19 January 2005	Wednesday	08 Zilhaj 1425

ISLAMABAD, Jan 18: The Baglihar dam being constructed on river Chenab in occupied Kashmir will have major security and economic implications for Pakistan owing to increased Indian control over its share of water supplies in violation of an agreement between the two countries, experts say.

The project can lead to acute water shortages in Pakistan due to suspension of supplies for up to 28 consecutive days during certain months, they say. It can also arm India with the capacity to use water as a weapon against Pakistan in violation of international laws, they say.

According to technical and legal experts, the design of the hydro-power project violates the terms of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty by providing for submerged gated spillways and other structures that will increase India's storage capacity far beyond what is allowed under the agreement.

Experts say the structure will provide India the capability to manipulate the flow of water to Pakistan's disadvantage. They point out that with its increased storage capacity, if mal-operated, the project can lead to serious fluctuation in the supplies reaching Marala. They warn that it can deprive Pakistan of up to 7,000 cusecs of water per day.

"It could go to the extent of complete stoppage for a continuous period of 27 or 28 days during December, January and February," maintained an expert. This, he said, would adversely affect agriculture uses and other requirements at Marala head works.

Experts say that the project, in its present form, can also lead to inundation of the Bajwat area above Marala head works due to sudden synchronized releases from Dul-Hasti, Baglihar and Salal reservoirs.

Foreign Office spokesman Masood Khan told a news briefing on Tuesday that several studies conducted by the water and power ministry and other government agencies and departments showed that the huge pond facility of the dam would slow the flow of water to Pakistan.

"It would also adversely affect the irrigation system which is linked to the Chenab," he added. Reports suggest that the first unit of the 450Mw plant, launched in 2000, would begin generation by December or early next year.

Islamabad declared its intention to refer the case to the World Bank in early 2003 but has been reticent in taking the step. After Pakistan's formal notification to the bank on Tuesday for appointment of a neutral expert the issue has assumed a serious dimension and it is bound to sully the peace process, observers say.