| 05 August 2004 | Thursday | 18 Jamadi-us-Saani 1425 |
Politics goes on amid devastating floods
ISLAMABAD: Can one hope for a breakthrough in the new round of Indo-Pakistan dialogue on the contentious issue of Siachen Glacier that opens in New Delhi on Thursday (today)?
This is a much asked question in diplomatic and political circles as defence secretaries of the two South Asian nuclear states enter into the talks. There is guarded optimism of making some headway towards a resolution of the two-decade-old armed conflict over the world's highest battlefield.
This will be the second meeting between the defence secretaries of the two countries on Siachen under the composite and integrated dialogue framework agreed to between the foreign secretaries in 1997. The last meeting was held at New Delhi in November 1998.
The talks are likely to focus on specific proposals. The Siachen heights were under Pakistan's control since 1947 but were occupied by India in 1983. The Indian move was seen as an act of aggression by Pakistan as well as the international community.
Pakistan is expected to reiterate its call for unconditional withdrawal of Indian troops from Siachen. The Pakistani side expects that India in view of the "present positive atmosphere" would restore the status quo ante as it existed prior to its military incursion in 1983.
Pakistan and India both lay claim to the Siachen heights. Pakistan maintains that the heights are on its side of the Line of Control (LoC) but India's contention is that the LoC stretches along the Saltoro watershed, which is their demilitarized zone.
Pakistan disputes this claim saying that the area west of the LoC joining point NJ9842 and the Karakoram was under Pakistan control from 1947 till India occupied those heights.
Another argument put forth by Pakistan to back its claim on Siachen is that it had been granting permission to foreign mountaineering expeditions to visit that area. Pakistan also asserts that in occupying the Siachen heights India violated the Shimla Agreement, which precluded use of force by the two parties.
In 1989 an understanding was reached between the then prime ministers of India and Pakistan, Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto, for disengagement of troops to the time of 1972 when the Shimla Agreement was signed between the two countries.
It was then left to the defence ministries of the two countries to work out the modalities. Subsequently, the defence secretaries met in June 1989 at Rawalpindi and discussed specific proposals for the resolution of the Siachen conflict.
At the end of their two-day meeting, a joint press release was issued and its operative part read: "There was an agreement by both sides to work towards the comprehensive settlement based on redeployment of forces to reduce the chances of conflict, avoidance of the use of force and the determination of future positions on the ground so as to conform with the Shimla Agreement and to assure durable peace in the Siachen area. The army authorities of both sides will determine these positions".
In 1992, Pakistan Defence Secretary Salim Abbas Jilani went to India to sign the agreement with his Indian counterpart, N.N. Vohra, who is currently India's pointman on Kashmir.
However, at the last moment, India backed out because the then prime minister Narasimha Rao did not want the agreement to be signed. He stated certain political difficulties as the reason.
The change of heart at the last minute also evoked criticism within India. Even J.N. Dixit, India's current National Security Adviser, wrote in an article that it was not a prudent policy that India had adopted at that time.
In November 1998 when Siachen negotiations began between the defence secretaries, the Pakistani official asked for a revival of the understanding reached in 1992. However, he was told that a fresh understanding would have to be worked out as a number of developments had taken place since then.
The same line of argument could be revived by the Indian side now - and this time perhaps with a pointed reference to Kargil. At an altitude of around 20,000 feet, Siachen is the world's highest and coldest battlefield.
Although the exact figures of Pakistani and Indian troops stationed there are not available, it is learnt that the number runs in the thousands. According to a serving Pakistani military official, Pakistan has deployed between two to three battalions there.
A battalion comprises around 800 troops. The Indian troops stationed in the area are said to be thrice as many. When this reporter asked a senior diplomat at the Indian high commission in Islamabad for an approximate number of Indian troops stationed at Siachen, his response was: "We won't have such sensitive information available with us here".
According to one estimate, controlling these heights costs India up to $1 million a day.
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The Saudi proposal for an Arab or Islamic force for Iraq that has been welcomed by the Americans appears to have few takers in the Muslim world. Or at least not till they have seen the back of the last of the US occupation troops in Iraq.
Many see the proposal as a non-starter and they have good reasons for it. Even potential contributors from the Muslim world (including Pakistan) seem to be having second thoughts in view of the worsening security situation and deepening kidnapping crisis in Iraq.
Pakistan has decided to adopt a "wait and see" policy till the idea gels. At this stage the Foreign Office has chosen not to go public with its view on the issue. It is mindful of the fact that even within the region there are clear differences and it would rather not be a part of any intra-regional quibbling.
Pakistan proposed a multinational Islamic force at the 30th meeting of the foreign ministers of the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) in Tehran last year in May. However, the US-backed proposal of a Muslim stabilization force under the OIC umbrella did not get an encouraging response even then from key Muslim countries.
While Malaysia and Turkey were receptive to the idea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and other neighbouring countries of Iraq had serious reservations. The countries opposed to the idea had argued that endorsing the principle of working with foreign occupation forces would set a wrong precedent - a perfectly valid argument, especially at a time when US threats are also directed at other Muslim countries.
