WASHINGTON, Dec 19: No conventional war between India and Pakistan will remain limited for long and will gradually lead to a full-scale war and ultimately to a nuclear conflict, warns a study by a Pakistani defence official.
The study, presented recently at a Washington think-tank, looks at various scenarios that could lead to an all-out war between the two South Asian neighbours who conducted a series of nuclear tests in May 1998 and also possess nuclear-capable missiles.
The author, who wished not to be identified, argues that recently India has put forward the concept of a limited conventional war aimed at achieving a specific political objective, such as putting down the uprising in Kashmir.
But the author warns that what India may see as "a limited conventional war" may not be accepted by Pakistan as such. "Similarly, what India defines as limited political perspective, may have a different implication for Pakistan," he adds.
He points out that most Western analysts and scholars are not comfortable with India's limited war doctrine and they also believe that "a limited war between India and Pakistan cannot remain limited for long."
Comparing nuclear policies of the two countries, the author says that the central theme of Pakistan's nuclear policy guidelines is to act in a responsible manner and to exercise restraint in conduct of its deterrence policy.
Pakistan, he said, also wants to ensure that its nuclear capability does not pose any threat to non-nuclear weapon states in the region. "Pakistan's nuclear capability is very clear for deterrence of aggression and defence of its sovereignty," the author said.
India's declared nuclear doctrine, according to the author, is based on a posture of no first use of nuclear weapons. India, however, retains the option of using nuclear weapons in retaliation against a nuclear, biological or chemical attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere.
"India's doctrine contains an inbuilt offensive design. The most dangerous aspect of this policy is that it keeps the option open for a conventional war against Pakistan," the author said.
Asked why Pakistan had used the option of a limited conventional war in Kargil in 1999, the author said Kargil is part of Siachen sector where limited war has been continuing since 1984. Kargil, he said, was a continuation of the same ongoing skirmishes between India and Pakistan. The author then explains various options India may exercise for launching a limited conventional war against Pakistan. These include:
SURGICAL STRIKE: These strikes will be conducted along the Line of Control in Kashmir against Pakistani troops and envisaged jihadi camps. The Indians already conduct such strikes along the LoC to prevent Kashmiri fighters from crossing into occupied Kashmir but never succeeded in acquiring the desired results.
So far, India only uses artillery for launching these surgical strikes into Azad Kashmir but under the new strategy they will also use air strikes for hitting targets across the LoC.
Hot pursuits: This option includes physically crossing the LoC and attacking envisaged jihadi camps or capturing certain areas. "It is an open option. In any war scenario India can use it," says the author.
"But if they do so, Pakistan is not going to sit quiet. It will be an act of war which will not remain limited and it can escalate to a full-scale war and ultimately it can lead to a nuclear conflict if Pakistan's national interests are threatened," the author warns.
Cold start strategy: India is currently raising eight or ten combat groups for implementing this new strategy. Each group will include troops from the army and the air force and, if required, from the navy.
Each combat group will have a hard-hitting force of 3,000-4,000 troops and it should be able to achieve its objective in 72 hours, before Pakistan reacts or approaches the international community.
The author says that Pakistan will not view an attack by this new force as a limited war. "For us it will be a full-scale war and Pakistan will respond with full resources and if we fail to contain the Indians, the nuclear factor will definitely come in."
Explaining how a conventional war can lead to a nuclear conflict, the author says: "In a full conventional war, India has the potential to create impact. And if it does so, it will force Pakistan to use its nuclear option."
Before the two countries acquired nuclear capability, India's strategy was to invade Pakistan and divide it into north and south. By severing all links between the two parts of the country, India hoped to force Pakistan to negotiate peace on New Delhi's terms.
The Indians, the author said, also were considering a number of other options for launching a fast but effective incursion into Pakistan without causing a full-scale war.
