| 23 December 2004 | Thursday | 10 Ziqa'ad 1425 |
Confused
American casualties
The release of the annual report of the Social Policy and Development Centre this week reiterates the point that poverty cannot be tackled only with higher economic growth; for that there has to be a comprehensive strategy in place.
This strategy should address the issues of equitable distribution of income, employment generation and a focus on social sector development. This report comes at a time when there is growing criticism of the manner in which the government has handled the issue of poverty reduction during the past few years.
Given the carry-over of the past legacy, current geopolitical and security situation, a non-supportive external economic environment and weak institutional capacity, it would simply be unrealistic to expect a sharp fall in poverty levels in the short term if these issues are not tackled in right earnest.
To put things in perspective, in one of its own reports earlier this year, the World Bank disclosed that while Pakistan's economy had grown more than those of other low-income countries, its social sector growth had lagged behind.
The report noted that the educated and well-off urban population in Pakistan lived not so differently from their counterparts in other countries of similar income range but the poor and the rural population were worse off in comparative terms.
There is no doubt that Pakistan has made an economic turnaround with GDP growing by an estimated six per cent in 2004-05 in comparison with the previous year. Both inflation and interest rates have remained low.
What is unclear is whether the government is able to achieve a similar turnaround in the social sector. According to the United Nations Development Programme, Pakistan slipped in the Human Development Index (HDI) from 138 to 144 in 2001 as compared to the previous year.
While it did climb in 2002, it still remains the lowest ranker in South Asia. Of particular concern is the country's high child mortality rate. Overall, the social sector has suffered from years of neglect and under-funding.
These are issues that need to be addressed, according to the SPDC report, which points out that poverty can only be tackled through enhanced social and human development.
To develop skills and resources, the government plans to extend the reach of the programme to an additional five million people by providing them access to micro-credit facilities as well as other support.
For its part, the government has committed a significant part of its foreign assistance to social sector development. Half of the five-year three billion assistance plan from the US would be earmarked for social uplift.
Similar commitments have been made about other assistance programmes. What now remains to be seen is how serious the government is about implementing a long-term strategy which will help address the issue of social development in a country which does not have a good record of following through such efforts.
It is against this background that one has to view the latest initiative to reduce poverty and hope that this time round the government is able to create the conditions under which one third of the country's poverty-stricken population is able to better itself in the coming years.
Confused
The re-arrest and later release of Mr Asif Zardari have a legal aspect that is best left to the courts to decide. But there is also a political dimension that needs to be noted. The strange conduct of the police on Tuesday, particularly its handling of PPP workers at Islamabad airport, has made the government cut a sorry figure.
If the administration knew that Mr Zardari's bail in a murder case had been cancelled before his flight for Islamabad left Karachi, it should have had him detained immediately rather than let the flight go to Islamabad and then arrest Mr Zardari there and have him brought back to Karachi.
If he had to be arrested, why was he detained at his house - declared a sub-jail - and not sent to prison? The whole thing was carried out in a most hamhanded manner, and has left everyone wondering what the government is aiming at.
There was some speculation that the opportunity provided by Mr Zardari's release on bail earlier this month would be utilized by the government to promote contacts with the ARD, and this impression indeed was promoted by government spokesmen.
The opposition had always denied that any deal was in the offing, but talk nevertheless persisted that the government had been in contact with several opposition politicians, at home and those in exile.
Is all that off now? When Mr Zardari announced plans to go to Punjab, it began to be said that the government would not allow the PPP to meddle in Punjab affairs.
So is the Chaudhrys' territory to be preserved from outsiders? There is apparently a great deal of confused thinking going on in Islamabad, and as long as the government does not accept democratic means to tackle the current political mess, the kind of charade witnessed on Tuesday will continue to be enacted.
American casualties
The death of 19 American soldiers in Iraq in a single attack has understandably shocked Washington. The White House spokesman has called it an "attack on freedom" but the reaction of military leaders and comments by political analysts have been grim.
The 19 dead is the highest American casualty toll for a single day since the end of the Saddam regime more than 20 months ago. Also, the attack did not occur in the Sunni triangle or in the Shia south - both of which have been centres of insurgency for well over one year.
Instead, the rocket crashed at a tented US military camp in non-Arab Mosul. This shows that the resistance to the occupation is coming not just from the Arabs but also from non-Arab Iraqis.
Seen against the background of what happened last month in Fallujah, the situation in Iraq seems to be getting out of hand. Far from being greeted as liberators, the US-led forces are seen as occupiers of Iraq.
Outside Iraq, too, most Arabs tend to believe that the invasion was engineered by the neo conservatives and pro-Zionist elements in the Bush administration for Israel's benefit.
No weapons of mass destruction were found; still the Republican administration went ahead with the war because destabilizing Iraq has been one of Israel's major aims. No wonder, most Iraqis feel their country is occupied by Israel's allies.
So far, nearly 1,300 Americans have been killed in Iraq, and nearly 5,000 injured. There is nothing to suggest that the level of insurgency will go down and Iraq will have peace. The only way out for Washington is to have a viable exit strategy.
Elections held by the US-installed Alawi government will not be considered credible by the world. In fact, it is doubtful if elections can at all be held if this level of violence persists.
If peace is to precede elections, then the UN must be called upon to organize the electoral machinery, with a UN peacekeeping force supervising the vote. If the UN is not involved with the electoral process in Iraq, it is doubtful if there will be peace and elections.