11 October 2004	Monday	25 Shaban 1425

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GILGIT, Oct 10: The People's Party Parliamentarian appears to have consolidated its position in the 24-seat Northern Areas Legislative Council elections to be held on Tuesday (tomorrow) and its candidates are seen taking full advantage of the weak political base of their rivals here.

The toughest contest is expected in NA-6 Hunza between PPP candidate Wazir Beg and PML's candidate Mir Ghazanfar Ali Khan. Mr Beg, a former NALC member, has strengthened his position against his rival despite the shuttling of PML senators and MNAs from Islamabad to Hunza to muster support for their candidate.

Analysts say that Wazir Beg is already leading in Gojal tehsil of upper Hunza but the opinion is divided about how he would fare in the central and lower Hunza region.

Another PPP candidate Mohammad Ali Akhtar (NA-4 Nagar) is believed to have gained considerable lead against his rival Shaikh Ghulam Haider Najfi. Both Mr Akhtar and Mr Najfi have recently switched sides with the former joining the PPP and the latter joining PML. Mr Najfi is a former NALC advisor but voters in two main sub-constituencies are divided about his performance.

In NA-III Gilgit, the main contest is likely to be between three candidates; an independent candidate Muzaffar Ali, Mohammad Sharif of the PML and Aftab Haider of the PPP.

Voters in this constituency are divided on sectarian and ethnic lines with most of them being Shias and Ismailis. The PPP candidate seems to have the support of his own community and those of Ismailis who make up 45 percent of the total voters.

His rival, Muzaffar Ali, was an office-bearer of the defunct TJP and two-time runner-up in the past two NALC elections. Mr Haider is the younger son of late Mujahid Bakhtawar Khan, a volunteer freedom fighter of Gilgit-Baltistan Liberation Movement, has with him the sympathies and votes of nationalistic rural people.

In NA-II Gilgit, another sectarian cauldron, the fiercest competition is between PPP candidate Mohammad Musa, a former NALC member and PML-N's candidate Qari Hafizur Rahman.

Mr Rahman is a former advisor and has already defeated Mr Musa in by-polls of 2003 but the situation appears to be different now as two more candidates of JUI and PML might dent Mr Rahman's vote bank.

In this constituency, too, most voters belong to three sects with the Ismailis playing a decisive role while Mr Rahman is confident of winning this time, too. Mr Musa has the sympathies of Shia voters and could take advantage of the division of Sunni votes.

In NA-I Gilgit, the position of the PPP candidates is weak as the constituency because of sectarian tensions. The main competition here is expected to be between PML candidate Abdul Wahid and Syed Riziuddin Rizvi. Mr Rizvi has boasted of being supported by the influential Imamia Mosque but the later has denied having lent support to any candidate.

People in this constituency are not likely to support anyone who is prone to shift loyalties or deviating from a common standpoint. At least 15 candidates are flexing their political muscles in this constituency but competition is expected among Abdul Wahid, Raziuddin and Himayatullah Khan (independent).

In the three constituencies of Ghizer district, two PPP candidates, including a former deputy chief executive Pir Karam Ali Shah and an ex-member of NALC Ghulam Mohammad, have bright chances of winning their seats because of personal and sectarian influence.

In NA-19 (Puniyal-Ishkomen), the main competition is likely to be between Nawaz Khan Naji of the Balawaristan National Front and Pir Karam Ali Shah of the PPP. Mr Naji is popular among the youth because of his nationalistic views while Pir Karam Ali Shah is supported by senior citizens and women because of his status among the majority Ismaili population.

In NA-21 (Puniyal-Gupis), a candidate of the PML-N, Sultan Madad, is viewed as better placed for a win because other parties, including the PML and the PPP have fielded weak candidates.

In six constituencies of Diamer district, at least two PML candidates are said to have better chances of winning the elections. They include Jan Baz and Bashir Ahmed Khan. The position of the incumbent NALC Speaker, Haji Sahib Khan, has not improved against his rival Hameed Khan (independent).

Political parties wield little or no influence in Diamer district but religious parties, especially the JUI-F has a considerable vote bank. Voters here are divided on ethnic lines (Sheen, Yashkun, Doom, Kamin and Marouch).

This is an area with a rigid social hierarchy in its purest form. The exceptions here are two constituencies of the Astore Valley where government officials are said to influence election outcomes more than the politicians themselves.

In three constituencies of Ganche district, PPP has awarded tickets to Mohammad Ismail and the sitting deputy speaker of NALC Mohammad Jaffar. Both candidates have stable positions against their rivals belonging to the PML while in the third constituency; Ghulam Ali Haideri of PML is tipped to be in a better position than other candidate.