Forty-five per cent of the American electorate love George Bush; 45 per cent loathe him. Their minds are made up, pro and con, and there is little chance of changing them. Ten per cent, more or less, remain undecided. The undecided will determine the outcome, at least of the popular vote. There may be again, as in 2000, an electoral-college misfire by which the popular-vote winner loses the White House.
War haunts America. Iraq and terrorism forced their way last week into the third presidential debate, ostensibly dedicated to domestic issues. There is no immunity for wartime presidents. In 1952, the unpopularity of the Korean war led President Truman to withdraw from the contest. In 1968, the Vietnam war drove President Johnson from office. The swift victory of President Bush the Elder in the first Iraq war was of small benefit when he was defeated for re-election in 1992. On the other hand, President Nixon running against George McGovern - like Senator Kerry, a decorated war hero turned into a war critic - scored a smashing triumph in 1972.
President Bush the Younger categorically defends his launching of the second Iraq war. He has no doubt about the rightness of his course or the brilliance of his team. President Kennedy dismissed the CIA advisers who led him into the Bay of Pigs. Despite the Pentagon's build-up of Ahmad Chalabi, despite torture and Abu Ghraib, despite the incompetence of postwar planning, despite the collapse of his reasons for looking on Iraq as a clear and present danger to the US, President Bush has dismissed few senior officials.
The recent report by Charles Duelfer, the top American arms inspector for Iraq, effectively destroyed what remains of the contention that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. The second reason Mr Bush gave was the alleged partnership between the secular Muslim Saddam Hussein and the Muslim fundamentalist Osama bin Laden.
The Bush administration put over this allegation so successfully that 42 per cent of the American people, according to an October poll, still believe that Saddam was personally involved in 9/11. But the secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld, and President Bush himself admitted that they had no hard evidence of the existence of the evil partnership.
The third reason was the liberation of the people of Iraq from a monstrous tyrant. But Paul Wolfowitz, deputy secretary of defence and long-time advocate of the war on Iraq, said that liberation by itself was "not a reason to put American kids' lives at risk". Two reasons having been shot down from under him, the American president is left with a reason once deemed an inadequate justification for American kids to kill or be killed.
George Bush, and Tony Blair too, are unquestionably right when they say that the world is a happier place now that Saddam Hussein is behind bars. But was it worth the price of more than 1,000 American lives and heaven knows how many Iraqis?
The second Iraq war fits into George W. Bush's strategy of "pre-emption". There is deliberate confusion here. Preventive war has a bad reputation in Washington. It is not only due to imperial Japan's preventive strike at the American fleet in Pearl Harbor, but Presidents Truman and Eisenhower explicitly rejected preventive war, and those recommending preventive war against the Soviet Union were generally derided as loonies.
So the Bush administration replaced "preventive" by "pre-emptive". The distinction between "pre-emptive" and "preventive" is worth preserving - it is the distinction between legality and illegality. "Pre-emptive" war refers to a direct, immediate, specific threat that must be met at once. In the words of a department of defence manual, "an attack initiated on the basis of incontrovertible evidence that an enemy attack is imminent". "Preventive" war refers to potential, future and, therefore, speculative attacks.
"Daniel Webster wrote a very famous defence of anticipatory self-defence," Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser, informed the press. Dr Rice, the former provost of Stanford, does not know her American history. According to Secretary of State Webster's "famous" 1841 statement, a pre-emptive reaction could be justified only on very narrow grounds - if the prospective attack showed "a necessity of self-defence, instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation". This was manifestly not the case with Iraq. It was not a pre-emptive war. It was a preventive war.
Preventive war rests on the premise that the preventer has accurate and reliable knowledge about the evil enemy's capabilities and intentions. It rests on the assumption of the perfectibility of the intelligence process. It rests therefore not on fact, but on prophecy. Yet history outwits all our certitudes.
This aphorism does not commend itself to the younger Bush. He is an unrepentant preventive warrior. His re-election is far from certain; but he would take re-election as an endorsement of his first term and would probably see it as a national mandate to pursue his methods and goals during a second term. Already, premonitory warnings against Iran are eerily reminiscent of those that preceded the preventive war against Iraq.
He might take it as a national mandate to pursue the policy of truculent unilateralism. Already the Bush administration's contempt for "old Europe", the UN and international institutions is hardly concealed. Never in American history has the republic been so unpopular abroad, so mistrusted, feared, even hated.
