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28 September 2004 Tuesday 12 Shaban 1425






A weakened Syria

By Nadim Ladki


BEIRUT: The suspected Israeli killing of a Palestinian militant in Damascus shows the transformation of Syria from the champion of the "Arab cause" to a lightweight regional force barely able to respond to pressure from its foes.

With US troops on its eastern border and mounting pressure in Lebanon to the west, analysts and diplomats on Monday ruled out any Syrian retaliation to Sunday's killing of a Hamas official in Damascus.

They expect Damascus to maintain a sense of cooperation with the United States on Iraq and continue to engage it on the fate of Palestinian militants in Syria as it has few other options.

"It is another slap for the Syrians," Michael Young, a Beirut-based political analyst, said. "There is a feeling in Israel and in some places in Washington that Syria is so weak that it is possible to narrow Damascus's margin of manoeuvre with little chance of backlash."

Syria's regional influence is widely seen to have started receding when its main ally and military supplier, the Soviet Union, collapsed in the early 1990s. It championed a total Israeli withdrawal from occupied Arab land when peace talks were launched in 1991.

But after on-and-off negotiations with Israel, talks collapsed and chances are dim of any resumption soon after Jordan and the Palestinians struck their own deals with Israel.

Its influence waned sharply after US-led forces invaded neighbouring Iraq last year and launched a campaign to preach democracy in the Arab world. Discussions between US and Syrian officials appear to have produced concessions from Damascus on Iraq and Palestinian militants this month.

"The Syrians have little choice," a western diplomat in Beirut said. "They can't but swallow their pride and pursue cooperation with Washington." An Arab diplomat said the killing in Damascus was an Israeli attempt to try and sabotage the newly found Syrian cooperation with Washington.

"Israel is trying to embarrass Syria by portraying Damascus as a safe haven for terrorists at a time Syria appears to be inclined to meet US demands on several issues including support for Palestinian groups," he said. -Reuters




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