12 November 2004	Friday	28 Ramazan 1425

AL QUDS: Even without the state he hungered for, Yasser Arafat managed to build as tangled a web of power and patronage as any of the region's autocrats.

For a successor to take up all the strands after he was declared dead on Thursday is a recipe for certain confusion and paralysis alongside the decay and division of a fiefdom broken by the past four years of fighting with Israel.

With no obvious inheritor to his mantle as icon of the struggle, the chances of anyone else being able to make big concessions for peace with the Jewish state is also minimal.

"I think people should consider whether he was taking the two-state solution with him to his grave," said Mouin Rabbani, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group think tank.

"The problem Palestinians will encounter is that there are succession mechanisms but no successors," he said from Amman.

Arafat was declared dead in a French hospital after a swift decline into a coma and total organ failure.

The implications of his death go way beyond the West Bank and Gaza.

Arafat's death could complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to quit occupied Gaza - an initiative purposely conceived without Arafat that has stirred turmoil in Israel.

And with the fate of the Palestinians a burning issue across the Arab and Muslim world, Arafat's demise will also preoccupy US President George W. Bush, who has already spoken of a possible new push for peace with a new leadership.

"What we're talking about is such a revolutionary situation that it is impossible to predict the consequences," said Israeli analyst Yossi Alpher.

CHOSE NO SUCCESSOR: Not only did Arafat never pick a successor, but multiple positions acquired in a successful bid to concentrate power and avoid strong rivals mean that a power struggle - though not necessarily a violent one - is a near certainty.

Palestinian leaders have decided that he will be replaced as president of the Palestinian Authority by parliament speaker and constitutional successor Rawhi Fathou for 60 days.

But other powers will be taken by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurie and still more by former premier Mahmoud Abbas, the top official of the over-arching Palestine Liberation Organization.

"That would translate into possible conflict," said Barry Rubin, a not very complimentary Israeli biographer. "He has guaranteed disarray."

None of the likely candidates has stature or popularity to approach that of the short and grizzled former guerrilla.

Few believe that any government by committee and without one clear leader would last long before rivalries tore it apart.

Elections, that should now take place within two months, would be difficult in territories ruined and battered by the conflict with Israel.

FEARS OF VIOLENCE: Meanwhile, fears of violence have grown because of unprecedented unrest over calls for anti-corruption reforms and a shake-up of a plethora of competing security forces.

Particular concern focuses on the Gaza Strip, already showing signs of a bloody tussle for control ahead of an Israeli pullout. But West Bank cities like Jenin and Nablus are also heavily under the sway of gunmen.

Arafat's failure to crack down on militants has long been held up by Israel and the United States to accuse him of being the main obstacle to peace in the Middle East.

Those same groups have also made clear that they now seek greater political sway. The Islamic faction Hamas has led calls for a unified leadership after Arafat in which it would play a part - a prospect that could horrify Israel.

Detractors say Arafat should have taken an offer in 2000 when he might have got it instead of holding out for traditional demands like a right of return for refugees who fled wars with Israel.

But only the most optimistic predict that any successor would be able to do much more than Arafat without his background, his ability to persuade Palestinians that he knows best, or his cunning.

Israeli officials say tough closures on Palestinian areas might be eased to help a moderate successor to emerge, but in a power struggle to claim Arafat's inheritance it would not benefit any candidate to be seen as an Israeli stooge.

"No matter what people say about Arafat, he maintained the national pride and he didn't make concessions on the main issues," said Palestinian analyst Mahdi Abdul Hadi.

"No successor can go crossing that red line."-Reuters