LONDON, May 16: Speculation about the future of Tony Blair intensified on Sunday with an opinion poll showing waning support for the British prime minister
and a newspaper saying top members of his cabinet had discussed his succession.
Mired in crisis over Iraq, Blair faces increasing calls to stand down, some from Labour party members worried that their leader and one-time best electoral asset, who has led them to two election victories, is now a liability.
An opinion survey found nearly half of voters thought he should go before the next election, expected around next May. And support from key allies - two senior ministers insisted on Sunday that Blair would stay put - and his own vow to fight on have done little to quell speculation he may quit.
The Sunday Herald reported that Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who is favourite to succeed Blair, discussed the succession at length in a car in Scotland last weekend.
The Scottish paper cited sources close to Prescott as saying the two talked about prospects for a "peaceful succession" and how the deputy prime minister could help to arrange a leadership contest that would unite rather than divide their party.
Prescott said in the Times newspaper on Saturday that senior ministers had discussed a future without Blair, but he later played down the significance of his comments, saying there had been leadership speculation, but there was no race for the prime minister's position.
The Sunday Times, whose YouGov poll published on Sunday showed nearly half of voters think Blair should step down before the next election, reported that senior party figures were positioning themselves ahead of a possible leadership change.
It said Brown's allies had made detailed plans for a government led by him after a handover by Blair at Labour's party conference in the autumn. Suffering the mid-term blues after seven years in power, Labour is braced for a trouncing in municipal council and European Parliament elections on June 10 - hurt most by the crisis over Iraq.
While the party is still widely expected to win the next general election, commentators say the speculation swirling around Blair, which would have been unthinkable even a few months ago, makes him weaker than ever.
The fragility of his support was highlighted on Friday when the government amended a bill to defuse a major rebellion by members of parliament over plans to protect pensions.
POISONED CHALICE: Some analysts say choosing a replacement with no end in sight to Iraq's difficulties could constitute a poisoned chalice for Blair's successor and be no help to the party.
Others emphasise the prime minister's determination to resolve the difficulties of Britain's involvement in the US-led force in Iraq. Top cabinet figures, including Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, said the prime minister would stay.
"He is determined to see this job through," Hoon told BBC television. "He doesn't seem to me to be a prime minister contemplating retirement, he's a man focused and engaged on the job, determined to sort out Iraq."
Many voters are still unconvinced by the reasons Blair gave for war and the scandal that has erupted this month over abuse of Iraqi prisoners has given Labour parliamentarians ammunition to call on the government to distance itself from US policies. -Reuters
