Despite the hope expressed by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz for a "cooperative and friendly relationship" between India and Pakistan, the reality is that the ongoing composite dialogue appears to be degenerating into yet another exercise in futility.
If the slide is not stopped, the dialogue will prove to be neither substantive nor purposeful, contrary to what the prime minister would want it to be. The form at of the dialogue is admittedly still intact. The foreign ministers of the two countries will meet in New Delhi, as scheduled in the first week of September.
The foreign secretaries will have their meeting even earlier and duly present a review of the ground that has been covered in the first phase of the dialogue. However, anything significantly more than a proforma restatement of their known positions on the Kashmir issue is most unlikely to be presented.
At the outset there were clear indications that both sides will demonstrate a marked degree of flexibility and that their attention will be focused equally on all outstanding bilateral issues and not merely on Kashmir.
However, now Pakistan has made it clear that a bilateral meeting without discussing Kashmir will be like talking of Himalayas without the Mount Everest or of Kashmir minus the Dal Lake.
In the meantime India's national security adviser, J.N. Dixit, who hardly ever loses an opportunity to be somewhat contemptuous where Pakistan is concerned, has called Pakistan's position on the disputed state as virtually ridiculous, maintaining that the whole exercise (of a composite dialogue) was hardly anything more than a 'theatre' belying hopes that the two sides would eventually agree to move forward.
Despite the frivolous nature of his own observations he has had the good sense to recognize that India, being the bigger of the two countries, has the greater responsibility for making the dialogue purposeful.
The Pakistan foreign office spokesman, who unfortunately always seems to speak in a tone which sounds unduly authoritarian, has once more "demanded" the participation of the representatives of Kashmiri people in any discussion of the Kashmir question.
India, on its part, continues to insist that with 'elections' being held in the occupied state and a Kashmiri Muslim at the helm, the participation of the Kashmiri people is virtually there. It goes without saying that unless something radical happens to change the present outlook, the composite dialogue will be nothing more than idle polemics.
One redeeming feature in the scenario has been the exchange of 55 prisoners between India and Pakistan, despite some last minute delay. The detention of the Indians in Pakistan and of the Pakistanis in India, often on some technical ground, poses a major humanitarian problem for both countries.
Hopefully, even though the composite dialogue is making slow progress, the problem would be minimized. The impassioned plea by Rajni Kant, one of the Indian prisoners who had been in detention in Pakistan and has now been handed over to the Indian authorities, must be heeded. He called upon the authorities on both sides to do.... maximum for the prisoners, a large number of whom are rotting in jail.
Although India would want the Kashmir issue to be treated as the country's internal problem, the world community's concern in the matter is no secret. The Amnesty International, described as the watchdog of the human rights situation among the world community, has called upon India to be "more serious" about New Delhi probing into the human rights situation in the Indian-held Kashmir.
In a recent statement it noted the "disappearance" of people in the occupied state and regretted that very few security force personnel have been prosecuted for the illegal killing of people who are described as missing.
It maintained that only a small handful of security personnel had been subject of official investigation. Several dozen members of the Occupied Kashmir- based Association of Parents of Disappeared persons staged a silent protest demonstration in Srinagar last Monday.
With the insurgency in Kashmir continuing to be the major challenge for the Indian security forces, India has continued to hold Pakistan responsible for reinforcing the ranks of the insurgents by helping in their cross-border movement. With the start of the composite dialogue there has been a significant drop in the number of such incidents.
The cease fire on the LoC imposed last year has also apparently helped in keeping the cross-border movement under control. However, there have also been reports in some sections of the Indian media saying that even before the drop in the incidence of cross-border movement, an unprecedented crackdown by Pakistan on the 'jihadi' groups had produced a significant decline in the level of violence in the occupied territory.
The late Nikhil Chakravartty who was editor of Mainstream, an Indian journal held in the highest esteem, once wrote in a commentary on Pakistan: "One gets the impression that... Kashmir evokes diverse response in different segments of Pakistani public opinion.
For instance some people look upon the present Indian predicament (over the insurgency) in Kashmir as a rebuff, if not revenge, for India's help to the Bangladeshis in 1971 which led to the slicing off the eastern wing of Pakistan.
This is natural in the case of the old army hands... At the same time it needs to be emphasized that in all circles (in Pakistan) that one met, the prospect of a full-scale war with India is ruled out. The continuation of the low-intensity proxy war is more or less taken for granted."
Nikhil Chakravartty wrote that several years ago. In the context of the composite dialogue which has been launched regardless of the hurdles to be encountered, even the low- intensity proxy war could disappear.
Only if the interlocutors of India and Pakistan continue with the dialogue in the spirit in which it was undertaken at the outset and meet the agenda as planned.
High hopes of a better tomorrow
By Talat Masood
Much of the talk in various circles revolves round whether the new prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, would succeed in his lofty objective of putting Pakistan on the road to progress or just meet the fate of his predecessors.
Undeniably Mr. Aziz has many personal and professional attributes. He has been a highly successful banker and his stint as finance minister won him many laurels. In this, favourable external circumstances were a major contributory factor for reviving Pakistan's macro-economy.
