FOR the last about 17 years since the first post Ziaul Haq quasi-democratic system was installed in Pakistan, first Kalabagh Dam (KBD), then Bhasha Dam as well and now water reservoirs in general have been simultaneously striking alarm bells and notes of hope.
The sound of the former is gradually assuming a deafening pitch while the issue of Pakistan’s water needs is entering a dark, frightening and economically disastrous tunnel with the destruction of the country’s agriculture and hunger and starvation descending on the people at the end of the tunnel; famine like conditions can be forecast within the foreseeable future if the issue is left unresolved.
Two facts are or should be regarded as incontrovertible. One Pakistan needs water reservoirs for its very survival and this is as true about Sindh as about Punjab, the country’s two main food producing provinces. And two: no reservoir can be, should be, constructed against the wishes of a majority of the members of the federation.
The main opposition to reservoirs comes from NWFP and Sindh, not that, Balochistan supports such projects but the latter province, without slighting its importance as a federating unit, is not directly impacted in a serious way by dams built in NWFP; its views can hence be taken up after reservations and apprehensions of NWFP and Sindh are satisfied.
Punjab is generally supportive of reservoirs but some view Bhasha dam favourably as compared to KBD and opposition to KBD is politically motivated. The preference for one project over the other certainly does not conform to principles of justice and equity particularly in view of the expert’s opinion that holds KBD as a technically superior and more feasible project.
That Pakistan’s water resources are fast depleting is not a moot point, neither a sudden discovery. Water sector experts have been warning against it for years. The former Chairman of WAPDA, Mr Shamsul Mulk raised the issue as far back as in the early nineties when he was Member, (Water) of WAPDA.
He was supportive of KBD at a time when many water sector engineers opposed it and stuck to his position even though his own village near Nowshera would be drowned if the dam was constructed because he looked at the project from the viewpoint of national needs.
Statistics of waste and depletion of water resources need not be repeated because they have often been brandished. Suffice it say here that the original capacity of 18.37 MAF of the country’s two main reservoirs, Mangla and Tarbela has been substantially reduced over the years.
The water they provided for irrigation besides producing energy, stood at 13.80 MAF at the start of this year because of sedimentation; it would be down to 12.64 MAF by 2110. And this would not be the end of Pakistan’s water woes because sedimentation would continue reducing their capacity.
KBD would replace the reduced water from these reservoirs at best and would not be a permanent bulwark against future shortages that are bound to crop up because the population persists on an explosive streak, the government’s claim to contain growth not withstanding.
Feeding a higher larger number of people would require higher quantity of food. The agriculture fields of Pakistan have the capacity to produce more but that cannot be done without water for irrigating crops. The issue can thus not be ignored, nor indeed postponed. As it is, Pakistan has already delayed its resolution by some years.
The issue has been raised in the present National Assembly more than once. NA was in fact told in March last year that that water resources of Pakistan were fast depleting and the country would soon become water deficient; at the time of independence, Pakistanis were a water affluent nation. General Musharraf had also emphasized early last year that a decision on building water reservoirs must be taken in 2004. But opposition to water projects delayed concrete advance on them.
Recently, the Planning Commission, a body comprising professionals and experts declared that construction of both KBD and Bhasha dam was imperative for meeting the country’s future water, energy and growth requirements. Without new reservoirs, Pakistan would actually be in to a state of irretrievable economic deprivation.
But it cannot be resolved by endangering the unity of the federation. The grievances of the provinces must be removed and their objections resolved before the construction of any reservoir can be undertaken. The President, General Pervez Musharraf has taken it upon himself to persuade the populace to support the building of new water reservoirs.
That is as it should be done: the first citizen of a country must himself lead at such times. But his campaign is undermined by political and constitutional factors. Even if one disregards or ignores controversial aspects of his dual office authority despite its implications for the nation, the fact remains that he is not a populist leader but essentially the top official of Pakistan Army; he has no following of his own as a leader; organized mass attendance at his rallies should not be confused with support among the masses.
The President has been addressing public meetings in Sindh and NWFP to build support for the projects. The latest was a meeting in the latter province where, according to some published reports, the answer from a segment of the people attending the rally was in the negative when he asked them if they favoured construction of these projects. Such campaigns are likely to consolidate opposition to the dams instead of enhances their acceptability among the masses.
We need water reservoirs but consensus is not to be achieved at specially arranged public meetings where attendance is ensured by the administration. Nor can a decision by a government appointed water committee help push antagonists towards transformation. As it is, the committee has been dragging its feet and, according to the latest reports, has failed to reach an accord.
The way out is communicating with (genuine) leaders of public opinion and arranging exchange of views between experts representing professional reasons for supporting or rejecting the idea of new reservoirs. Grievances of provinces have to be inventoried, discussed and satisfied. There can be no hope of obtaining consensus without adopting this process. The current campaign is more likely to further harden positions instead of rallying people to accepting the reality.
