29 January 2005	Saturday	18 Zilhaj 1425

PESHAWAR, Jan 28: A current shift of the weather pattern in Northern Areas, Kashmir, Balochistan and upper parts of the Frontier province, because of a moderate El Nino that developed in the Pacific Ocean , is likely to persist till April or early May, meteorologists told Dawn on Friday.

"The positive impact of El Nino that has resulted in good snowfall and normal winter is likely to stay till the end of April or early May. It means that Northern Areas, Kashmir, upper parts of the Frontier province, central and Northern Punjab and several places in Balochistan are expected to receive more rains and snow in the weeks to come," said an Islamabad-based spokesman for the Pakistan meteorological department, when contacted on telephone.

According to official meteorologists, snow recorded so far in various parts of the country exceeded the 'normal' limit. The spokesman said this weather pattern was not unusual and had nothing to do with global warming. But meteorologists based in Peshawar and Islamabad, when contacted, said the country could experience difficult time if El Nino persisted for a period longer than the expected timeframe.

Its longer than expected stay would delay ice melting in the Himalayan glaciers, leading to low water flows in the Indus- the country's main irrigation water source, they maintained.

"Though the chances of El Nino's stay beyond the expected period [end of April or early May] are slim in view of its weakness, if it goes beyond that point, the country could face water shortage," said a meteorologist.

However, meteorologists were unanimous in contention, when talked to separately, that chances of such an eventuality were little at this point of time. The country experienced water shortage last year when strong westerly winds, because of an emerging El Nino at that time, reduced the intensity of easterly waves (monsoon), leaving the southern parts of Punjab to experience less rains.

Experts believe that good snow recorded this year would strengthen Himalayan glaciers, which are facing a threat of getting melted in the next 25 to 50 years because of global warming.

This winter several places in the NWFP, including Abbottabad, Mansehra hills, Chitral, Galyat region, Naran, Kaghan and parts in Swat valley recorded snow greater than the last five years.

Snowfall broke a record of the last five years in Azad Kashmir, Murri, Margalla hills and the country's Northern Areas including Skardu, Gilgit and several other places.

Several parts of Fata, including Parachinar in Kurram agency, Landi Kotal in Khyber agency, Wana in South Waziristan agency and Razmak in North Waziristan agency also recorded much higher snow than the last five years.

"On average, the country as a whole recorded seven feet snow this time," said the spokesman for the meteorological department, adding that "it is an all-time high ratio when compared with the last five years."

During the last five years, the country had been receiving 'below normal' snow whereas this winter it fell within the limits of 'normal'. "It is not something unusual or abnormal," said the spokesman.

Mr Mushtaq Ali Shah, a Peshawar-based deputy director of the meteorological department, said the country recorded 'normal snow' in most parts except for some places like Parachinar and the far-flung areas in district Chitral where unusually heavy snow had been recorded.

According to sources, four-feet snow has been reported in some areas close to Parachinar, the headquarters of Kurram agency, reflecting an unusual weather trend when compared to that of the past.

"While the meteorological department's observatory recorded 1.5ft snow in Parachinar town, there are some areas close to it from where four-feet snow has been reported," said Mr Shah.

Several parts of the country recorded much higher rains than the past. Peshawar received 130mm rains in January, said Mr Shah, reflecting a sharp increase when compared with January 2004 when a total of 68mm rain had been recorded in the city. "Around 135mm rains in Peshawar is normal, hence, current rains does not reflect any thing unusual," said Mr Shah.