25 December 2004	Saturday	12 Ziqa'ad 1425

The KSE 100-share finally breached through the psychological barrier of 6,000 points and consolidated above it last week and confidently sustained it at 6,045.00 on massive buying in OGDC and PTCL and some other leading base shares.

The widely speculated Rubicon was, therefore, crossed leading to boom conditions on the market. It could rise another 200 points before the year is out despite an overdue technical correction, analysts said.

After having fallen to below 5,000 point levels a couple of weeks earlier, it has steadily risen to all-time peak level of 6,003.00 points and as the mood of investors reflects sky may be the limit.

President Musharraf's US visit and Bush's full support to him for the next four years, continuity in economic and financial policies and higher corporate payouts on average 10 per cent from the previous seven to eight per cent were some of the positive factors behind the current run-up. But credit for pushing the index to an all-time high goes to massive buying in OGDC followed by reports that its production of crude oil has swelled to 34,000 bpd from the previous 30,000 bpd.

During the last two sessions, investors picked up its well over 300m shares at much higher rate. Having weightage of 21 per cent in the index, it was considered the leading share behind the index's meteoric rise to a new peak level.

Renewed genuine buying in textiles, energy, banks, fertilizer, cement and blue chips on other counters was another positive factor fuelling the market run-up. Stocks, despite profit-selling here and there at the inflated levels managed to finish sharply higher under the lead of some blue chips but instances of profit-taking were not wanting, which could lead of to a major shake-out any day.

The KSE 100-share index finished with an extended gain of 135 points at 5,978 as compared to 5,842.59 at the last weekend, reflecting the strength of some leading base shares.

"Owing to a massive rise in investment on the carryover market, the market is literally sitting on a volcano", analysts fear "An all-time figure of Rs32 billion plus could well any thing to a highly overbought market any time".

The weekend session could be very crucial for its future direction as punters are poised for a big catch at the current inflated levels and for good reasons too.

"The index should shed 50 to 60 points, which will restore its urge to seek further level to its next target", some others said "apart from negative signals from the political front in the backdrop of anti-uniform protest everything on the corporate front appears to be quite in order".

Some leading brokers predict technical corrections here and there notwithstanding, the market is expected to maintain its upward drive in the coming weeks also as year-end buying is still to manifest in a big way at least on selected counters.

Some of the banks and financial institutions are still short of their year-end buying target and will remain active never allowing market to fall below the current levels, they said.

"The market is expected to absorb a fallout of the rolling of positions from the matured December settlements to the January contracts during the current week, they said adding that "the switch over could be orderly".

The broader market, however, performed credibly on strong institutional support and absorbed bulk of the selling originating from the badla market. Plus signs held a fair lead over the minus, leading gainers being AKD Securities, Lakson Tobacco, Atlas Honda, Island Textiles and Bhanero Textiles.

Other good gainers included Idus Dyeing, Sana Industries after a cash dividend and bonus shares at the rate of 25 per cent, JWD Sugar, Good luck Industries, HinoPak, and Dawood Lawrence, which also posted gains. Losers were led by Aventis, Artistic Denim, IGI, Ferozsons Lab, Parke-Davis and Siemens Pakistan. Others fell fractionally.

FORWARD COUNTER: Bulk of the speculative buying on this counter remained confined to PPL and OGDC, followed by Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim and some others. But in terms of gain, Pakistan Oilfields, PSO, Engro Chemical, MCB, National Bank and some other were leading and finished on-balance higher despite late selling.