Contrary to what most pre-election forecasts indicated, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had quite a bumpy ride in India's general elections which concluded on Monday.
With the counting of the votes still in progress, the final results will not be known until after these lines have appeared in print. However, it is already obvious that the BJP has had to face some unpleasant surprises. Yet, it will probably scrape through.
First reports after the polling suggest that by an unofficial count the BJP and its allies could be short by as many as 54 seats as against their present strength in the Lok Sabha.
The major opposition, the Congress, is said to be in a position to gain by about the same number of seats as those lost by the NDA. The view has been expressed that going by their poor governance in the outgoing government, "most sitting (NDA) MPs should not get another shot at power."
However, the NDA may yet be able to muster enough seats in its support to be able to remain in power for the time being. The social status, caste linkages, family connections, and of course wealth, of the sitting MPs count for a great deal whether in India or Pakistan.
What has been a setback to the NDA is the humiliation suffered by some of its prestigious constituencies in South India. A particularly nasty jolt has been the defeat of the NDA backed Telegu Desam party's Andhra Pradesh chief minister, Chandrababu Naidu, in the state elections. His fate in the national elections is not likely to be better.
Another major South Indian political leader, M. Karunanidhi of Tamil Nadu appears disillusioned with the BJP's policies. He has announced that he would not be returning to the NDA coalition.
Of the greatest significance to the BJP's future, however, would be its performance in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, two states that between them command the largest (120) number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
According to a recent opinion poll, the NDA could gain eight seats in the UP but in Bihar, it could lose five. However, in the UP, a close supporter of an overzealous BJP leader, Lalji Tandon, to celebrate his birthday, decided to distribute free saris worth Rs 40 each to poor women.
Some 15,000 women were crammed in a small confined enclosure, and 21 women were killed in the ensuing stampede.
The opposition in the state demanded Tando's arrest under Section 144 which bans an assembly of more than five persons. A widely influential news journal India Today offered the comment: "...with the birthday blowout turning into a horrible mishap, party leaders are in a fix over its ramifications for the polls."
A significant outcome of the election campaign has been the emergence of Ms Sonia Gandhi as a major national leader, capable of providing an alternative to the ruling leadership.
She is no longer regarded as an outsider with no place in India's national life. A typical comment about her performance in the elections has been: "... having cobbled together a few formidable alliances in different states, the doddering Congress party (under her leadership) has begun to bounce back in the campaign even as the NDA juggernaut, with fewer allies this time, has begun to lose its early lead."
Ms Sonia Gandhi filed her nomination papers from the Rae Bareilly constituency. Her field trips have generally been popular. Since December 27, she has travelled some 42,000 kilometers and even campaigned in parts of the unsettled upper regions of Assam where militants have been carrying out anti-BJP agitation.
Such hectic involvement with the national elections has given Ms Sonia Gandhi enough confidence to say: "Deport foreigners but don't harass genuine citizens." Her party's manifesto was released by two ex-foreign secretaries, K. Natwar Singh and J.N. Dixit.
The former also served as a close aide to the late Mrs Gandhi while she was at the head of the Congress. Dixit was once India's ambassador in Islamabad and is now Congress Party's foreign affairs adviser.
No political writer in India seriously speaks of Ms Sonia Gandhi as having a chance to come to the head of the next government. None of the election analyses published in the press have said that the Congress could be the single largest party in the next Lok Sabha.
However, there is also the view that under Ms Gandhi's leadership, the Congress may be able to cobble together an alliance that would enable it to "hold the reins of national power for the first time since 1996."
This may seem far-fetched but with the erosion of the NDA/BJP's popularity this could be possible. Whether Pakistan would feel complacent or uneasy because of the developments is not an easy question to answer.
Pakistan's alienation from India began at a time when the Congress came into power i.e. virtually at the beginning. Pandit Nehru's ideal and his commitment to secular politics did not prevent Pakistan from drifting away from India. Over the subsequent decades, the gap has only widened, despite attempts by both sides to bridge it.
Since J.N. "Mani" Dixit once served as ambassador in Pakistan (1989 to 1991) and he has even otherwise expressed his view at length in his book Anatomy of a Flawed Inheritance dealing with India-Pakistan relations (1970 to 1994), his serving as Sonia Gandhi's close aide on India's relations with Pakistan, if she comes to power, is a possibility which should be seriously considered.
Dixit is something of a hard-liner, although he is generally rational and seldom impulsive or sentimental. But he is also very nationalistic.
While it is generally believed that both the BJP and the Congress are committed to staying with the ongoing India-Pakistan peace process it is only natural that Vajpayee should be expected to be more flexible in any negotiations with Pakistan: he is the father of the peace process.
The negotiations would reach a crucial stage around July-August when the Kashmir issue comes up for resolution. At that stage the personality of whoever is negotiating from the Indian side will be a critical factor.
If the view on Kashmir expressed by J.N. Dixit in his book are any guide, he is not likely to deviate from India's position under the Simla agreement. He also has certain fixed notions about the psyche of the Pakistani leadership with respect to Indian leadership relations.
He believes - and he has stressed this more than once in his book - that during the freedom movement Pakistani leaders such as Jinnah were "eclipsed" by Hindu leaders such as Mahatma Gandhi and Nehru. The consequent "bitterness still permeates the psyche of the Pakistani power elite."
He is honest enough to recognize that India's strong stand on the accession of Jammu and Kashmir, Hyderabad and Junagarh generated a genuine apprehension that India would try to nullify the partition by subverting the state of Pakistan, by breaking it up or by reabsorbing its territory according to the Hindu plans for Akhand Bharat.
As far as I can recall, nowhere in his book does Mani Dixit suggest as to what India should be doing to help Pakistan overcome such fears. He merely wants Pakistanis to accept his words that all these fears are baseless.
Perhaps one is getting rather prematurely concerned with the matter. In reality, there is no imminent prospect of Ms Sonia Gandhi holding the office of prime minister of India and there is even less of a prospect of Dixit calling the shots if Pakistan has to deal with Ms Gandhi and not Atal Behari Vajpayee.
Perhaps what merits much more serious thought is a plea made by one of Dixit's eminent colleagues, Mani Shankar Iyer, who too for some time served in a senior diplomatic post in Pakistan and continues to have a large circle of friends and well-wishers here.
Mani Shankar at the launching of his book Pakistan Papers, in New Delhi some time ago, said: despite all the difficulties and tensions between the two countries, they should continue to work towards a friendly relationship.
(This piece was written before the BJP conceded defeat.)