RIYADH: Iran and the Arab world are coming face to face on the issue of Iraq. In an apparent tit for tat for King Abdullah's outburst against Iran's perceived role in Iraq, Tehran has announced it will not attend a regional moot in Amman on Iraq.

Jordan has invited Iraq's neighbours, namely, Iran, Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Syria, besides Iran and representatives from Iraq, Egypt and Bahrain to the ministerial moot.

The gap between Iran and Arab regimes, including the interim government in Baghdad, has been widening in the meantime. Iraq's interim Defence Minister Hazem Shaalan has branded Tehran as Baghdad's most dangerous enemy and a source of terrorism.

He has also accused Iran of being the real force behind the Shia electoral list currently being circulated in Iraq, terming it an "Iranian list". Tehran has also taken exception to the remarks by GCC Secretary General Abdulrahman Al-Attiyeh that Iran's nuclear problem is a cause of concern and a threat to the Gulf countries.

While talking to the Saudi daily Al-Watan, Al-Attiyeh remarked that the GCC states saw no justification for Iran's nuclear activities. The ongoing electoral process in Baghdad has put the Arab world in an awkward situation. They have no choice but to support the electoral process in Iraq, but at the same time they appear apprehensive of its outcome.

There is a growing fear all around that the election will result in Shia domination in Baghdad. Even US Secretary of State Colin Powell said in a meet-the-press show on NBC that the new government that came into place in Baghdad, the transitional national assembly, would be majority Shia.

Arab capitals fear that a Shia majority in a Baghdad government will lead to considerable Iranian influence in Iraq. This could have implications much beyond Baghdad, most agree here.

The division within the Gulf Arab societies on sectarian lines are already getting apparent by the day. Kuwait's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammad al-Sabah last week spoke of his country's fears of emerging sectarianism.

Further, when religious elements in the Kuwaiti parliament forced Mohammad Abolhassan, the only Shiite minister, to resign, the division on the sectarian line was felt all around.

Abolhassan's resignation was a major victory for hard-line groups and their extremist ideas, said Sayed Mohammad Baqer al-Muhri, who heads Kuwaits Shia Clerics congregation. The entire issue was sectarian, he said.

Shias are believed to be one-third of the total indigenous Kuwaiti population. Almost 10 per cent of the Saudi population, inhabiting mostly the eastern part of the Kingdom, are Shiias. Ninety per cent of the Saudi oil is found in the eastern province of the kingdom. Hence Shias control a very sensitive area of the kingdom.

Bahrain is ruled by a Sunni family, yet the majority of its population are Shiia. Bahrain is hardly 25 kilometres from the eastern Saudi city of Al-Khobar, through the King Fahd causeway.

Some analysts say there are apprehensions in Riyadh that any empowering of the Shiia majority in Iraq and the nearby Bahrain may have spill over effect on its restive Shiia population. In this emerging scenario the Iranian influence could then be felt in parts much beyond Baghdad, analysts here observe.

But this scepticism is not limited to Kuwait, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia. Jordanian King Abdullah in an interview with The Washington Post last month accused Iran of trying to stoke violence and influence Iraq's January 30 vote.