President Bush is a militant idealist. He proposes to use America's military, economic and cultural power to spread "liberty". However, there are a lot of bad guys on the planet. Is the US obliged to eliminate them all? Does the US serve as the world's judge, jury and executioner?
As John Quincy Adams, perhaps American's greatest secretary of state, said, America, while sympathizing with struggling peoples, "goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy". Should America seek out monsters, Adams continued, "the fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force ... She might become the dictatress of the world: she would no longer be the ruler of her own spirit."
That is the significance, for America and the world, of the American presidential election. -Dawn/The Guardian News Service
The writer was an adviser to President Kennedy.
The way ahead
By Hafizur Rahman
This is how Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has captioned his article published a few days ago: The Way Forward. I can't decide what to call it - his manifesto or his declaration of faith, or simply an act of putting his dreams into words. But one thing is there; you can read in it whatever Shaukat Aziz has always thought about Pakistan, what he believes at the moment, and what he is determined to do about it in the future.
Heads of state and prime ministers are not supposed to write their speeches themselves, or sit down to compose lengthy article about their aims and objectives. This is not done by even the most cerebral leader of government anywhere in the world. He just tells the staff writers what he particularly wishes to say, what he wants highlighted and stressed, and these aides who have the advantage of already knowing the mind of the boss and on what lines it operates in various matters, submit the draft to him for approval. He may or may not make any changes.
But I have a hunch that this article was drafted by the prime minister himself. It is too personal where it comes to outlining his thinking and in expressing his innermost dreams and desires about Pakistan, the problems of day-to-day administration and the perceptions of the people, to have emanated from an aide's pen. Another thing that makes me believe this is its excessive length. Any good PR adviser (and one presumes that he has the best) would have suitably pruned it with his approval before releasing it to the press. In any case, the man has put his heart into it.
The critics of Shaukat Aziz, in the political opposition and even in the media, may not agree with all that he has said in the article, although there is hardly anything in it to cavil about. It is just a realistic account of the problems and issues that confront the country, the economic crises it has passed through in the last few years and the turnabout achieved both in the public and the private sector. Most of all, it is a narration of his ambitions about where he wants to take the country in economic terms and that is what has made me comment on it.
I have often referred in this column to my long association with the official information set-up of Punjab and casually with successive federal regimes in Pakistan before I retired and started writing for the newspapers. For this writing, I rely more on the idiosyncrasies of government leaders than on their imaginary intellectual qualities and their non-existent love for serving the people, so ably inflated by their PROs. That is why I never comment on their addresses to the nation and their harangues on national issues. But I must tell you why I have chosen to write about this article and what was in it that appealed to me.
Shaukat Aziz describes in detail how, during his stints abroad, he saw economic miracles unfold before his eyes as "country after country transformed itself from relative backwardness to a position of great affluence and development, literally in a single life span" and his plaintive question, "why can't we develop like that too? I often asked myself. Why can't we with our far greater human and natural resources become a force to be reckoned with economically and not just geo-strategically?"
What touched me most was the almost boyish longing in the words "As I looked out of the window of my office and saw the purposeful stride of ordinary citizens as they went about their lives, this thought would torture me in my pensive moments, for if one knows that something cannot be done one comes to a sad acceptance. But when one knows that it can be done it makes one restless and discontented. But somehow I always knew that it could be done if we had the opportunity that comes from unity of purpose and clarity of vision and a galvanized people marching towards prosperity and greatness."
I am not aware at all of how Shaukat Aziz fares as an extempore speaker because I never watch TV or listen to the radio or go to any functions open to the public here in Islamabad, but he seems to have a way with words when writing English. For instance, I liked the determination of his words in this small extract from the speech, "People ask me, can we really pull it off? My answer is, Yes, we can pull it off, provided we all pull in the same direction."
The article contains the usual recital of the country's economic woes in the recent past which always forms a major portion of any assessment made by government leaders, and the facts and figures that are meant to exhibit the reversal of a sad situation from near bankruptcy to the affluence of the government's treasury (the people's affluence is yet to come). There is talk of successful finance management, the budgetary position and the GDP.
However, I am not concerned so much with these (because frankly such facts and figures leave me cold) as I am with the prime minister's plans for the future, and that too because of the words used by him.
