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26 October 2004
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Tuesday
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11 Ramazan 1425
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Bush holds three-point lead: poll
WASHINGTON, Oct 25: President George Bush holds a slender three-point lead over Democratic rival John Kerry in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday.
Bush led Kerry 48-45 per cent in the latest three-day tracking poll, gaining one point on the Massachusetts senator eight days before the election. Mr Bush led Kerry 48-46 per cent the day before.
About five per cent of likely voters are still undecided heading into the final full week of the campaign, but Mr Bush has opened a 12-point lead on Mr Kerry among independents.
"How will the remaining undecided break?" pollster John Zogby asked, noting they traditionally move toward the challenger at the end of a race. "But who can tell this year?"
Mr Bush's three-point lead is identical to the three-point lead he held on Democrat Al Gore in the tracking poll at this stage of the disputed 2000 election.
Mr Kerry, who is Catholic, is tied with Mr Bush among Catholics but still holds strong advantages among black and young voters.
The size of the turnout among those crucial voting blocs could play a critical role in the outcome.
The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election was 48 per cent and 48 per cent wanted someone new. That represented an improvement for Bush, whose presidential performance was rated as excellent or good by 48 per cent while 51 per cent said it was fair or poor.
The poll of 1,204 likely voters was taken on Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov.1 - the day before the election.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 per cent of likely voters.-Reuters
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