As President Bush starts his second term, the face of his new administration looks more threatening. Joining the trio of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz are Rice, Gonzales and Goss as the new secretary of state, attorney general and head of CIA respectively - all holding views which would go far beyond President Musharraf's concept of enlightened moderation.
A dangerous streak now runs through the entire American leadership involved in foreign affairs and defence. Emboldened by the comfortable election victory of George W. Bush over Kerry, the policy-makers of the second Bush administration are ready to intensify their war against "terrorism". As reaffirmed by Bush in his inaugural address, the relentless pursuit of the harsh neocon agenda - manipulation, subjugation and elimination of all forces opposed to America - still seems to be the top priority.
In the Middle East, the long-term American goal is to have a strong Israel surrounded by weak and pro-American Arab nations and secure oil supplies for the US. The Iraqi occupation is part of this goal. As confirmed by the former presidential candidate Ralph Nader in his interview to CNN some months ago, the Bush administration has plans to establish permanent American military bases in Iraq. President Bush went on record recently saying that there is no timetable for withdrawal of American forces from Iraq.
The Iraqi experience has now forced Bush policy planners to start promoting the idea of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq which could provide much needed support to the American forces were they to face expulsion from Baghdad by the new government. In a recent article Henry Kissinger and George Shultz have openly called for protecting the American interests in Iraq through the creation of a federal structure with three autonomous regions.
Although America would like former CIA agent Ayad Alawi to remain in charge, the chances of that are slim. The emergence of a strong Shia-dominated government in a unified Iraq does not seem to be in America's interests as indicated by Messrs Kissinger and Shultz.
The American strategy also calls for building an outer circle of American allies around the Middle East. This would involve Turkey, Iran and Pakistan.
While Turkey and Pakistan are already close allies of the US, Iran has become a thorn in its side for America. The Bush regime has now singled out Iran as its number one target and its plans to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile installations have been disclosed recently in the New Yorker magazine by Seymour Hersh.
Dick Cheney has also called Iran as the biggest threat to world peace and raised the possibility of unilateral action by Israel. As America declares that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, President Musharraf faces the prospect of supporting a policy which could have disastrous consequences for his regime. In return for his collaboration with the Bush administration, he seems to have won reprieve for the A.Q. Khan affair. But his real test will come when America makes a move against Iran or goes for the division of Iraq.
Sensing imminent danger for his regime as a consequence of American action, Musharraf instructed Messrs. Shaukat Aziz and Khurshid Kasuri to speak to the Iranians in Davos. The advice given to Kamal Kharazzi by the Pakistani leadership was harsh and virtually asked them to go down on their knees to avoid catastrophe. Realizing the limits of its own power, its nuclear capability notwithstanding, Pakistan seems to be adopting the role of a regional janitor for the Bush administration. This road is as dangerous as it is unwise.
President Musharraf must stop dreaming of providing leadership to the Muslim world as long as he remains a close ally of the US. Turkey has been bold and forthcoming in its responses to various games the Bush administration is playing in Iraq. The Turkish prime minister openly criticized the Iraqi elections in Davos and has warned of the consequences if the Americans were to allow Kurds to set up an autonomous region.
To offset the dangerous consequences of its policies in Pakistan, the Bush administration has revived with full force various aid programmes which are designed to provide financial assistance to a wide section of opinion makers. From fellowships, scholarships, training programmes, study tours, funding social sector programmes through NGOs to holding seminars for legislators, an estimated Rs. 10 billion will be spent this year by the American government in Pakistan. The US Agency for International Development, after an absence of more than ten years, is back with a vengeance and rapidly expanding its operations in Pakistan
On the political front, the Americans have stationed dozens of agents in Pakistani villages on the Afghan border to look out for the Al Qaeda leadership.
A recent article in the New York Times complained that these agents are being closely supervised by the Pakistani military authorities and are not being provided the necessary freedom to pursue their objective.
The article went on to quote a Pakistani military officer saying that this was being done to protect the Americans from possible harm. The Central Military Command of the US army which is based in Florida and is responsible for protecting American interests in the Middle East and South Asia has intensified its working relationship with the Pakistan army. It is this collaboration which has led to Pakistan being classified as a "major non-Nato ally" of the United States.
