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KANDAHAR: When the main talking point of Afghanistan's landmark election is marker pens and not militant attacks, you know the Taliban have failed.
For all the fiery threats of suicide bombs and bloodshed overshadowing the country's first experiment with democracy, violence by remnants of the ousted militia was limited to minor skirmishes and some landmine attacks in remote areas.
Afghan officials and international experts say it is too early to write off the hardline movement, and that a low-level insurgency will continue to undermine rebuilding efforts, especially in the restive south and southeast.
Mullah Obaidullah, former Taliban defence minister, said shortly before the poll that the Taliban were here to stay. "Our jihad (holy war) will continue even after the election," he said from an undisclosed location. But many believe Saturday's election, which saw men and women ignore warnings and turn out to vote even in the most unstable districts, dealt the insurgents an ideological and operational blow.
"I don't think they can motivate people in large numbers to support them," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a journalist based in Peshawar. "The Afghan people know very well that if the Taliban returned to power, the country would again be isolated. The level of support for the Taliban will go down."
SUPPORT BASE ERODED: That, combined with international reconstruction efforts and Taliban failures to match words with actions, may erode their support base, including among young religious students on the Afghan-Pakistan border after whom the militia is named.
"We have some evidence that they recently had some problems in recruitment," said Yusuf Pashtun, governor of Kandahar province, where the Taliban first emerged before becoming Afghanistan's rulers from 1996 until 2001.
"This is not an exaggeration. We see the effect of it. The trust of the talibs is becoming less and less. We have direct information from across the border." That cross-border intelligence was priceless in the run-up to the poll, and, the governor says, helped Afghan soldiers intercept a Pakistani fuel truck laden with explosives destined to cause a "catastrophic" blast inside Kandahar city.
The only crumb of comfort the Taliban may take from the election was the boycott on Saturday by most leading rivals to frontrunner President Hamid Karzai, after a scandal involving indelible ink used to prevent multiple voting led to accusations of widespread fraud.
But the three main challengers to Karzai, all of whom joined the boycott, were leading figures in the anti-Taliban resistance that helped the Americans topple the regime.
"The Taliban have been indirectly helped by the boycott by rival candidates," said Yusufzai. But if Karzai manages to patch up differences with his rivals, and can win over moderate elements of the Taliban as he has promised to do before, then the militants will be even further isolated, analysts said.
Militarily, American forces admit that stamping out a guerrilla movement entirely is almost impossible. "There's not a military victory out there separate somehow from the growth of the Afghan political process, the growth of their economy, the re-invigoration of their government," said Lieutenant-General David Barno, the commander of the 18,000-strong US-led force in Afghanistan. -Reuters
