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EU constitution jumps first hurdle, more loom By Paul Taylor BRUSSELS: The European Union constitution has cleared its first major hurdle by winning the backing of France's divided Socialists, but serious obstacles loom on the road to ratification by the bloc's 25 members. Convincing Euro sceptical British and Danish voters to back the next big step in European integration is likely to prove a far harder task, and even the Dutch, traditionally pro-European founder members, are in a grumpy mood about Europe. All EU member states are equal, but France, a pillar of European integration from the outset, is more equal than others. So the EU had been watching the vote in the 120,000-member Socialist party anxiously. A "no" would have triggered a crisis of confidence across Europe, suggesting that a founder nation might reject the charter in a national referendum due next year. A French "non" would probably kill the constitution for many years, as it killed moves to create a European Defence Community in the 1950s. "This vote was no paltry internal party affair - it was a vote that had the potential to put a serious spanner in the EU works," said former Danish prime minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, president of the Party of European Socialists. The French party's "oui" by a thumping margin of some 18 per cent sets a trend for votes elsewhere and suggests conservative President Jacques Chirac may feel it safe to set a date before next summer for the nation wide plebiscite. It may help disarm left-wing criticism in other countries, since the French opposition party is on the left of the European Socialist movement and has influence well beyond its size. "With this 'yes' vote under our belts we have the best start we could possibly have imagined for our campaign for a 'yes' to the constitution in France and around Europe," Rasmussen said. The European Commission breathed an audible sigh of relief. Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the Socialist vote augured well for French ratification as a whole. "France represents a central element of the construction of Europe and the signal sent out by the French Socialists will, in president Barroso's view, have a resonance across the European Union," his spokeswoman said. DUTCH PROTEST?: The charter provides for a long-term president of the European Council of national leaders and an EU foreign minister, closer defence integration, more say for the European Parliament and a more equitable voting system for majority decision-making. Leftist opponents say it enshrines a capitalist, free-market Europe without guarantees of social protection. Rightist and Euro sceptical critics say it gives too much power to Brussels. Britain and Denmark are due to hold referendums in 2006. Polls show about two thirds of Britons oppose the charter now, but aides say Prime Minister Tony Blair aims to sway the debate by posing a stark choice between staying in or leaving Europe. Denmark has twice voted "no" in referendums on the EU's Maastricht Treaty in 1992 and joining the euro in 2001 but polls suggest public opinion is more favourable on the constitution. Asked where he thought opponents of the charter had their first chance of winning a vote, Jens-Peter Bonde, veteran Danish leader of the Euro sceptical group in the European Parliament, said without hestitation "the Netherlands". No date has been set yet, but the Dutch are likely to hold a non-binding referendum in April. Furious at obeying EU budget rules only to see them flouted by "big boys" France and Germany, bitter at being the biggest per capita contributors to the EU budget and worried by problems of immigration and loss of national identity, the Dutch may be in a mood to cast a protest vote. Of the 10 EU countries expected to hold referendums, Poland and the Czech Republic are the biggest uncertainty factors among the 10 new states that joined the bloc this year, diplomats say. Poland and Spain fought hard to preserve disproportionate voting power granted to them by the EU's 2000 Nice treaty, which will be superseded by the new constitution. Spain is expected to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the charter in a February referendum, with both the governing Socialists and the opposition Popular Party in favour. The main concern there is that turnout could be embarrassingly low. Poland, with a strongly nationalist electorate, is harder to predict. But diplomats say the arrival of the first EU farm subsidies and a pick-up in economic growth are starting to produce a European "feel-good factor". Czech voters will be torn between the influence of Euro sceptical President Vaclav Klaus, an outspoken critic of the constitution, and a strongly pro-European government. But a Czech "no" would not be seen as a show-stopper the way a French rejection would be, analysts say. Small countries that have rejected EU treaties in the past have been made to vote again, and the second vote has so far turned out in favour. -Reuters Please Visit our Sponsor (Ads open in separate window)