An impressive personal and professional record of an incoming PM is always a great asset for any nation and, in the Pakistani context, backing of the military and American support are a vital element for retaining high office and that too he enjoys, at least for now, in great measure.
But given the structural and intrinsic weaknesses of the existing system, will it be a sufficient condition to pull us out of the lingering political quagmire? Is it not also true that ever since October 1999 President Musharraf and Mr. Shaukat Aziz have been the two most powerful individuals in Pakistan? So what would be different this time that will reverse the tide and take us to the road to prosperity.
The answers to all these questions are not easy to find because of the complexity of our existing situation and a deeper appraisal would be necessary. In areas where Mr. Aziz is allowed to exercise his authority independently, he is likely to do well - routine business of the government, taking decisions on matters of a non-political nature and not involving high policy.
It would, nonetheless, be a great achievement if within these limitations his government could improve security of life for citizens and provide services of health and education to the common man.
Steering the course of the nation and handling major defence and foreign policy issues will obviously fall outside the ambit of his jurisdiction. De facto, he will remain the finance minister of the country with the some additional responsibilities of governance with the title of PM and the president functioning both as president and prime minister in areas of his choosing.
It is also understandable that Mr. Aziz having won his seat through the courtesy of the leader of the PML and being the nominee of the armed forces will have to work under heavy constraints even within his limited mandate to satisfy both these constituencies even if it means compromising governance for expedient reasons or sheer survival in office.
It is obvious that the PML-led coalition as a political entity would pull him in different directions. Mr. Aziz will have to reconcile the conflicting interests of the disparate groups to retain the party's majority in the parliament by working closely with each group and the PML chief.
A more important challenge, however, would be adoption of policies that benefit the people. A major weakness of the current military-led government has been that, irrespective of the merit of their policies, the people never owned them and the cleavage between the rulers and the ruled widened enormously.
This phenomenon will not go away; in fact, it is expected to aggravate as there will now be the president and the PM, the two most powerful people, operating in a political vacuum.
Mr. Aziz having served in the senate for five years and having a streak of political ambition can claim some experience in politics, but is surely not in a position to engage with the public directly to reduce the void.
The attempt on his life has made this task of mobilizing public support even more difficult. He would thus rely heavily on the media for public relations, similar to what the president has been doing for filling this vacuum.
He will also be facing the onslaught of the combined opposition because from their point of view he is a softer target and obstructing him or his functioning would not draw the same reaction from the establishment.
Many of Pakistan's problems stem from failed or weak political institutions and inflated political role of the army. For this reason the whole value structure of society is in deep disarray.
Pakistan's vulnerability lies in years of distorted civil-military relationship, constant undermining of the political institutions by the military and civilian leadership and the creation of tailor-made systems that are supported by a coterie that generally use power as an end in itself.
The current military and civil leadership in power, however, does not consider this an issue. In fact, from the policies being pursued by President Musharraf, it is apparent that he wants to retain the dominance of the military institutions.
Under the military's watchful eyes he promotes economic growth, undertakes infra-structural development and shapes and reshapes the political process and political institutions for the future. In this contrived framework of governance, from President Musharraf's perspective Shaukat Aziz fits in exceedingly well.
Personalities aside, the central question that comes to mind is whether this approach can be termed strategic prudence or a strategic error? Can a country without a genuine framework of democracy in the 21st century acquire social cohesion, remain stable and move towards economic prosperity? And can a strategic error be corrected through constant tactical moves, something that we have been witnessing in the form of frequent, and at times, bizarre change of prime ministers.
The most favoured argument advanced for military interventions has been that the civilian political leadership, whenever given a chance, has miserably failed to deliver. Some civilian politicians were corrupt, inefficient and even anti-democratic in the past.
This is probably true, but mistakes have to be overcome through the self-corrective mechanism of democracy by strengthening the institutions of judiciary and parliament and not by resorting to punishing the nation and overturning the system for the misdeeds of some.
Democracy can never be imposed, although there are a few exceptions. After World War II America used military means as an occupation power to bring democracy to Germany and Japan and did succeed.
The reason for their success was that America was determined to bring these two major powers in their fold against the Soviets and develop in these countries their shared values to fight communism.
It is unfortunate that for the America's security and short-term goals have pushed democracy in Pakistan on the back burner and in a choice between security and democracy the former always takes precedence.
With the current leadership not allowing democracy to return and Americans pursuing their own goals, the restoration of viable civilian institutions in Pakistan remains a distant goal.
Only time will tell whether the new PM is able to create an environment where we can promote science and technology to propel the economy. While investors, both domestic and foreign, could invest in the infrastructure of energy, transport and communications the small and medium-size industries can become the engine of growth for a "new" Pakistan.
Or, like his predecessors, Shaukat Aziz will get bogged down fighting terrorism, pacifying the resurging forces of nationalism and tackling religious and ethnic conflicts.
The writer is a retired lieutenant-general of the Pakistan Army.