As President Musharraf explores various options to strengthen his regime, including a dialogue with major political parties like the PPP and the PML (N), he should have no problem in getting their support for his collaboration with the Bush administration. Both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif have sought American support for their governments in the past and still look towards it for a future comeback. But President Musharraf also seems dangerously close to crossing the line in his eagerness to support the Bush administration.
He has failed to protect innocent Pakistani prisoners in Guantanamo and has caused permanent damage to his credibility in Waziristan by waging war against local populace at America's behest. The economic benefits he hopes to reap through this support may be offset by the political damage within the country.
There is a vast difference between how America sees the war on terrorism and how the world views it. American efforts to wage campaigns against Kofi Annan and Mohammad El- Baradie have remained isolated with hardly any support from the world community. President Musharraf must now be ready to start developing an independent approach to this whole issue.
The war against terrorism cannot continue for ever and must be declared as being over. He must realize that his support of American policies has no takers. It is true that he cannot go totally against American policies, but he must at least start speaking out more forcefully about issues like Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Peace in these countries can only be secured when all occupation is ended and foreign forces withdrawn.
Pakistan should forcefully call for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in 2005 and not in four years as Bush has said. It should also demand the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq and Afghanistan during 2005. It should openly condemn any suggestions for attacking Iran's nuclear and missile installation. Ignoring injustice instead of condemning it is not enlightened moderation.
Waiting silently for power
By M.J. Akbar
When pondering over a long election, look at the arc and hear the silence. One of the more interesting facts about democracy in its current, refined manifestation is that elections have turned from a comparative sprint to a laboured marathon. Reasons differ.
In America they have devised an electoral process that only a democratic fundamentalist would consider rational: they start with elections for elections, called primaries, making up rules as they go along. In Britain, they love the traditional English game of cat-and-mouse.
A prime minister spends half his time threatening an election or shifting the date, depending on whether the threat to his job is from a foe or a friend. Politics remains in election mode long before a date is set.
In India the first general election, in 1952, started in winter and continued for six months. Those were considered the bad old days. In 2004, too, the elections started in the previous winter and continued till summer. The reason in 1952 was that we still carried ballot boxes on bullock carts. These days we have instant electronic machines but we take so long because the election commission wants to protect the voter from thugs, bandits, looters and politicians armed with replica Kalashnikovs or the more compatible pistol. Welcome to progress.
A long election has a different dynamic from a quick one. It was the receding arc that got the BJP last year. 2004 was more evidence that once slippage begins, it is rarely reversed; and defeat builds further momentum beyond the election. The BJP is trapped in that slide. It could not, in alliance with Shiv Sena, find that extra edge in Maharashtra; and it is either stagnant or in danger of further erosion in Haryana, Jharkhand and Bihar.
I am not saying this on the basis of exit polls after the first phase of elections in the three states. Only the very rich now believe in exit polls. In other words, only those who have a lot of money to waste - whether they are politicians or television czars - spend hard cash on such polls. Media is far from infallible. Nor is this an Indian phenomenon.
Exit polls put John Kerry into the White House, sending him into stratosphere for a few hours. But if you get things wrong, decency demands a modicum of restraint along with a mea culpa.
It was amusing to see the precision with which pundits, who got every prediction wrong last year, forecast how Laloo Yadav was slipping and would fall. I have no idea whether Laloo Yadav is going to win or not. History suggests that he doesn't like losing. In any case, if we have lived with Laloo in power for 15 years, we can wait another three weeks for the election commission to let us know his fate in what has become a scatter-shot election.
The results of silence are more dramatic. It is surprising that the George Bush White House, which was so good at picking up the silence of the Bible Belt, missed out on the silence of the Quran Girdle.
How long have Shias been waiting silently for power in Iraq? From one perspective I can count up to more than 1,300 years by the Roman calendar and 1,400 by the Islamic one. Ever since Hazrat Ali's son Iman Hussain and his family and followers were martyred on the field of Karbala in the struggle for power against the Umayyads, Sunnis have been in power in the region that constitutes modern Iraq. Damascus was the capital then; Baghdad was built by the Abbasid Caliph Mansur.
