15 January 2005	Saturday	04 Zilhaj 1425

WASHINGTON, Jan 14: Globalization has ushered an age of pervasive insecurity, eroding US power while helping Asian rivals and giving extremist groups room to exploit the discontented, a US intelligence report warned on Thursday.

The study by the US government's National Intelligence Council, "Mapping the Global Future", forecast impressive, but unevenly spread economic growth until 2020. It rated the likelihood of great power conflict as lower than at any time in the last century.

But it said the key factors that spawned international terrorism show no sign of abating over the next 15 years. "We expect that by 2020 Al Qaeda will be superseded by similarly inspired Islamic extremist groups, and there is a substantial risk that broad Islamic movements akin to Al Qaeda will merge with local separatist movements," the report said.

Information technology will give terrorists greater manoeuvrability and may let them acquire biological weapons as know-how and technology moves online, the report suggested.

"Our greatest concern is that terrorists might acquire biological agents, or, less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties," the report said. Officials said more than 1,000 US and foreign experts were consulted and some 30 conferences were held around the world to give the analysis a global dimension.

FOUR SCENARIOS: Acknowledging uncertainties as to where globalization will lead, the report laid out four scenarios to illustrate the possibilities - from the relatively benign "Davos World" to the nightmarish "Cycle of Fear".

Under that scenario, fear of proliferation "might increase to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are taken to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian world".

Another scenario, dubbed "New Caliphate", examines how a global movement fuelled by a radical religious ideology could challenge western values. How the United States might survive radical changes in the political landscape to form a new global order is the subject of a third scenario, "Pax Americana", which questions the cost of bearing such a burden.

"Davos World" illustrates how robust economic growth, led by India and China, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process and give it a more non Western face. "We foresee a more pervasive sense of insecurity - which may be as much based on psychological perceptions as physical threats - by 2020," the report said.

NEW PLAYERS: A central preoccupation of the report is the rise of China and India, likening it in significance to the emergence of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century.

Their emergence as "new global players ... will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries", the report said.

Forecasts indicate China's gross national product will be second only to that of the United States by 2020, and India's will have overtaken most European economies. Both countries are well positioned to become technology leaders, it said.

While Europe has the potential to increase its international weight, it faces "a period of protracted economic stasis" unless it accommodates immigration from Muslim countries to offset a declining population.

Japan also will face an age crisis that could crimp its economic recovery and force it to re-evaluate its role. "Tokyo may have to choose between 'balancing' against or 'bandwagonning' with China," the report said.

"The United States, too, will see its relative power position eroded, though it will remain in 2020 the most important single country across all the dimensions of power."

While the Chinese and Indian middle classes are likely to grow dramatically, those in the developed world will suffer as production takes greater advantage of low cost labour and outsourcing moves up the skills ladder.

Global corporations will be more Asian and less western-oriented, and growing numbers will be based in countries like China, India or Brazil, according to the report.

Demand for energy will also grow. But supply disruptions may become a problem because oil-producing areas are in unstable parts of the world - the Middle East, Russia, West Africa and Venezuela. The intelligence council produces regular analyses that reflect the views of the US spy agencies. -AFP