For example, I was struck by phrases like, "A healthy nation is a productive nation. This has become a truism precisely because it is true;" and "To improve the quality of life of the people I am determined to improve the quality of public service delivery to the people;" and "The competitive advantage (in agriculture) of each district will be explored and exploited. The idea is that every village can excel in at least one value-added product;" and "All countries that have developed had sound and stable political processes;" et al.
Every new prime minister makes promises in his or her initial political and administrative utterances, soon forgotten by the incumbent as well as by the dazed public. But never has one of them placed his cards on the table in this manner and committed himself to his plans and ambitions by writing an article about them. It is as if Shaukat Aziz is saying, "Here is what I think and what I want to do. You can catch me in the future on any of these commitments and promises. I shall then have no excuses to make."
Let me conclude by saying just one thing on the basis of past experience and keeping in mind the process through which we have received our supply of successive (if not successful) prime ministers. It is not so much a question of whether Shaukat Aziz is able to do all that he dreams of doing for Pakistan as it is of whether he will be allowed to have his way and carry the nation with him in his endeavours.
Americans should boot him out
By Mahir Ali
A few weeks ago, Jonathan Freedland, writing in The Guardian, suggested that the time had perhaps come to extend the franchise for the US presidential election. Given the White House's inclination to determine the course of events and the fate of peoples in lands far from American shores, a case could certainly be made for giving voters across the globe a say in who ends up at the top of the heap.
Freedland is by no means alone in thinking this way. The idea has lately been cropping up frequently, not least in letters to the editor published in various parts of the world. And guess how many of these letter-writers are keen to be enfranchised because they desperately want to vote for George W. Bush? I imagine the figure would be pretty close to zilch.
If I can't describe myself as a convert to the concept, that's because I've held this view for more than two decades, first airing it in print when Ronald Reagan challenged Jimmy Carter - successfully, as it turned out - for the post. At the time it was common for the US president to be described as "the leader of the free world", which begged the question why most of the denizens of the "free world" should be excluded from the process of choosing their chief.
Much has changed in the intervening quarter of a century, but there is little evidence to support the view that the present Bush presidency represents a radical break with American tradition. On the contrary, there's plenty of continuity. Yes, the US has become markedly more brazen about pursuing its agenda, but heightened arrogance and audacity hardly qualifies as a groundbreaking departure from past practice.
Although for much of the post-World War II period the preferred methods for regime change or preservation - be it in Italy or Iran, Chile or Pakistan - were somewhat more subtle than direct military invasion, Washington was willing to make exceptions. Grenada and Panama stand out as obvious examples.
It could be argued, of course, that both of these relatively small nations are located in an area the US has for more than a century regarded as its backyard. In geopolitical terms, the events of recent years are symptomatic of a considerably more virulent strain of imperialism. Ergo, the world did change after September 11, 2001 - not as an automatic consequence of Al Qaeda's vile attacks but because Uncle Sam decided to make it so.
There is a certain logical validity in that line of thought, but it could be many years before the contours of any new order are clearly delineated. After all, instead of the stepping stone to a new imperium, Iraq may well turn out to be the graveyard of the Project for a New American Century.
Should that turn out to be the case, it will be the result of resistance not only within Iraq, but also in other parts of the world. The results of a survey conducted by leading newspapers in 10 countries, including some of the United States' closest allies, suggest that in most of these nations the people overwhelmingly desire regime change in Washington. If voters in Britain, Canada, Australia, France, Spain, Japan and South Korea had any say in the matter, John Kerry would be sworn in as the 44th president of the US next January.
It would be unwise, of course, to expect too much from Kerry, but it's difficult not to sympathize with the view that at this juncture in history, almost anyone would be preferable to Bush. Were such polls to be conducted throughout the developing world as well, accompanied by adequate information about what each of the candidates stands for, it's conceivable that Ralph Nader would emerge with a considerably higher total than the one to three per cent support he attracts in his homeland.
The aforementioned survey shows, none too surprisingly, that Israelis favour Bush over Kerry by a two-to-one margin. Somewhat less predictably, the other exception to the anti-Bush trend is provided by Russia, where the concept of the "war on terror" presumably has a new resonance in the aftermath of the Beslan atrocity.
At the other extreme, meanwhile, a different poll, conducted by the Pew Research Centre, reportedly shows that Bush enjoys an approval rating of only seven per cent in Pakistan, whereas 65 per cent of us have a favourable opinion of Osama bin Laden. That's an appalling statistic by any measure, not because we ought to be kinder to Bush but because the other merchant of death and destruction is at least equally worthy of contempt.
