Aziz's India visit 'averts crisis' in peace process
By Simon Denyer
NEW DELHI: It has undergone something of a reality check, but the peace process between India and Pakistan is not dead, diplomats and analysts said on Thursday.
The diplomatic spat of the past four weeks has thrown into sharp focus the deep divisions over Kashmir. But this week's visit to New Delhi by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, the first by a Pakistani premier in 13 years, has at least prevented a breakdown. Observers say the two sides still have a historic opportunity to move towards a sustainable peace, but only if they show real imagination and leadership.
"A crisis has been averted," said Indian analyst and former newspaper editor C. Raja Mohan. "They have renewed reassurances that we can move forward on the peace process." That process, which was launched with a surge of optimism at the Saarc summit in January, appeared to be stalling after a protracted series of talks between June and September failed to yield any breakthroughs on improving ties.
Increasingly impatient, President Pervez Musharraf tried to force the pace last month by publicly airing ideas on how to unlock the stalemate. His idea: divide Kashmir on ethnic lines, demilitarize it and ultimately change its status, either towards independence, joint control or even UN control.
FROSTY RESPONSE: But the comments provoked anger in Delhi, and a frosty response - India was not prepared to discuss territorial compromise, or divisions along religious lines. It controls the lion's share of Kashmir, and that is not about to change.
"Pakistan's attempt to move India away from its official stated position did not bear any fruit, and you had a very clear difference emerge over Kashmir," said Riffat Hussein of Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. "President Musharraf was being over-ambitious."
Diplomats and analysts say Gen Musharraf was unrealistic to suppose the two sides could sit around a table tomorrow and hammer out a deal - especially with people dying violent deaths every day.
Force the pace too much and the whole process could collapse, they say. "The process has hardly begun, but he (Musharraf) wants to frontload it so much. It doesn't work like that," said raja Mohan.
TRUST IS CRUCIAL: For its part, India insists the two countries have to build trust before they can make peace. Pakistan fears that India is stringing it along, but its room for manoeuvre is limited.
"I can understand that nervousness," said one Western diplomat. "They have a fairly reasonable fear that if all goes quiet, why should India change anything." "But there has to be a recognition that their traditional policy isn't going to deliver any change. The 'jihad' is alienating Kashmiris and is going to be counterproductive."
What gives some people hope is that signs are emerging, albeit tentatively, of creative thinking on both sides of the border. Suddenly both prime ministers want their officials to start thinking "out of the box".
India has begun to reduce its troops in occupied Kashmir, and is talking about soft borders and greater autonomy. Some parts of the Pakistani establishment, observers say, have begun to focus not so much on the final settlement but on the peace process itself.
"The ultimate climb down for Pakistan is to say 'if the Kashmiris are happy, who are we to argue'," said the diplomat. "They need to shift their focus to what is happening on the ground, to Kashmiri aspirations." On the table for several months now is a radical proposal which could breathe new life into the peace process - a bus service linking Muzaffarabad and Srinagar.
Until now, the two sides have bickered about what travel documents Kashmiris should carry - neither wanting to agree to anything that might compromise their ultimate aims. Any sign of a deal would be warmly welcomed by most Kashmiris, many of whose families remain divided because of the dispute.
Diplomats are urging both sides to build true democratic institutions on both sides of Kashmir, allow them to form links with each other and encourage tourism and trade. Only then can the two sides truly sit down, with the Kashmiris themselves, and thrash out a settlement.
"It is not where the line is but the character of the line, and we should focus on that," said Mr Mohan. "If we imagine a border less Kashmir, then it doesn't matter where the line is." It all sounds easy on paper, but it remains extraordinarily difficult to implement in practice.
"I think they can keep the peace process going for a while, but they are at the point where they have to decide to genuinely explore creative solutions," said the diplomat. "Both sides' options are limited, but that doesn't mean they will make sensible choices." -Reuters
