19 November 2004	Friday	06 Shawwal 1425

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KARACHI, Nov 18: Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz's much-awaited address to the nation on Friday, as he approaches the 100th day in the coveted office, would focus on (1) employment generation , (2) price stability (3) governance and service delivery (4) security and political stability and (5) fair and quick justice and rule of the law.

Much to the satisfaction of the government, Ramzan and Eid passed off peacefully without any major incident. There were fears because of the bomb blasts and serious incidents in Sialkot, Multan, Karachi and Lahore in the previous months. The Prime Minister may take a credit for his government of relatively better law and order environment.

Prices of certain food items have eased after October but are still on the higher side, and people wait how the Prime Minister addresses this issue. Good quality wheat flour in Karachi is still being sold at Rs16 a kg.

Unemployment ratio, even in official documents, is more than 9 per cent despite all claims of 17 per cent rise industrial production, 22 per cent increase in private investment and more than 12 per cent increase in exports. More than 7,000 persons who desperately sought jobs and sold away all their belongings to get some employment in Middle Eastern countries have been deported back in pitiable conditions during last few months. All claims of industrial growth and investment in the Economic Survey and annual report of the State Bank has not been able to convince the unemployed young men in Gujrat, Gujranwala, Karachi, Hazara, Peshawar and other places of the employment opportunities.

A hastily conducted survey of 5,000 household during April-May this year showed a 35 per cent increase in household consumption and more than four per cent reduction in poverty ratio. Growing poverty is the sore point for the present government and people wait if the Prime Minister has any strategy to narrow down income disparities and push up purchasing capacities of the people particularly in the rural areas.

The Prime Minister will offer a small 10 to 12 per cent tariff relief to the commercial and industrial consumers of the electricity but domestic consumers may be given a mere cosmetic concession.

The former Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali offered 33 per cent relief on electricity bills of the tube wells to the farmers. Shaukat Aziz will offer 10 to 12 per cent relief to the industrial and commercial consumers. The domestic consumers are said to be already enjoying huge subsidy on their power bills and hence do not deserve any concession.

International oil prices are falling, but remain unpredictable and do not give much room to the government to offer any significant relief to the general public. By freezing the petroleum products prices at May level, the government has foregone more than Rs22 billion revenue expected to be recovered from development surcharge. Oil prices have been retained at the previous level even after Eid as a substantial rise in collection of duties, sales tax and presumptive income tax on imports has given some capacity to absorb the hit.

Market analysts wonder as to how long the government will be able to keep petroleum prices frozen for the local public and absorb the impact of current international oil prices, which are still $6 per barrel higher than $38 a barrel late April.

The government is under pressure from the prospective investors of the private power generation projects who are now demanding a straight tariff structure for 30 years and doing away with the regulatory body PEMRA.

Much of the substance of Prime Minister's speech on Friday will come from an Action Plan report said to have been prepared by a team of several ministers, bankers and private entrepreneurs.

A roadmap spread over three to five years to achieve 8 per cent annual growth, generate employment and curtail poverty will perhaps not be able to amuse the people who want a short term crash programme.