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Of Bush's return and the arrival of new US envoy By Qudssia Akhlaque Islamabad: Will the re-election of President Bush for a second and final term augur well for Pakistan? This is the question that has been doing the rounds in diplomatic circles here. While the dominant view is that his victory will have a "positive impact" on bilateral relations, signalling continuation of the present US policy towards Pakistan, questions are being raised about the extent to which the new Bush administration will go to address Pakistan's legitimate national security concerns. Will future US security assistance extend beyond the narrow confines of the US-led war on terror? One argument is that since Mr Bush does not have to worry about re-election and the fact that now his position in Congress has been strengthened, there are better chances of a qualitative increase in Pakistan-US defence cooperation. Foreign ministry officials say that the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan will provide the litmus test of a qualitative change. The earlier Bush administration was reticent in taking a position on the F-16s, perhaps fearing it would become an election issue. Now that the elections are over and President Bush has returned with a popular vote, referred to here as a 'heavier mandate' (reminiscent of Mian Nawaz jokes at home), he may feel he has a free-hand. Another view is that given the US administration's re-kindled support for Pakistan owing to the latter's strategic role in the region, and recent acquisition of major weapons systems by India, the Bush administration can no longer remain indifferent to Pakistan's security requirements. There is a perception that with the retired General Jehangir Karamat's dispatch as the new Pakistan envoy to Washington, the prospects of US arms sales to Pakistan have brightened. Gen Karamat is seen as 'the right person, at the right place and at the right time' to push for Pakistan's wish-list that is already with the US defence department. Being a military man and a former army chief, he is in a position to underline Pakistan's defence needs in his interaction with the US authorities. Some diplomats cite the example in this context of Gen Ejaz Azim who served as Pakistan's ambassador to Washington in the 70s during the Afghan war. They recall how he had advocated Pakistan's case for some specific military requirements and finally convinced the Americans to deliver. However, some veteran Pakistani diplomats who have had extensive interaction with US policy-makers do not share this optimism. Pointing to India's virtual veto over US arms sales to Pakistan, they argue that the Americans will not give us the F-16s at the cost of displeasing India because of Washington's growing strategic partnership with New Delhi. However, this issue apart, everyone agrees that the current flow of US financial and technical assistance will continue over the next four years. A retired Pakistani career diplomat who has been active in unofficial Track-II diplomacy with India and moves in US diplomatic circles here predicts that as soon as President Bush settles down, he will devote more time to taking forward the current peace process between Pakistan and India. This could mean an appointment of some kind of a representative for South Asia to facilitate conflict resolution, particularly on the key issue of Kashmir. One observation is that while the US engagement in South Asia and its support for the ongoing peace process would continue, it is unrealistic to expect much from the Americans on the Kashmir issue. The argument being that because of its own strategic interest in the region, Washington is unlikely to push New Delhi on Kashmir. A word of caution from diplomatic quarters is that the new Bush administration will keep a hawk's eye on Pakistan's nuclear programme because of the grave American concern about Pakistan's nuclear assets falling in the 'wrong hands'. This is a concern that is shared by both Republicans and Democrats. * * * * * The change of guard at the US embassy in Islamabad has been another topic of discussion in the capital. Ryan C. Crocker, the new man, is known to be a thorough professional and is well respected in diplomatic circles. A seasoned career diplomat, Crocker was confirmed as ambassador to Pakistan in October before the US presidential elections. He served previously as international affairs adviser at the National War College, where he joined the faculty in 2003. It is after a long time that Washington has appointed one of its senior-most diplomats as US envoy to Islamabad, a clear indication of the increased importance of Pakistan on the US radar. Mr Crocker comes well prepared for his new assignment. He received detailed briefings by noted Pakistani and American experts on Pakistan at the US State Department in Washington shortly before his departure. He belongs to a league of distinguished US diplomats who have weathered tough assignments abroad. In September, President Bush conferred on him the personal rank of career ambassador, the highest in the foreign service. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs from August 2001 to May 2003, and has served as ambassador to Syria, Kuwait, and Lebanon. Since joining the foreign service in 1971, he has also had assignments in Iran, Qatar, and Egypt. In January 2002, he was sent to Afghanistan to reopen the American embassy in Kabul. From May to August 2003, he was in Baghdad as the first director of governance for the Coalition Provisional Authority. Earlier, he was with the American embassy in Beirut during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the bombings of the embassy and the Marine barracks in 1983. Mr Crocker's remarks about Pakistan-US relations and ongoing bilateral cooperation preceded his arrival here. He had made the remarks in response to a string of questions he faced at the Senate foreign relations committee on September 29. Notably, one of his assertions was that Islamabad's full progress toward democracy was a key factor for Washington in building and sustaining a strong positive relationship with Pakistan. President Bush, he had pointed out, had repeatedly said that supporting continued progress towards democracy in Pakistan was critical not only for the establishment of a strong, stable and prosperous Pakistan, but also for the success of the 'war on terror' and Indo-Pakistan relations. On the proliferation question, Mr Crocker had said the US did not need direct access to Dr A.Q. Khan in order to obtain information about his dealings. Referring to the export control legislation passed by parliament, he stated: "We have stressed the importance that Pakistan's new controls meet the highest international standard and that it takes steps to ensure effective enforcement. Through the State Department's Export Control and Related Border Assistance (EXBS) Programme, we are providing Pakistan with assistance and training on how to develop and implement strong export controls." A keen diplomatic observer may not have been much off the mark when he predicted that the new US envoy might turn out to be another Robert Oakley. A viceroy in the making? Please Visit our Sponsor (Ads open in separate window)
