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09 July 2004 Friday 20 Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1425



Egypt's two-pronged strategy for Gaza

By Mounir B. Abboud


BEIRUT: Despite breaking the Arab consensus to sign the first peace treaty with Israel approximately 25 years ago, Egypt enjoys the confidence of the Palestinian leadership.

Consequently, Egypt has assumed a central role in the search for settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The Palestinians' deep-rooted belief that their Egyptian partner has no hidden interests in Palestine has consolidated their trust in Egypt.

Furthermore, Egyptian support for the Palestinian cause is firm and springs from profound and genuine relationship that transcend considerations of present unstable interests. In contrast even though Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, successive Israeli governments have complained about the coldness of the peace with Egypt and the Egyptian bias toward the Palestinian cause.

Despite having always been suspicious of the traditional Egyptian role regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon now wants to rely on Egypt, particularly with respect to security aspects to implement his unilateral plan for gradual withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

In this respect it appears that Egypt is responsive to the Israeli proposal, leading us to the main problems raised within this context; what are the motives behind Sharon's shift in position to rely on Egypt to implement his plan? Why would Egypt respond to the Israeli demand? Does such a response express a change on the traditional Egyptian approach toward the Palestinian cause and the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?

Five motives behind Sharon's pursuit for a central Egyptian security role in the Gaza Strip can be recalled. First, Sharon became aware that the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, in order to be acceptable on Palestinian, regional and international levels, must ultimately be completed and accompanied by serious and significant measures taken by Israel in the West Bank.

Furthermore in order to gain credibility, Israel must relinquish its control over the borders separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt. Such a move would imply a kind of Palestinian sovereignty in the Gaza Strip that could suggest a step forward towards establishing a Palestinian state exists.

Second, Sharon in expressing the stance of a broad Israeli majority that no longer trusts transferring the responsibility for security within the Palestinian territories to the Palestinian Authority. Within this context, Israel is obliged to rely on a third party that it deems more reliable, thus providing an opening for Egypt as a dependable substitute.

Third, according to Sharon, relying on Egypt with respect to the security of the Gaza Strip increases the confidence of all the Israeli politicians who are hesitant to support his plan.

Indeed, Egypt is a country that has abided by its commitment to the treaties and agreements. Broad Israeli opposition to Sharon's plan necessitates his using all means to ease the public's mind and facilitate the process.

Fourth, it would be favourable for Sharon to have Egyptian involvement in his plan due to the confidence Egypt inspires in the Palestinian leadership. As such, Egypt will be able to exert "positive" pressure on the Palestinians to accept and implement the plan.

Finally Egypt's involvement in assuring the security role in the Gaza Strip will serve as a precedent and a reference for a possible future Jordanian security role in the West Bank.

Attaining advance security guarantees is necessary for Sharon and Israel in order to be able to proclaim a Palestinian state, which will be required to settle the Palestinian/Arab-Israel conflict.

For its part, Egypt appears inclined to participate in the discussions and implementation of Sharon's plan due to four principal factors. First, Egypt is dissatisfied with the deterioration of the Palestinian leadership and inconsistencies within the Palestinian agenda.

According to Egypt, these issues are a major threat to the Palestinian cause. If the situation persists, any hope of realizing Palestinian rights will be eliminated. Therefore it is Egypt's obligation to contribute to getting the Palestinian in order as soon as possible in order to prevent the current breakdown from reaching a climax.

Second, Egypt recognizes that Sharon's plan is Israel's last word following the collapse of the "roadmap" - the Beirut peace initiative and Arab peace efforts. Egypt believes that it must play a role due to the abnormal circumstances of Palestinians today.

As long as there is no alternative to Sharon's plan, Egypt appears convinced that the plan will serve as a preliminary bridge obliging Israel to relinquish the majority of the West Bank, which is necessary for a comprehensive settlement.

Third, Egypt is concerned that, if Israel withdraws from Gaza, the strip could involve into a hub of tension that would negatively influence Egypt's steady relationships with Israel and the United States.

In order to safeguard its relationships, Egypt is willing to play a central role in maintaining security in the Gaza Strip, particularly with respect to control over the Palestinian-Egyptian border.

Taking the aforementioned factors into account eliminates justification regarding border control on behalf of the Israelis. Egypt believes its central security role will result in the complete termination of the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip.

Finally it is important to remember that Egypt has recently been under tremendous American and international pressure and has been a direct target of the US "Greater Middle East Project".

Therefore Egypt is compelled to perform well with respect to the pursuit of Palestinian-Israeli settlement, even though a comprehensive agreement is not yet on the horizon. Has the Egyptian role changed? Egypt is attempting to manoeuvre in order to firmly sustain its principles regarding the Palestinian cause.




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