Such exercises in eliciting public opinion can, of course, be notoriously unreliable, but in this case even an extraordinarily generous margin of error would yield a highly unpalatable figure on one side of the ledger. Where does it spring from? I suspect the source is a combination of arrogance, ignorance, fear and blind faith - which isn't all that far removed from the emotional/ideological mix that characterizes pockets of the US where support for Bush is strongest.
It could be said that some of these ingredients - arrogance, and perhaps fear - also go into any attempt, no matter how well-intentioned, to tell Americans how to vote. Such efforts can also backfire: Americans suspicious of the world outside may easily be persuaded that foreign advice deserves to be heeded only by acting against it.
But that may be an unavoidable risk. Although substantial numbers of Americans are thoroughly ashamed of their government's actions - and a growing proportion are aware that the Bush clique is not so much an aberration as a heightened manifestation of unconscionable policies that have been in place at least since the days of Harry Truman - even supposedly enlightened sections of society continue to be dismayed by the astronomical levels of international distrust and distaste.
A case in point is London-based playwright and journalist Carol Gould, whose sob story appeared in The Guardian recently. An American accent, she suggests, is sufficient to invite verbal assaults from ordinary Britons, citing the example of "a well-dressed woman" on a bus who didn't require much provocation to burst out with: "I rejoice every time I hear of another American soldier dying! You people are destroying the world."
It's hard to imagine such occurrences being common, but Gould claims they are not a rarity, feels that they have little to do with Bush or Dick Cheney, and is alarmed that such expressions of rage "(emanate) not from the great unwashed but from the educated and intellectual classes".
The use of terminology such as "the great unwashed" in what purports to be a serious article offers an indication of the mentality behind it. And another dimension is added when the writer blames what she perceives as hostility towards Americans on the opinion that "Europe has always been a seething hotbed of anti-Semitism"!
It is common for critics of Israeli fascism to be labelled anti-Semites, but this is the first time I have come across anyone flinging that epithet as a riposte to foes of American imperialism. Gould says she is fearful for her safety because of the hostility engendered by "relentless America-bashing in the European media, combined with the abundance of criticism of Israel". Aha! "I know many expat Americans - including non-Jews - who have received dressing-downs at social and professional gatherings," she moans.
The "including non-Jews" bit struck me as almost an afterthought. If the US of A has lately become a predominantly Jewish nation, that would come as a surprise to many of Bush's ardent followers in the Bible belt, who may not be all that far removed from the American tradition of anti-Semitism that Gould conveniently ignores.
The moral of the story? One, that fundamentalism in all its forms - Islamic, Jewish, Christian, neoconservative - is reprehensible in the extreme. Could there be such a thing as fundamentalist anti-Americanism? Possibly, and if so it must be added to the list of bugbears. But just as a powerful aversion to Bin Laden and his ilk or even to broader Wahabism need not translate into anti-Muslim bias, there is a world of difference between antagonism towards Washington's policies and a distaste for all things American.
Regular readers of this column will be familiar with my thoughts on the Bush administration. My feelings about its recent predecessors differ only in degrees of intensity.
Yet I couldn't possibly describe myself as anti-American - not when so many of my favourite 20th-century literary, cultural and even political figures are so indelibly American: from Langston Hughes, Paul Robeson, Billie Holiday, Woody Guthrie and Martin Luther King Jr to Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Marlon Brando, Pete Seeger, Gore Vidal, Noam Chomsky, Joan Baez and Bob Dylan.
Most of them, I'd like to think, understand - or would have understood - what eludes poor Carol Gould. "Otherwise enlightened colleagues tell me," she says in her favoured shock-horror mode, "that the US 'threatens the world far more than bin Laden'." Well, it obviously does. Because not even in his wildest dreams could bin Laden have wreaked so much destruction, or engendered so much repulsion towards the US, as George W has done.
The world will be a wee bit better and marginally safer place if Bush is booted out of the White House. And on any cosmic level, what's good for the world can't be bad for the US of A. American voters have it within their power, barring large-scale electoral fraud (which isn't, unfortunately, out of the question), to take a small but necessary step in the right direction. May their self-respect and innate sense of self-preservation grant them the wisdom to do so.