WASHINGTON, Oct 24: Al Qaeda has lost the opportunity to effect a political change in the United States by launching a terrorist attack before the election, says an upcoming book on the war against terror.

According to the book, "America's Secret War," Al Qaeda successfully effected a change of government in Spain by carrying out a series of bombings in Madrid close to the March 2004 elections and might have wanted to follow the same course in the United States.

But the author, George Friedman, argues that the American people have the tendency of rallying around their president when under attack. The public opinion, however, begins to change some time after the attack when people get the chance to analyze the situation.

Using this logic, the author says that the best time for Al Qaeda to carry out a terrorist attack in the United States was early August. Between August and November, the public opinion would have gradually changed against the Bush government causing President George W. Bush to lose the Nov. 2 presidential election.

An attack now, says the author, will lead to an upsurge of support for Mr. Bush and ensure his victory in the election.

Mr Friedman, who heads a private intelligence company, Stratfor, says that Al Qaeda has failed to achieve most of its strategic goals; there has been no rising in the Muslim world; virtually all Muslim intelligence services are working with the United States against Al Qaeda; and Al Qaeda's credibility and operational integrity are being questioned everywhere.

But the Bush administration, he says, has not achieved its own fundamental strategic goals either. It cannot guarantee the security of the United States against an Al Qaeda attack. It has not broken Al Qaeda with any degree of confidence. And it has not been able to guarantee that Al Qaeda does not have weapons of mass destruction.