| 03 January 2005 | Monday | 21 Ziqa'ad 1425 |
Blood-stained New Year
Highway tragedy
The government is setting ambitious targets for the next three years with plans to raise the growth rate to about eight per cent in 2007-08 from the present level of over six per cent.
At the same time, the State Bank's first quarterly report for fiscal 2004-05 just released predicts that inflation would rise by about eight per cent during the year against a target of five per cent as the economy grows to about seven per cent from an earlier target of 6.6 per cent.
The SBP report underlines the need for the government to balance higher growth of the economy with other factors like inflation so that the common man does not suffer as a consequence.
At the same time, to attract the needed investment, the government has to work to create the right conditions that are conducive to business. To accomplish its targeted growth rate in 2007-08, an investment of Rs2.6 trillion would be required in that financial year.
This would help obtain a six per cent real growth in per capita income, which would reduce poverty significantly. About 33 per cent of the population currently live below the poverty line.
However, it seems that Pakistan's current poverty reduction strategy is based on the premise that growth alone is sufficient to reduce poverty. This is not the case. Other areas that need to be tackled are improving governance and devolution, investing in human capital and improving the conditions of the poor and the vulnerable. It is here that the government needs to focus as well.
The first challenge in creating the right conditions for investment is to tackle the problem of law and order. Armed robberies, thefts, kidnappings, assaults and petty crime have all marked a visible increase.
In addition, politically motivated violence, sectarian killings as well as acts of terrorism have also dented the country's image among investors. To add to this are problems investors face for lack of proper infrastructure. Adequate arrangements for power, water and other facilities have to be guaranteed for investment in business and industry to grow.
All these efforts will not amount to much if adequate investment is not made in skill development. The country may have a huge human resource base but not many technically skilled people.
This is an area where the government has to redouble its efforts to promote investment as well as facilitate the growth, expansion and modernization of industries. In the absence of skilled labour, it would not be possible for Pakistan to further strengthen its industrial and economic base.
Vocational training should be initiated and unemployed youth encouraged to get trained. The strategy to increase the country's growth rate comes at a cost. All factors have to be taken into account.
These include the pressure this exerts on interest rates, currency exchange rates and inflation. In addition, the government needs to focus more on poverty alleviation and not just on improving growth rates. If this is not done, the majority of Pakistanis will not be able to benefit from economic and industrial growth however impressive it may otherwise be.
Blood-stained New Year
There were fireworks in Iraq, too, on New Year's Eve but of a different kind - instead of celebrating the New Year, Iraqis were dying. On Friday, "only" seven people were killed.
Of the seven killed in Baiji, five were national guards when a suicide bomber blew himself up. Also to die in an attack near Fallujah on Friday was another national guard. A note attached to his body warned of more attacks on Americans and those working for the coalition forces.
On Tuesday, a more forceful demonstration of the anger against the US-installed government came when five policemen were among the 30 killed as a house blew up in Baghdad. With Osama bin Laden having endorsed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's resistance movement, the situation in Iraq is likely to worsen.
The attacks on national guards and policemen show that the people consider the Iyad Alawi government as collaborators. Thus the results of any election held while this government is in power and Iraq remains occupied are unlikely to be accepted by the Iraqi people.
The UN complains that it has not been given any meaningful role in Iraq. The US had also disregarded Secretary General Kofi Annan's warning against an all-out attack on Fallujah.
Such an attack, he had warned, would make the holding of the Jan 30 elections difficult. With polling only 27 days away, there is no sign that things are settling down. Iraq is going through a trauma.
The civilian death toll has been estimated by a British medical journal to be as high as 100,000. The American death toll too has reached 1,500, with nearly 5,000 injured. This slaughter is likely to continue unless America comes up with a credible strategy.
The US, of course, cannot abandon Iraq - that will be a recipe for civil war. But what it can do is to involve the UN in a big way. A government approved by the world body must run the country, while a UN peacekeeping force supervises voting. Only a government that comes into being as a result of such a transparent election will be acceptable to the people of Iraq.
Highway tragedy
The horrific accident at a toll plaza near Hyderabad between a stationary tanker and a passenger bus is a tragic reminder that travelling on roads in Pakistan can be a very dangerous venture.
Thirty-one people were killed, most of them burnt alive, when the bus rammed into the tanker. Twelve passengers were injured but managed to save their lives after smashing the windows of the bus.
The incident has lessons for those who manage the highways as well as those who drive on them. First, federal and provincial agencies in their respective jurisdictions should install warning signs and speed-breakers before all toll stops.
The practice the world over is to have signs up to a kilometre or more before a toll stop, warning traffic to slow down. These are supplemented with a series of speed-breakers, painted usually in fluorescent colours and, in bad weather, flashing orange warning lights or cones to slow down traffic.
Friday's accident happened when it was raining and visibility was poor. According to one report, the bus's wipers were also not working, and here the issue of vehicle fitness comes in.
The fault is with those who operate inter-city buses and coaches as well as with government agencies whose job it is to scrutinize vehicles before certifying them fit. Barring perhaps one or two operators most do not maintain their vehicles properly and think that having faulty wipers or tail-lights is a trivial matter.
At the very least we can have a system in place on our highways, manned by the motorway police, that swings into action each time it rains and visibility becomes poor.