CAIRO: Egypt's offer to help Palestinians cope with any Israeli withdrawal from Gaza threatens to drag it into the crossfire of a conflict with no easy exit.
But some analysts say Cairo might be calculating it would be even riskier to let Gaza sink into chaos.
That could undermine calls for Israel to quit other Palestinian areas and benefit militants who thrive on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has vowed to pull troops and settlers out of Gaza by the end of 2005, leaving a vacuum in a region on Egypt's border that is a hotbed of militancy.
Analysts say Palestinian security forces would then struggle to maintain control. With little movement from other players in the peace process, Egypt has offered to send up to 200 security experts to Gaza before any pullout, demanded security reforms from the Palestinians and called for Israeli commitments on further withdrawals.
Analysts said Egypt, which won a hard fought battle with militants trying to overthrow the government in the 1990s, might fear a spread of militancy from Gaza. "I think the prospect of having something on your borders controlled by Hamas would probably be quite a driving factor," said one Western diplomat in Egypt.
"Competition between rival (Palestinian) groups there is very likely, and this would create instability in the Gaza Strip that could spill over into Egypt," said Gamal Abdel-Gawad from Egypt's Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
Militants across the region often draw on the continuing Palestinian conflict to justify their violence. Some also fear that if the Palestinians cannot keep control in Gaza after the evacuation, Israel could use that as an argument against widening its withdrawal plan, which currently includes only four of the 120 Jewish enclaves in the West Bank.
"I think any talk about a further withdrawal from the West Bank or the impelementation of the 'road map' will be almost impossible if the Palestinians fail to run Gaza in a proper way," Abdel-Gawad said.
LINE OF FIRE: Egypt's plan, which goes beyond a traditional mediation role and potentially puts Egyptian security experts in the line of fire, may depend on what response Egypt receives from demands it has made, such as safeguards for Egyptian personnel.
Such assurances may be aimed at ensuring it does not become bogged down in the conflict once personnel are deployed. But political scientist Emad Shaheen said conflict zones had a habit of wrecking even the most well thought-out exit strategies.
"The dangers are in three elements: one of course is the extent of the involvement, the second is getting entangled and third is not being able to secure a safe exit," he said.
Egypt has said any Israeli withdrawal from Gaza should be part of an evacuation from all occupied Palestinian land. Sharon's plan so far falls well short of that. Palestinian officials have said Egypt would not send security experts ahead of an Israeli pullout unless all Palestinian factions accepted Cairo's involvement and a truce.
"If Egypt will go, it will be with agreement with all the factions... They will not jeopardise themselves in a situation of confrontation with any Palestinians," said Egyptian analyst Randa Ashmawi.
But militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad have already expressed concerns about an Egyptian security role and warned Egypt not to be seen to serve Israeli interests. If Egyptian experts are put in the firing line, Egyptian public opinion could quickly turn against any involvement, some analysts said.
"There are plenty (of reasons) for any number of people to think negatively of the Egyptian presence there. And once any Egyptian is shot that will inflame the public opinion in Egypt and put us on a track of collision with the Palestinian national movement," said Al-Ahram's Mohamed al-Sayed Said.
Some analysts fear Egypt could end up being blamed by Israel, with which it signed a peace treaty in 1979, for any security failures in Gaza after its experts arrive.
Ahram's Said said Egypt may be seeking to win approval from the United States, a major aid donor to Egypt and a supporter of Sharon's plan. But he said such a strategy would be better pursued after this year's US presidential elections.
US backing for Egypt's efforts is not guaranteed. A report by Egypt's official news agency MENA said Cairo was aware of the US administration's reluctance to get involved in a plan that could fail so close to a presidential vote. -Reuters