Politics goes on amid devastating floods
When it comes to politics, Bangladeshis are always enthusiastic. They proved it once again by successfully holding a by-election to a Gazipur parliamentary constituency on August 1, when two-thirds of the country was under water because of the devastating flood.
Part of the constituency was under water even on the polling day, for which the Election Commission had to relocate 20 polling centres. Still, the voter turnout was more than 50 per cent, with a significant number of women, some of them septuagenarian, exercising their right to franchise.
The result of the polls also seems to be significant: The seat went to the opposition Awami League, its first since its crushing defeat in the Oct 2001 last general elections.
The opposition candidate, Zahid Ahsan, defeated the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party's Abdul Mannan by a large margin of 47,933 votes. Mr Ahsan bagged 172,658 votes against 124,725 followed by Mr Mannan. Kazi Mahmud Hasan of the Jatiya Party of H.M. Ershad, finished third with 13,562 votes.
In the last national polls, the Awami League got only 62 seats in the 300-strong parliament. Voters again rejected the AL in by- elections, held under the constitutional provision that does not allow a person to keep more than one seat.
Awami League leaders Sheikh Hasina and Abdur Razzak originally won four and two seats respectively. In the by-elections to the four seats - three vacated by Sheikh Hasina and one by Abdur Razzak - the AL failed to retain them, lowering its strength in the house to 58. All the four seats went to the BNP.
Besides, BNP leaders Khaleda Zia, Saifur Rahman and Harun-ur- Rashid Khan Monnu had won five, two and two seats respectively. In the by-elections, the BNP succeeded in retaining five of the six seats that they had vacated, while one went to an independent candidate.
Until Gazipur, of the 15 by-elections held since last national polls, the BNP won 13 seats, while former president Badruddoza Chowdhury's Bikalpadhara got one seat and an independent candidate got the other.
A lot of political discussions and debates is going on in Dhaka now on the result of the Gazipur by-election. Many argue that the people had started turning against the BNP-led four-party alliance during the by-election held in a Munshiganj constituency in June this year. The ruling party candidate lost and the seat went to the newly floated Bikalpadhra.
Many people attributed the defeat mainly to the government's failure to fulfil its election commitments, particularly in curbing crimes and endemic corruption and political humiliation inflicted upon Badruddoza Chowdhury, who is the founding secretary general of the ruling BNP, by the BNP high command.
The party forced him to step down from the presidency. Then came a by-election, in a Dhaka constituency in July, which was officially won by the BNP. But the election was marred by allegations of massive rigging and intimidation of political opponents by the BNP candidate, substantially damaging the image of the government of Khlaeda Zia, especially about its ability as well as intention to hold fair polls.
The government's credibility was questioned when the acting Chief Election Commissioner publicly accused it of violating a High Court order to post soldiers at all polling centres in the constituency. A contempt of court case against the government in this regard is now pending with the High Court.
However, the Gazipur election restored, to some extent, the image of the government in terms of its ability to hold a fair election, as none of the parties concerned, including those in the opposition, election observers and the media, accused the governing party of committing any kind of irregularity or administrative manipulation.
However, many people assert that the result of the election, held without any third-party interference and intimidation, is reflection of the government's dwindling popularity on the back of its failure to meet major electoral pledges.
Rashed Khan Menon, president of the Workers Party of Bangladesh, believes that the Gazipur election result "is a clear verdict against the government's non-performance and against political violence".
"The outraged people took revenge through the ballot," Menon said, adding, "the government would face the same fate in other constituencies if the polls are free and fair".
The Gazipur seat had fallen vacant following the assassination of Awami League legislator Ahsan Ullah Master on May 7 this year, and the killers are yet to be brought to book.
Interestingly, a partner of the ruling alliance, Bangladesh's Jatiya Party, has supported the views expressed by Menon. "The law and order downslide has irritated the people in the constituency, and it was reflected in the by-polls," Kazi Firoz Rashid, secretary general of the BJP, told the media a day after the poll.
"The government should take the hint and work to correct its ways from now on." There are, however, others who do not subscribe to the views. The AL victory does not necessarily suggest a major shift in people's opinion about the government of Khaleda Zia, they say, arguing that "the opposition party here has simply retained its own seat, as the constituency originally belonged to the Awami League".
Between 1970 and 2001, there have been 10 elections in the Gazipur constituency in question. Of them, the Awami League won five, the BNP three and the Jatiya Party two.
"It (Gazipur election) was a localised event, having hardly any implication on national politics," says Obaidur Rahman, a member of BNP's standing committee. "Besides, the opposition candidate, who happens to be the son of the slain MP, has drawn a large number of sympathy votes, making it easier for him to win."
The winning AL candidate appears to agree with the opinion expressed by BNP leader Obaidur Rahman. "The people cast their votes not only for the (party) symbol, but also in protest against the killing of my father," the newly elected opposition MP observed after the result.
The losing BNP candidate, however, blamed the "longstanding intra-party feud for his defeat in the polls". Different quarters are analysing the polls from different perspectives, and they would perhaps continue to do it under any circumstances to prove that politics, like life, goes on even when two-thirds of the country is under flood waters.