05 February 2005	Saturday	25 Zilhaj 1425

WASHINGTON, Feb 4: The current conventional imbalance in the sub-continent, particularly Pakistan's lack of strategic depth, could lead South Asia to a nuclear conflict if India and Pakistan go to war , says a report released this week by a US think-tank affiliated with the CIA.

The US National Intelligence Council, which reports directly to the Director Central Intelligence, warns that "the nuclear gap (in the sub-continent) is growing, with Pakistan pulling ahead in terms of nuclear-capable systems."

While warning against the possibility of a nuclear conflict, the report uses the same argument that Pakistan does while seeking to strengthen its conventional arsenal: a strategic imbalance is more likely to lead to a nuclear conflict than any other cause.

In a recent paper presented at another Washington think-tank, a senior defence official from Pakistan also argued that if Pakistan is ever close to losing a war and feels that its own survival is at stake, it may be forced to use the nuclear option.

Unlike the Pakistani military official, the US National Intelligence Council does not endorse Islamabad's demand for more conventional weapons but it does see the possibility of a nuclear conflict in a strategically imbalanced South Asia.

"Under plausible scenarios Pakistan might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian conventional forces particularly given Pakistan's lack of strategic depth," warns the council.

Both India and Pakistan appear to understand the likely prices to be paid by triggering a conflict, "but nationalist feelings run high and are not likely to abate," the council observes in a chapter titled "Pervasive insecurity: envisaging possible developments by 2020."

Besides, it warns, "Neither understands the other's redines, and mutual intelligence is poor at best, so escalating dangers are acute. A major terrorist attack in India also could be the catalyst for war."

The report, however, points out that even if an armed conflict broke out, it may not automatically lead to a nuclear clash as, "outside powers as well as the primary actors would want to limit its extent".

"Advances in modern weaponry - longer ranges, precision delivery, and more destructive conventional munitions - create circumstances encouraging the preemptive use of military force," the report says.

The growing dependence of South Asian nations on global financial and trade networks increasingly will act as a deterrent to conflict, the council reports. The report also warns that the collapse of the current set-up in Pakistan is "conceivable and said it's not yet clear what kind of regime would follow" if it happens.

Although the report calls Pakistan "the wildcard for the region" because of its "endemic poverty, poor educational system, nuclear weapons, and volatile mix of Muslim movements," it says that it's still possible for Pakistan to come out of this situation along with the rest of the region.

"Rising living standards by 2020 leading to greater stability is plausible for Pakistan and the rest of the region, but descent into political upheaval, inter-communal conflict and war between states, including the use of nuclear weapons, is just as possible," the report says.

The council warns that Pakistan's "involvement and interest in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction technology-as a source of export earnings and political power-is unlikely to wane."

"Terrorism will be a driver of developments in this region, an accelerator of change. Pakistan could become a victim of terrorism if President Pervez Musharraf and any moderate successors are unable to maintain control over terrorist groups operating in Kashmir."

Although the report is more favourable to India than Pakistan, it warns that "Hindu chauvinism is likely to be an increasing and an additional destabilizing force in the region."

With the third largest Muslim population in the world-125 million-India thinks of itself as a multi-religious stable democracy, but the danger of religious conflict is real, the council observes. "This could spill over and aggravate Indo-Pakistani tensions," it warns.