Shias need Kurds' support to clinch top posts: analysts
BAGHDAD, Feb 14: Iraq's main Shia alliance, fresh from winning landmark elections, gathered on Monday to choose a candidate for prime minister and the allies it needs after failing to win an absolute majority.
The alliance, which won 48 per cent of votes cast on Jan 30 - far short of the 60 per cent it expected - will need other parties' support if it is to dominate the National Assembly, where a two-thirds majority is needed to form a government.
Analysts expect the Kurds, who won 25 per cent of the vote, to be kingmakers in negotiations over who will take the top government positions as Iraqis look towards a reduction of the US military presence and eventual withdrawal.
Sunnis, most of whom either boycotted the vote or did not turn out because of violence, look set to get barely five seats in the assembly, leaving Iraq's once dominant group out in the cold.
That could heighten sectarian tensions. There are also fears of a rise in ethnic tensions around the divided city of Kirkuk, where Kurds won around 60 per cent of the local vote after many Arabs and Turkmen, who also lay claim to the oil-rich city, boycotted the election.
In Baghdad, doubts arose over whether the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition backed by Iraq's top Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali al Sistani, would hold together despite its electoral win - an issue on the agenda on Monday.
"It's a critical day for us. After today everything will be resolved," said a member of one of the alliance's main parties. The grouping, which is headed by two religious Shia parties - the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and Dawa - also brings together a medley of independents, secular Shias, some Sunnis and Turkmen.
"All details are being discussed minutely," said another senior member of the alliance. "Today we will agree on the prime minister, the ministers, and all other details, including if the alliance will stay together."
The talks are being held at the office of Abdel Aziz al Hakim, the turbaned leader of SCIRI, who was photographed crying and holding his head in his hands after the results on Sunday showed the alliance failed to win an absolute majority.
While the alliance won slightly less than half the vote, it could end up with around 140 seats in the assembly - two more than a majority - once all those votes that went to candidates who didn't get enough to secure a seat are redistributed.
The Kurds' second place showing means they will get around 70 seats in the assembly. A list headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi came third and will have about 40 seats.
INTENSE DEBATE: Iraq's two main Kurdish parties, which ran together, have agreed that Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, will be their candidate for a senior government position and Mr Talabani has indicated he wants the presidency.
Iraq's new government will have a president and two vice-presidents - all largely ceremonial roles - who must be approved by two-thirds of the assembly. Once they are named, they will choose a prime minister and agree on a cabinet of ministers who must be approved by a majority.
Horse-trading to decide all those positions is already in full swing. If the Kurds do receive the presidency, then the Shias are expected to take the prime minister's post.
The United Iraqi Alliance has several potential candidates, including Ibrahim al Jaafari, the head of Dawa, and Adel Abdul Mahdi, a member of SCIRI who is currently finance minister.
Ahmad Chalabi, the former Pentagon favourite who campaigned to overthrow Saddam Hussein, is also mentioned as a candidate. His rival Allawi, a secular Shia with strong ties to the US administration, is manoeuvring to try to retain his job.
One major fallout from the election is that the government that takes office in the weeks ahead may be weaker, or at least more handicapped by alliances, than was otherwise expected.
Some analysts believe that could mean the government requires buttressing from Washington, and say it could have an impact on any negotiations over any US troop withdrawal. -Reuters
