ISLAMABAD, June 14: The agriculture sector is projected to continue with a dismal growth rate of 2.7 per cent during 2004-05 which has compelled the government to fix a conservative target of 6.6 per cent overall GDP growth next year, Dawn has learnt.

Officials said a change in cropping pattern has been planned under which sugarcane and rice areas would be massively substituted with low-water consuming crops like cotton, beet and other high value crops.

During the current year, Pakistan achieved a GDP growth rate of 6.4 per cent against its budget target of 5.3 per cent. Agriculture sector grew by 2.6 per cent against a target of 4.2 per cent during the current year, even lower than last year's growth of 4.1 per cent.

Official documents obtained from the Planning Commission suggest that 2.7 per cent growth target for agriculture is based on existing position of major and minor crops, as well as other sub-sectors like livestock, fishery and forestry.

This growth is premised on the expectations of improved water availability, adoption of water-saving techniques and changes in the cropping patterns to cope with any drought situation.

The output of major crops is targeted to grow by three per cent compared with achievement of 2.8 per cent in 2003-04. The target of cotton production has been set at 10.7 million bales compared to the output of 10.05 million bales in 2003-04.

The sugarcane production is targeted at 50.9 million tons as against the achieved level of 53.4 million tons in the year 2003-04 and 52.1 million tons in 2002-03. The wheat production is targeted at 20.8 million tons against the achieved level of 19.8 million tons during 2003-04.

Rice and maize productions are targeted at 5.1 million tons and 2.2 million tons against achievement of 4.8 million tons and 1.8 million tons, respectively, in the year 2003-04.

The production of high value-added crops, fruits, vegetables and flowers will be increased and their export will be promoted by improving their quality. The private sector will be encouraged to establish processing, grading, packaging and cold storage through provision of liberal credit and other facilities to promote exports.

Water use efficiency will be improved through lining of watercourses and reducing losses of the irrigation system, particularly in water scarce areas. Emphasis will be given to crops requiring less water. Thus, area under Irri-rice will be reduced and substituted with cotton, oil seeds and pulses.

Similarly, area under sugarcane will be reduced and substituted with sugar beet and high value crops. The minor crops are targeted to grow by 1.7 per cent, the rate which was achieved during 2003-04. The livestock sub-sector is targeted to grow by 2.8 per cent.