession of the Surete General director.
President Lahoud wanted the post to be returned to the Maronites after Major General Jamil Sayyed’s resignation while Hezbollah insisted on a Shia candidate and was supported by Sunni ministers and ministers close to Amal under the pretext that changing the confessional identity of the post required a change in several other top-level posts.
Their opposition is apparently sectarian but its main cause is electoral. This transitional phase will be clear after the elections, when alliances will be forced and cards will be reshuffled between loyalists and opposition.
