29 September 2004	Wednesday	13 Shaban 1425

BRUSSELS: A divided European Union is poised to give Turkey an ambiguous "yes" to starting entry talks next year, with some governments and many voters hoping Ankara will never achieve membership.

A majority of the European public, according to opinion polls, thinks Turkey is either too big, too populous, too poor, too Middle Eastern or too Muslim to join the 25-nation bloc.

Many, especially in the six founder states, share the fears voiced by former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing that Turkish membership would mean "the end of the Union". But eight days before the European Commission delivers its crucial recommendation on whether Turkey has met the political criteria for opening accession negotiations, those arguments are playing little role in decision-making.

The EU executive is set to say that despite blemishes and uneven implementation, Ankara has made enough progress on democracy, human and minority rights and the rule of law to justify starting talks, probably in autumn 2005, insiders say.

It is also expected to say 2015 is the earliest realistic joining date and spell out that Turkey may never get all the benefits enjoyed by current members, and that talks could be suspended if it goes back on political reforms, the sources say.

"I have no doubt the Commission will give Turkey a green light, and that heads of state and government won't go against our recommendation, but I know that in their hearts, many are hoping it will never actually come to Turkish membership," one commissioner told Reuters.

Support for Turkey's cause is strongest in Britain, which sees the choice as a strategic move to help stabilize the Middle East and buttress a pro-western Muslim democracy, and ironically in Greece, keen to turn a historic enemy into an EU partner.

Almost everywhere, there is a gulf between public opinion, sceptical of whether Turkey fits into Europe, and political elites, which officially accepted it as a candidate in 1999.

In Nordic EU countries, concern tends to focus on women's rights, the Kurds and torture. Elsewhere, fears of mass migration and huge potential cost to the EU purse predominate. -Reuters