CANBERRA: It has been obvious to Canberra watchers for several months that there is one issue on which conservative prime minister John Howard doesn’t see eye to eye with President George W Bush. And that is the US willingness to go to war with China, if need be, to protect the independence of Taiwan.
Canberra’s view is that China will inevitably become capable of equalling or surpassing the United States in economic strength and that a conflict would have disastrous and long term historic consequences for Australia.
Washington DC’s view is China is a clear and emerging threat to the dominant power status of the US, and that it must be contained, by diplomacy, by trade or even by armed conflict.
To that end, the issue most likely to bring China and the US into conflict in any form is what Beijing calls the renegade state of Taiwan, established by Chiang Kai Shek in 1949 following the defeat of his Nationalist Chinese Army by Mao Tse Tung.
The election of Chen Shui bian last year as President of Taiwan was seen by Beijing as an endorsement of his views on separate nationhood and likely to lead to a formal declaration of Taiwanese independence from China.
This caused Beijing to rush through an anti secession law authorizing the invasion of the island should that occur.
Even though a subsequent election deprived Chen of a majority in the Taiwan parliament, the anti secession law significantly raised the risk of a confrontation between China and the US, neither of whom are accustomed to blinking when their authority is challenged.
As the potential flash point became more obvious late last year, the Australian Government began to remind the world that its ANZUS Treaty with the US obliges Washington D.C and Canberra to ‘consult’ rather than start shooting should President Bush pursue a military option in the event that Beijing invaded Taiwan.
The treaty has been the foundation of the Australian alignment with America since the Korean conflict and underpinned the country’s involvement in the Vietnam War, its support for the US campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan and its recently upgraded presence in Iraq as part of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’.
But the messages from Canberra were couched in vague terms, with both the Prime Minister Mr Howard and his foreign affairs minister, Alexander Downer, qualifying their comments by saying they wouldn’t be drawn into detailed discussion about ‘hypothetical’ future events.
That vagueness has been replaced by more precise language in recent days, just before the President of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made a state visit to the Australian capital.
Shortly before President Yudhoyono or SBY as he is widely known, was due in Canberra, Howard delivered a set piece speech to a foreign policy forum claiming the role of ‘an anchor of stability and peace in the region’.
In the speech, simultaneously distributed to key media in the Asia Pacific hemisphere, Howard said: “Australia does not believe there is anything inevitable about escalating strategic competition between China and the US.
“We see ourselves as having a role in continually identifying, and advocating to each, the shared strategic interests these great powers have in regional peace and security.” Howard needs Indonesia’s support for such a role both regionally and in the UN. But the Indonesian President was unexpectedly delayed for several days by the serious earthquake on Nias island near the part of Sumatra already struggling with the aftermath of the Dec 26 tsunami.
During this hold up, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who is making his own visit to Canberra in the middle of this month (APRIL), gave a scathing critique of Howard’s record as President Bush’s ‘deputy sheriff’ in the region.
Prime Minister Bedawi said: “We are inclined to believe that Australia is not really centring on Asia but has more concern with reflecting the views expressed by the United States.”
Prime Minister Bedawi’s stance could signal opposition to inviting Australia to attend an Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Kuala Lumpur, later this year, which Canberra sees as crucial to its credibility as an honest broker between China and the US.
That meeting will work further than ever toward creating a vast free trade area stretching from China to India and possibly Pakistan.
While Canberra sees it as essential for Australia to gain membership of this rapidly evolving grouping, the US commentary on its emergence is largely hostile, and focused on the power the grouping would give to China.
Should Australia succeed in its mission, Canberra observers are wondering how it will patch up the rift it appears to have inspired between Indonesia and Malaysia.—Dawn/The Observer News Service.
