01 September 2004	Wednesday	15 Rajab 1425

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ISLAMABAD, Aug 31: The Indus River System Authority has forecast 'a looming calamity' during the forthcoming Rabi season owing to erratic and low inflows which may trigger an "unprecedented situation throughout the post-Tarbela Dam period".

According to the latest meteorological prognosis, the country has entered into a drought phase because no significant rainfall was received during the monsoon season and nothing much is expected during the remaining period, Irsa Secretary Sohail Ali Khan said after a meeting of the authority.

"This has caused critically low water levels in major reservoirs of Pakistan. The erratic and low inflows triggering the situation are unprecedented throughout the post-Tarbela Dam period," he said.

The Irsa secretary said: "A looming calamity is expected during the forthcoming Rabi season and hence a concerted effort has to be made by the provinces by way of a prudent and well-thought-out water management plan to avert the crisis."

Irsa has already held two meetings of its advisory committee to keep the provinces informed about the situation. A third meeting has been convened on Sept 4 to chalk out a viable strategy for the remaining period.

He said the water level in the Tarbela Dam was 44 per cent lower than its capacity. The availability on Aug 31 was recorded at 3.981 million acre feet (MAF) against its capacity of 7.133MAF. The water level in the reservoir was 1,490.25 feet, 60ft below the maximum level of 1,550ft.

The level in Mangla Dam was 36 per cent below its capacity. The availability on Tuesday was 2.934MAF against its capacity of 4.564MAF and the level was 1,169.65ft, 32ft below the maximum level of 1,202ft.

Officials said the water shortage in the coming Rabi season might necessitate major food imports, particularly of wheat. Last year, the dams were almost full at the start of the Rabi season and still there was a water shortage of 13 per cent.

As a result, the country faced a major wheat shortage and rise in flour prices. "The situation in this Rabi season is going to be worse.... may be the worst in Pakistan's history," said an official.

Last year, the storage was about 7.164MAF at Tarbela at the end of August, compared with this year's storage of 3.981MAF. The storage at Mangla was 4.751MAF last year, which is down to 2.934MAF this year.

At the Chashma barrage, the storage was 2.18MAF at the end of August last year and it has dropped to 0.248MAF. The river flows have dropped from 311,000 cusecs per day on Aug 17 to 190,000 cusecs on Tuesday, which means that the flows in the remaining month of the season would be of no significance.

Officials said there was no chance now of snow melting in view of declining temperatures and everything would depend on future rains in the catchment areas.

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