AMMAN: Jordan thrives on paradox. A darling of the Bush administration, its people, many of whom have Palestinian roots, hate US policies in the region.
A foe of Islamic militancy, it is the birthplace of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the man America says is an Al Qaeda ally orchestrating the bloodiest attacks on its forces in Iraq.
Publicly wedded to economic and political reform, it remains a police state burdened by bureaucratic inertia, corruption and tribal conservatism. Civil society is feeble, the press tame. And for all its vulnerability to shocks across its borders, Jordan has not only weathered the Iraq war and four years of Israeli-Palestinian violence, it has prospered on the surface.
Amman is in the throes of yet another building boom as Iraqi and Palestinian exiles hedge their bets with property investment in a perceived safe haven from upheavals to the east and west.
Construction, along with buoyant exports and reviving trade with post-war Iraq, will help Jordan's economy to grow a healthy 5.5 per cent or more this year, government and IMF officials say.
"It's a sophisticated camouflage," said a former senior Jordanian official who asked not to be named. "For two years, we have been telling the world we are exposed to two hotspots, projecting an image as losers. In fact we have been winners."
Jordan reaped a $700 million windfall in US grants for its discreet assistance in the 2003 war to topple Saddam Hussein, once the kingdom's closest ally. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states now supply the free oil Jordan once got from Iraq.
With the Iraq and Palestinian conflicts raging and other Arab governments facing internal challenges and US pressure, Jordan is debating whether these crises heighten the dangers domestic reform could unleash, or make it more imperative.
"Opponents of reform have always argued that we can't open up if all around us are exploding," said Mustafa Hamarneh, who heads Jordan University's Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS).
"But I believe regression leads to more instability. We need more openness and political participation." Hamarneh, like most Jordanians, recalls the years between Jordan's 1989 elections and the 1992 Oslo accords as a golden age of unparalleled political ferment and possibility.
King Abdullah's father, the late King Hussein, opened a path towards democracy to deflect economic discontent in 1989. But after restoring his popularity during the 1990-91 Gulf crisis and regaining US favour by signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1993, he slammed on the brakes, determined to curb any opposition to the treaty in parliament or the press.
King Abdullah, surprise successor to the throne in 1999, has inherited the treaty, still seen as vital to national security to avoid reigniting conflict with Israel and to guarantee US support, even though it has failed to deliver the extravagant peace dividends once promised.
A secular, pro-Western moderniser by instinct, the king has for now opted for economic liberalization and a firm security grip, while still holding out the promise of democratic change.
"The king's interest in reform is genuine but he understands he cannot do it overnight and the threats are enormous," said Joost Hiltermann, of the International Crisis Group. "At the same time he has sounded the call and there is a risk in not delivering."
THIRST FOR DEMOCRACY: Nine in 10 Jordanians want democracy, according to polls conducted by CSS. Almost as many say they cannot criticize the government openly without fear of reprisal. But unrest is rare.
The moderate Muslim Brotherhood, embodied in the Islamic Action Front, represents some 10 per cent of voters, the polls show, with negligible support for 30-odd other parties.
"The Islamic movement is moderate, non-violent and law-abiding," said Atef al-Jolani, editor of the Brotherhood's weekly magazine Sabeel. "It does not act against the regime and even accepts a smaller place in parliament than it deserves.
"We don't believe this government is any more serious about political development than previous ones." Jordan's electoral law is engineered to favour rural, tribal East Bank heart lands over the cities where Jordanians of Palestinian origin predominate and Islamists have power bases.
King Abdullah lifted a two-year suspension of parliament after last year's Iraq invasion, but mid-year elections produced a pliant assembly dominated as before by tribal elements.
"The electoral law perpetuates the exclusion of Palestinians," the former official said. "But Palestinians will not make trouble because they fear losing what they have."
Since the 1971 Black September conflict when Jordan drove out PLO guerrillas, East Bankers have dominated state jobs in the security forces and bureaucracy, leaving Palestinians to take the lead in the private sector, where many have flourished.
Unresolved tension over Jordan's national identity and the loyalty of its Palestinians sharpens the debate over democracy. Jordan's old guard, rooted in the powerful intelligence agency that vets prime ministers and their cabinets, sees democracy as a danger, at least until the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is settled and Palestinians can be forced to choose between allegiance to Jordan or a new Palestinian state.
Reformers say Jordan cannot postpone political or economic change if it is to tackle poverty and meet the aspirations of a fast-expanding populace, half of which is aged under 15. "People have expectations of opportunity and freedom," Planning Minister Bassem Awadallah said. "Reform is not a luxury. It is dictated by demographic reality." -Reuters