The Shias helped the Abbasids overthrow the Ummayads, and were speedily dispensed with once their fervour had been exploited. Abbasids, in turn, surrendered space and then power to Central Asian Turks before the Mongol Hulegu destroyed them and Baghdad in 1258. There were various successor states, divided between Turks and most famously the Kurdish family of Saladin until the Osmanalis (mispronounced as Ottomans) restored central authority, stability and unity till the British victory in the First World War in 1918. So far, so good, so Sunni.
In 1917 the British seized Jerusalem and Baghdad from the Turks; by 1918 they had all the Arab lands in their control, including Makkah and Madina - the first time in history that the two holy cities were occupied by non-Muslims. The British tried direct rule in Iraq. In the month of Ramazan, 1920, the Shias declared jihad against the British occupation in Najaf and Karbala. They called the British "Franji", a term once reserved for Crusaders.
Memories run deep. Sunnis willingly joined the uprising. The British had to withdraw their administrator, A.T. Wilson: since Iraq was also known as Mesopotamia, Wilson was nicknamed "Despot of Messpot". In 1921 Winston Churchill, colonial secretary of the Empire, installed a puppet government with an Arab face to appease sentiment.
He imposed a Hashemite Prince, Faisal, as the new king of Iraq. Faisal had never set foot in his country till he was seated on its throne at six in the morning of August 23, 1921. The band played God save the King. Faisal was a Sunni.
The vicissitudes of colonial politics need not detain us, except to note that oil was controlled by western companies, and the British retained military bases long after they officially "withdrew" from sovereign Iraq.
Anger against the compromised family of Faisal finally turned savage, and on July 14, 1958, the ruling family was massacred (royal body parts were distributed by a delighted populace as trophies) after a coup led by the Free Officers of the Iraqi Army. The British ambassador Sir Michael Wright went into hiding, but within 24 hours struck a deal with the new strongmen assuring the protection of British interests.
In February 1963, officers belonging to the Baath Party seized power from the squabbling coalition of interests. But irrespective of who was boss in Baghdad, every boss belonged to the Sunni minority. The last and most successful of these bosses was of course Saddam Hussein, who emerged at the top of yet another bloodstained heap in 1968. Of course Saddam was also a Sunni.
Shia political mobilization in a modern context began after the coup of 1958, with the formation of the Al Dawa Al Islamiya by Mahdi al-Hakim and Mohammad Baqr al-Sadr. Its aims were to establish adult franchise and democracy (naturally, for Shias were 60 per cent of the population), revive Islam, fight atheism (read communists) and create an undefined Islamic republic.
In 1965 a fellow cleric and exile from Iran came to live in Najaf: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In a series of lectures between January 21 and February 8, 1970, at Najaf he defined that Islamic state and offered a diagnosis for the "hopelessness and impotence of the Muslim world". The pro-establishment Shia leadership in Najaf, led by Grand Ayatollah Abolqassem Khoi, supported by Saddam, came out sharply against Khomeini and for the Shah of Iran. But the Shia street was talking a different language. The slogan there was stark: "We are there for you to sacrifice, Khomeini!"
Saddam and Khomeini came to power in the same year: 1979. Khomeini gave a call to Iraq's Shias to rise against Saddam and he responded as only he could. No one knows how many were executed. Ayatollah Hakim was sentenced to death but later allowed to go to Iran. In April 1980 Sadr and his greatly-respected and loved sister Amina were executed by Saddam. Since these surnames have returned to the daily news, perhaps you can make your own connections.
Perhaps the Bush White House made two miscalculations. It transferred the Shia hate for Saddam into a welcome for America. And it mistook silence for consent. Washington's calculation was that its preferred Shia, Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, would get enough votes from his community to cobble an alliance with the pro-American Kurds that would enable him to remain at the head of government during the writing of a constitution. (What Iraq has voted for is a constituent assembly and an interim government.)
But the leader of the Shia silence was Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. In the first hint of the future, the Ayatollah had over 70 per cent of the vote against Allawi's 18 per cent. Ayatollah al-Sistani has waited for this day. His message to his community was simple: keep quiet, leave the violence to Sunnis, and keep your powder dry for the elections.
That is why he reined in Moqtada Sadr, when Sadr picked up the gun. The Shias could turn to the gun if they are denied power.
There is an old and familiar Chinese proverb that might be appropriate for Bush just now. Be careful about what you want, because you might get it. He wanted democracy in Iraq. He has got just the first taste of it.
The writer is editor-in-chief, Asian Age, New Delhi.