RAMALLAH, Nov 16: A combination of Israeli intransigence, a rightward shift in US policy and a reluctance by armed factions to lay down their weapons is likely to undermine the new Palestinian leadership's bid to impose its authority.
The moderate former premier Mahmoud Abbas, backed by the dominant Fatah faction, is the clear favourite to win an election in January to replace Yasser Arafat as head of the Palestinian Authority.
But Mahmoud Abbas, who has already been installed as head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, will likely take the reins of power against an increasingly unhelpful environment, according to observers.
In his brief stint as premier last year, Mr Abbas and his security minister Mohammed Dahlan were thwarted in their efforts to persuade Palestinian hardliners to end their attacks against Israel and disarm.
And while "unity" may be the buzzword among the factions in the immediate aftermath of Yasser Arafat's death, security officials say Mr Abbas will have his work cut out if he tries to implement a similar policy this time.
"It's almost impossible to remove these arms in the present situation," one senior Gaza-based security official said.
"The only way to do it is by creating public pressure against the armed groups but I don't believe there is enough time to do this before the election."
The scale of the challenge facing Mr Abbas was underlined on Sunday evening when a gunbattle broke out in an Arafat mourning tent in Gaza shortly after he arrived with Mr Dahlan.
Although officials have subsequently announced their intention to bar weapons from any public meeting, even Mr Dahlan, the key powerbroker in Gaza, knows there are no easy answers.
"The incident that happened in Gaza on Sunday will push the Palestinian leadership to take measures as soon as possible to enforce the law. But we cannot bring about a solution just by pressing a button," he said.
Other observers fear the factions' reluctance to change their hardline tack will be mirrored by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government.
"Sharon does not want to go back to the negotiating table since he knows that it will mean that Israel will have to come forward and make some concessions," said former Arafat adviser Mamduh Nafal.
"He will continue building the wall (Israel's West Bank separation barrier) and enlarging the settlements."
Mr Abbas's authority was severely undermined last year when he failed to secure substantial concessions in talks with Mr Sharon.
The Palestinians hope that US President George Bush will persuade Israel to be more generous this time round, but Mr Nafal said such hopes were wishful thinking.
The appointment of White House national security adviser Condoleezza Rice as the dovish Colin Powell's successor at the State Department does not bode well for the Palestinians.
"The American administration will keep its negative position regarding the Israel-Palestinian conflict," said Mr Nafal.
"Bush will keep his promises to Sharon, mainly those related to the refugees' right of return, Israel's claim to settlements and to have Jerusalem as its capital. All of this will complicate things for the Palestinian leadership."
Bush, who like Sharon cold-shouldered Arafat, has said the veteran leader's passing could open a new chapter in the peace process.
He has again restated his commitment to the roadmap peace plan, which targets the creation of a two-state solution, but the timeline has now slipped from 2005 to the end of his second term in 2008.
Bush has also enthusiastically endorsed Sharon's so-called disengagement plan, which will see Israel pull out of Gaza next year while simultaneously strengthening its hold on larger West Bank settlement blocs.
One of Sharon's top advisers, Dov Weisglass, admitted "the significance of the disengagement plan is the freezing of the peace process."-AFP
